IDP Spotlight: OLB Freddie Keiaho, Indianapolis Colts

  Posted 8/8 by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

A few keys in disentangling the pros and cons with Keiaho, and attempting to decode his likely projection for the 2008 season...

His upside is vast, not so much from any intrinsic talent (though he has flashed impressive ability in relatively limited action, and appears to have the combination of physical tools and natural talent to transcend being just a "scheme player"), but due primarily to the momentous role he plays as starting WLB for the Colts. Over the past half decade or so it has been a star making position, first for current Jaguars MLB Mike Peterson, than for Titans SLB David Thornton and immediately preceding Keiaho, Bucs OLB Cato June (coming full circle, widely thought to be the heir apparent to Derrick Brooks, "prototype" of the Cover Two WLB and the physical embodiment template that Dungy brought with him from Tampa Bay to Indianapolis).

Downside is probably more limited, and is specifically related to the simple question of whether he can stay healthy... which after last season's checkered medical history is still very much an open question.

For a more detailed breakdown of pros and cons:

Positives

• Keiaho is a tremendous athlete, who rushed for over 4,000 yards and 57 TDs as a star CA prep RB.
• He is very active in run support and has a nose for the ball, with outstanding instincts, first step, playing speed and open field tackling ability (if he hadn't missed five games and played hurt in a few others due to injury, Keiaho was pacing for about 95 solo tackles in 2007, which would have been in the top 10 LBs, near stud MLBs Kirk Morrison and E.J. Henderson... he needs to track for that kind of tackle production to avoid disappointing, as thus far in his still nascent NFL career he hasn't exactly been a big play maven).
• The Colts WLB position has been a fantasy gold mine in recent years, with his predecessors Mike Peterson, David Thornton and Cato June all lighting it up (albeit over the course of more complete seasons - hard to put up massive numbers missing nearly a third of the season).
• At just 25, he should get nothing but better with more experience.

Negatives

• Keiaho is far from proven or entrenched, with less than a season as the starting WLB under his belt.
• He was banged up a lot with multiple injuries in his first extended action, and needs to prove he is robust and resilient enough to absorb the physical pounding and withstand the extreme punishment an NFL LB is subjected to.
• Keiaho is typically "undersized" for a classic Cover Two WLB at a near safety-like 5'11" 225, which could add to his injury risk.
• For longer range dynasty purposes, the Colts change WLBs like most people change cell phones... because they don't require a prototypical size/strength/speed physical specimen to play LB at a high level within their scheme, it makes it easier for them to identify and develop replacements and reload when needed (Peterson had the highest pedigree coming from the 2nd round and Keiaho also a day one pick going in the 3rd, Thornton went in the 4th and June carried a pedestrian 6th round grade, for what its worth).
  

Final Thoughts

To sum up, Keiaho's current FBG staff consensus ranking is LB27, right behind D.J. Williams and A.J. Hawk and ahead of Thomas Howard and Chad Greenway. If he misses a third of the season again he could plummet all the way out of the top 60 LBs... if he stays healthy and improves with experience, he has the kind of potential and upside to penetrate the top 20 LBs.

Prediction is a dark art, especially when it involves forecasting unknowables such as injuries (except for Dan Morgan, who got hurt with the precision and regularity of the atomic clock). The above projection tries to strike a balance between pessimistically assuming something approximating last season's five DNPs, but also not necessarily taking a complete 16 game season as a given. The fact that Keiaho had multiple injuries and did miss a substantial part of the season in his very first year getting a crack at the starting gig is a little ominous, and should arouse at least a minimal level of skepticism about his ability to stay healthy (until he gives cause over a more extended period to think otherwise).

To extend some dynasty thoughts in the negatives section above, Keiaho is almost caught in a kind of pincer movement between a few different but ultimately negative forces relating to the probability of a long term future with Indy. A corollary of the fact that the Colts different requirements for a LB in their scheme makes it easier for them to find replacements (than perhaps other teams with more exacting and demanding requirements) is that LBs just aren't valued as much as some other positions within the Colts defensive positional hierarchy... such as DL. Peterson, Thornton and June were all allowed to walk rather than re-upping.

Adding to that, even if the Colts were so inclined to uncharacteristically make a financial commitment to a WLB, they would be in a difficult position to do so (especially if Keiaho plays well, increasing the chance he effectively prices himself out of the Colts market). For years the IND defense were treated like the ugly, freckled, redheaded stepchildren in contract matters, with such a disproportionate amount of the cap locked up in offensive super stars like Manning, James, Harrison and Wayne. But now, with the Colts somewhat surprisingly extending defensive anchors Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders (at or near the top of the food chain in salaries for their respective positions), they would be even less able to squeeze a high priced WLB under the cap.

So enjoy the production while you can, because it may not last for long. David Thornton had his value blown up BEFORE becoming a free agent, when he was shunted to SLB to accommodate Cato June (though Thornton is a bigger 235 lbs, and the possibility of a similar scenario with Keiaho unfolding is probably more remote). Lastly, just as it paid off to scope out who was waiting in the wings when, most recently, June was the incumbent, so to with Keiaho. Is an up and coming young player like Clint Session the possible heir apparent, or is it a prospect not currently on the roster?

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Rozelle:
"We have been schooled through the years that WLB in Indianapolis = Big time production. A few weeks back Dungy reveal Freddie played with a bum elbow last year. He's expected to be the starter and as long as he's healthy, good production should follow. Keiaho has the qualities you look for in a LB for the Tampa-2/Cover-2 scheme. He's a good athlete, has speed, sideline to sideline ability, can get deep in coverage and cover a lot of ground. Add in his intangibles, good instincts, great motor and nose for the ball and you have the recipe for a very good LB."

Tatum Bell:
"I think he is more likely to exceed 80 solo tackles than fail to reach it, as long as he's healthy."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety