IDP Spotlight: LB D.J. Williams, Denver Broncos

  Posted 7/21 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

After a couple of nondescript seasons playing strongside linebacker, D.J. Williams played middle linebacker for the first time in 2007 and racked up 141 tackles, which was second to Patrick Willis among LBs. Despite the high tackles numbers, the Broncos are moving Williams to WLB as they overhaul their LB corps in an attempt to improve a defense that was 30th against the run last year. Williams has not played WLB since the last few games of his rookie season.

Williams was moved to MLB last season and finally rewarded his patient owners in 2007, winding up with 106 solo tackles and finishing third in fantasy points among LBs. Despite those gaudy tackle numbers, the Denver run defense was a sieve and they are making changes across the board. The Broncos fired defensive coordinator Jim Bates and cut longtime WLB Ian Gold. Free agent Niko Koutouvides is expected to replace Williams in the middle. The move to WLB is likely to have a significant impact on his fantasy prospects this year, namely because of an expected decrease in his tackle numbers.

There is little doubt that Williams has the athletic ability and speed to be an effective WLB, but that does not necessarily mean he will be an elite fantasy LB like he was at MLB. The fact is his tackle numbers are likely to decline significantly and that alone should drop him from his lofty 2007 finish. The peripheral numbers hold the key as to how far he drops. He has not put up many big play numbers in his four years.

Positives

• D.J. Williams is one of the most athletic LBs in the league and can make plays from sideline to sideline.
• He is versatile, having started at all three linebacker positions during his four years with the Broncos.
• Williams is durable and has never missed a game in the NFL.
• He is fast and athletic enough to cover TEs and RBs in pass defense.

Negatives

• Despite having over 140 tackles last year, Williams was not the force in run defense that his tackle numbers suggest.
• Although Williams has the athletic ability to make a lot of big plays, his peripheral numbers have been rather pedestrian.
• He has yet to take a stranglehold at any of the three LB spots he has played at.
• Williams has been inconsistent throughout his career.
  

Final Thoughts

D.J. Williams had some huge tackle numbers in 2007 while playing MLB. There is little doubt that those numbers will be lower this year. The peripheral numbers will play a big role in determining where Williams will finish in the LB standings. Despite the gloom and doom sound of things, all is not lost. Williams played a handful of games at WLB towards the end of his rookie season and had four consecutive games with 10 or more tackles, so there is a precedent there. I believe he can keep his solo tackle numbers in the low to mid 90s. Williams should have more big play opportunities playing on the weak side, and if he can take advantage of that and increase his big play numbers, he could be a solid mid to upper LB2 this year.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Rozelle:
"About all I know is … Bates out Slowik in, DJ bounces out to "Will". I haven't paid much attention to DJ and Denver's LB situation, be nice to know more about Slowik. Per Dave Kreiger/Rocky Mountain News (5/19/08) "The numbers got considerably better after the bye week (9), when power shifted from Jim Bates to Bob Slowik and an eighth defender was allowed in the box". I don't know what to expect out of DJ this year. Does Slowik use a right/left alignment? Who will play in the middle and how will the play of the "Mike" affect DJ's numbers? I don't look for him to put up anything close to the tackle numbers he had last year."

obxlegends:

• 2004 - Na'il Diggs 14 Games 69/19/1
• 1999 - Jamir Miller 15 Games 93/23/4.5
• 1997 - Barry Minter 16 Games 65/27/6

These are the last 3 weakside linebackers I could find in a Bob Slowik led defense. Obviously Jamir Miller's season jumps off the page the most. I would also compare Williams more favorably to Miller in talent than Diggs or Minter. This isn't to suggest Williams will mirror those numbers, but the potential is there."

BigSteelThrill:
"DJ is a linebacker who likes to attack laterally. He is/was terrible at taking on lead blockers of the lineman variety at MLB. A switch to WLB to handle TEs and FBs is a much better fit. Two players could have an effect on Williams year-end results: Dumervil and Koutuvides. Dumerville getting more playing time is a bad thing as he doesn't eat up blockers and will play in front of Williams. That could get him hammered by guards and tackles more frequently than you would like. Niko on the other hand, is very limited. And that should allow plenty of chances for Williams to chase down tackles. Moving out of the middle hurts, but he should be the best tackle stat compiler for the Broncos."

Aaron Rudnicki:
"He didn't make that many big plays, but Williams racked up a ton of tackles at the MLB spot last year. He finished with 106 solo tackles and 35 assists, which was nearly double his production from the year before when he was still at SLB and didn't play in the nickel very often. Now, the Broncos are apparently moving him back outside to WLB, which was the position he played during his impressive rookie season.

With Al Wilson and Ian Gold now gone, Williams is clearly the best and most talented LB on the Broncos roster so I expect him to keep playing in the nickel and dime packages. I also think he has the range to chase down plays all over the field, even stealing some from the MLB whether it winds up being Koutivides or Webster. The Broncos pass rush should also be improved thanks to the return of Ebenezer Ekuban and continued improvement from 2nd year pros Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder. That should give Williams a good chance to improve on his career highs in sacks (2) and INTs (1). If he can improve his big play numbers slightly and still wind up with 85 to 90 solo tackles, I think Williams will remain right in the LB2 range for most IDP leagues."

Weiner Dog:
"For whatever reason, DJ does not garner the respect he deserves. Let's look at the check-down...

1. Is he talented? Check...former 1st-round blue-chip prospect with the ability to play all three downs.
2. Is he productive? Check...when playing non-SLB, he has easily topped 100+ tackles.
3. Does he stay healthy? Check...has never missed a game in 4 NFL seasons.

I have to believe uneducated owners downgrade DJ because of his '05 and '06 seasons. I'd have to assume they do not understand the position switches of DJ over the past 4 seasons. DJ has Top-10 talent and I believe he has an outside chance at Top-10 numbers as a WLB this year (ala his '04 rookie season)."

Chachi:
"With the move to WLB, DJ Williams takes quite a hit in the tackle department. He is a very talented player and will be as solid as a LB2 out there. With him being freed up to do a little more freelancing, I see his big plays going up this year but it won't be near enough to make him a LB1 as he was last year. He should be a good performer for a long time to come, as he's a smart player with great athleticism who is clearly heads and shoulders better than any other LB on the Broncos roster. I wouldn't be shocked to see a move back to the middle and I would be even less shocked to see a move to the strongside. He's a safe option as long as he doesn't get moved to an even less desirable position."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety