IDP Spotlight: LB Jon Beason, Carolina Panthers

  Posted 7/21 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Everyone loves Jon Beason right now. He's a second-year linebacker who burst onto the scene in Carolina as a rookie to log 140 combined tackles (106 solo) and finished 10th overall for all linebackers in 2007. Beason finished strong, registering 57 solo tackles and two turnovers (one fumble recovery and one interception) in his second half of his first season in the NFL. It would seem that savvy IDP players would be all over Beason as a primary LB value.

Before we anoint him as he lines up for season number two, there are some legitimate concerns about Beason's role and teammates for this coming season. Carolina's front seven from last season was a motley crew of misfits, veterans, and overall a group of players whose performances were rather underwhelming. DE Julius Pepper had one of his worst seasons ever, which left more tackles on the table for Beason and company.

Let's examine that "and company" for a moment. Just how bad were the Panthers at linebacker aside from Beason? Strong side linebacker Thomas Davis was second for Carolina with 72 solo tackles - and the only player aside from Beason at DL or LB that broke 50 solo tackles. So what does that mean for 2008?

Carolina's projected starters this year include Beason, Davis and someone - which is a concern. Beason will either be in the middle or on the weak side, which are both strong IDP spots, but if rookie Dan Connor (Penn State) does well in training camp he may line up and steal some tackles. Another possible problem for Beason's numbers is that Carolina's offense should be better than last year, as they struggled without a healthy Jake Delhomme. If the offense is more productive, the defense will likely be on the field less, giving Beason fewer tackles.

Positives

• Second year in the league and first full season as a starter
• Projected numbers from second half have him at 115+ solo tackles if he maintains that pace for the full year
• Defensive line is still not formidable, aside from Julius Peppers switching end positions to go after the quarterback more often
• A tackle machine with over 120 combined tackles despite not being a starter at the beginning of the season

Negatives

• Carolina is banking that the move of Peppers to the right side will improve their defense, but Beason may see fewer opposing tailbacks running at him through a porous front seven if that happens
• The Panthers should be better this season, which means that the defense will be on the field less often
• Rookie Dan Connor may join in with the group, especially if Carolina does not have a legit chance at a postseason. If Connor delivers like he did at Penn State, Beason will likely lose tackles
• Beason is more of a tackler, so any fantasy leagues that emphasize big plays will be somewhat disappointed with Beason
  

Final Thoughts

Jon Beason is likely to finish among the Top 10 IDP linebackers this year, but there is room for some concern about just projecting his second half of 2007 numbers for a full campaign. Beason had 57 solo tackles from Week 10 to Week 17, but bear in mind that the Panthers were not very good over that stretch (a record of 3-5 and scoring fewer than 17 points per game). Beason's teammates also let him down as far as support, which is great for his stats but bad overall for the team. Expectations are higher for Julius Peppers to contribute more as he switches ends, so fewer running backs may make it to that second level. There is also the possibility for Beason to wind up back at the weak side position, making room for Dan Connor and limiting his upside. Beason is also more of a tackle magnet than a big play specialist, as he had only one fumble recovery and one interception last season with zero sacks. If you are looking for a linebacker who could finish with 100-120 solo tackles as a best case scenario but not much as for sacks or turnovers, Beason could be your guy. Just keep in mind that as Carolina improves, Beason could play just as well or better than last season yet still not reach 100 solo tackles.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

benm3218:
"Based on other published reports I do not expect Dan Connor to make an impact this year. I see Beason owning the position he had last year and stepping up more so than in 07. Beason is the leader on the defense and I see him being used that way confidently in 08. I would be happy to have Beason as my starting LB in a league that utilizes them. I also find he is still flying under the radar for those in a 3 or 4 man IDP league."

Jayrod:
"For the last nine games of the season, Beason had no fewer than 7 combined tackles and averaged 7.5 solos per game over that stretch. Weeks 4-6 were solid games as well. Had he been the starter all year long, his year-end tackle numbers would have been second only to Willis. Luckily for us in the know, he didn't and he is flying a bit under the radar this season...at least lower than he should be. Thanks to that, I just won him in an IDP auction as the #8 LB (and our scoring system is tackle heavy).

Since all reports are that Connor is going to be a backup this year, Beason should be free to replicate last season's late success for the entire season. Solid LB1 and depending on scoring system, possible top 3."

Zoomanji:
"I know no one will agree with me here but I think Beason ends up at WLB (maybe not till next year but eventually). For this year he'll still be a top 5 guy but I see a dip in tackles because Connor will be on the field at MLB. I expect INTs and sacks to be good though. Connor is the 2nd best LB on that team. He was a better prospect and faster than Pos last summer but somehow he dropped this far? I have a PSU bias but I still find all that hard to believe. He'll be far better than Diggs or L. Johnson and he fits better at MLB. Of course I could be hugely wrong here but that's the way I see it. Fox and his terrible line-up decisions don't help the argument for or against him either."

eric rymer:
"As long as he stays in the middle, I would expect slightly better numbers as he grows into his role as the leader of this crew."

tex:
"Dan Morgan's best year at MLB for the Panthers was 2004 when he had 101 tackles with 78 solos. But he only played 12 games. This would compute to about 135 tackles and 104 solos over a 16 game schedule. Beason had 140/106 last year. I see no reason Beason can't surpass those #'s if he stays at MLB, which I think he will. He'll be top 5 for a few years."

Chachi:
"For Jon Beason, I pretty much see a repeat of his 2007 season as far as the stats are concerned. At present time I am very uncommitted about the role of Dan Connor in the future who could push himself into the MLB role and relegate Beason to the WLB role, but for the time being this is not the case for the 2008 season and Beason should have a very solid year, similar to last season. I am going to uptick Beason just a bit from last year because 2 of his first 3 games were his biggest stinkers of the entire season. In the last 14 games of 2007, Beason was very consistent and had double digit fantasy points in almost every game. He is a very safe option for 2008 and I would be slightly surprised if he doesn't finish in the top-10 assuming he's fully healthy, but in 2009 I am not so sure what his role will be."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety