IDP Spotlight: CB Brandon Flowers, Kansas City Chiefs

  Posted 8/4 by Bob Magaw, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Flowers loves to tackle and he is going to a place where he should have plenty of opportunity to do what he does best. Thought to be a potential 1st rounder, he didn't miss by much as the 35th overall selection in the 2008 draft. If Flowers had run a better 40 time in the predraft evaluation stage (turning in a sub-optimal 4.5), he might have gone in the top half of the 1st round.

Several CBs were graded higher or taken ahead of Flowers in the 1st round (including Leodis McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins and Antoine Cason). However, Flowers could be the rookie CB representing the most promising intersection of talent and opportunity in his class, and should therefore be of keen interest for IDP purposes.

Positives

• Mike Mayock called Flowers the best tackling CB he had scouted in the past half decade (Antoine Winfield could be a comparable player in terms of size and pound-for-pound tackling ability), and KC employs the very CB tackle-friendly Cover Two scheme. Also, given the Rookie CB rule (they are tested repeatedly until they play well enough to discourage further probing for weaknesses), it could be a "Perfect Storm" confluence of skill set and opportunity from multiple directions.


• He isn't one dimensional and also flashed athleticism, coverage ability, ball skills and a playmaker's flair with a career 10 INTs, 32 PD and 2 TDs at Va. Tech.


• The KC offense is undergoing a several year tear-down and rebuild of the OL, nobody knows if QB Brodie Croyle is starting material and the offense could struggle mightily this season, so the Chiefs stop unit could see more action than a beer bong at a Matt Leinart pool party.


• The defense has a gaping hole at CB with the departure of Ty Law, Flowers was running with the first team in OTAs, is already signed and has HC and former NFL DB Herm Edwards as a mentor to ease his transition from college to pro.

Negatives

• Not many, athletically, talent, opportunity or scheme-wise... his most glaring weakness may be a lack of elite speed, but a 4.5 is plenty fast for a Cover Two CB.


• Like all rookies, he is unproven in coverage, which is a huge jump from college to pro. Even if he is as good as advertised in run support and as an open field tackler, that may not be enough to overcome coverage deficiencies if he becomes too grave a liability in the passing game.


• The Chiefs lost not only their best defender but one of the best in the NFL at any position when they traded away DE Jared Allen to the Vikings (for the 1st rounder used as ammo to acquire much needed OL Branden Albert), which could give opposing QBs more time to survey the field and step into their passes... this effect could be partly mitigated by the addition of fifth overall pick in the 2008 draft, Glenn Dorsey, who many scouts have called the best interior DL prospect since future HoFer Warren Sapp.


• The dreaded "Rookie Wall" could be looming. It is a rare rookie with the stamina and endurance to make it through the grueling 16 regular season games unscathed coming from college's relatively much lighter work load.
  

Final Thoughts

The FBG Staff consensus ranking has Flowers as a top 20 CB and top 40 DB, but that could prove conservative. Going by his consensus ranking, he is a marginal starter in leagues that break out DBs into S and CB, and a depth-type in those that don't. As recently as last season, Jets rookie CB Darrelle Revis was a top 10 DB in most leagues regardless of format (even accounting for his reduced second half split production). While Flowers may not have the prodigious athleticism and elite, blue-chip pedigree and measurables of Revis, he is a ruthlessly efficient tackler in a scheme that has made stars in recent years of Ronde Barber, Charles Tillman and the Colts up and coming young tandem of Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden.

Flowers is extremely confident, to the point that some personnel-types found him brash and cocky. But confidence in a CB is a desirable trait. Even the best young CBs get burned at times, and having the short memory, mental toughness, ability to remain composed under pressure and the internal resiliency to deal with challenges and obstacles is essential to success at the next level. Should IDP owners extend the same confidence to Flowers? If he plays up to his potential, he could easily be the top CB and DB overall from the class of 2008. Taking a cue from Revis last season, Flowers may be a very pleasant surprise and offer massive upside for risk tolerant IDP owners.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

tex:
"Rookie CBs always get picked on so they usually have pretty nice stats and high rankings. I love me some rookie CBs."

Jayrod:
"He'll take a while to get used to the speed of the game, but will get a lot of action. Herm's system can produce some good numbers for a corner as well, so I expect some good tackle numbers but am conservative with the big plays. He's likely to be a good backup in tackle heavy leagues, but I'd wait a year to see if he can produce many big plays."

Tick:
"He seems to fit the Cover-2 mold, so lots of tackles but not as many big plays. I could see a couple fumbles forced and recovered, though."

Duckboy:
"Alert, rookie CB, alert! Loads of talent meets loads of opportunity. Borderline DB2/3, top 10 start-CB."

The Jacket:
"I like Flowers for many of the reasons listed above, but also because he's physical. The boy can hit. One of the best tackling CB prospects I've seen in a long time. I love TE Tony Gonzalez, but I also loved seeing Flowers just destroy him in a recent training camp practice. I think he'll get the usual benefit of rookie CB stats, and I will add some juice to it because of how physical he is. I'm excited to see him jack up Randy Moss in week one. And, for IDPers, he'll probably give up a lot of catches, too!"

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety