IDP Spotlight: LB Antrel Rolle, Arizona Cardinals

  Posted 7/21 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Antrel Rolle was a trendy sleeper in 2006 after moving into the starting lineup full time at cornerback. He didn't disappoint, running up 79 solo tackles and double digit passes defended on his way to a top 15 finish among defensive backs. Last season, Rolle's tackle production slipped to 52 solos, but he rode a huge week against Cincinnati (2 INT returns for TDs) to another top 30 finish.

This season, the Cardinals will be moving Rolle to free safety, where he will be expected to play a roving big play role. On the surface, Rolle's skill set - physical tackler and big play cover guy - would look to be a nice IDP fit at the traditionally inconsistent free safety position. What will the move do for Rolle's production? Will he fall in the Ed Reed/Ken Hamlin bucket or explode into Madieu Williams/Gibril Wilson territory?

We do have a little information to draw upon to make an educated guess. After Adrian Wilson shut it down for the season, the Cardinals used more nickel schemes than they had previously. Rolle was used in the slot and between the hashmarks in a "robber"-like role. Not only did his big play numbers improve (five interceptions versus zero earlier in the year), his tackle numbers did as well, projecting into the mid-60s.

However, this season, Rolle will have to battle a healthy Wilson and Karlos Dansby for pursuit tackles. His value in zone coverage will likely keep him in a centerfielding role while Wilson roams the box. Both of those adjustments will make it hard for him to hit 65 solos. And even at 65 solos, Rolle would have to rack up the big plays again to have any consistent IDP starting lineup impact. He looks much more likely to finish as Ken Hamlin v2007 did rather than ascend to the mid DB2 tier.

Positives

• Move to free safety could highlight his tackling and big play skills
• Big play value could make up for deficiencies in tackle opportunity
• Small chance he could move back to corner, where he has more consistent value

Negatives

• Likely to play a roving centerfielder role like Ken Hamlin and Ed Reed
• Competing with pursuing studs Karlos Dansby and Adrian Wilson for tackles
• Likely to be very dependent on big play stats making him an inconsistent lineup option
  

Final Thoughts

Rolle has the look of a guy that could overcome some of the limitations of the free safety position and put up top IDP numbers. But his tackle production will depend on whether he can beat two very good players to the ball. He's at risk of falling victim to the same scheme issues that have made All-Pro caliber talents like Ed Reed and Ken Hamlin afterthoughts in many leagues. Rolle is another classic risk-reward play. He's capable of 70 solos, six INTs and 15 PDs and DB1 value. But he's also capable of 50 solos and just enough big plays to tease his owners into starting a replacement level player all season long.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Rozelle:
"I think Rolle will excel in his move from CB to FS. Whisenhunt said, "He looks like a natural for the position." Coming out of Miami, many scouts thought his future was at safety and he could be a Pro Bowler there, not sure why it took Arizona so long to make the move. Flashed his big play ability last year picking 5 and taking 3 to the house. He'll be an under the radar DB/S, who has tremendous upside. I think he's going to surprise some people."

Beefeaters:
"He was expected to take it to the next level at CB but never quite made it there. He's still young though and this move to Safety should really help his IDP value. That said, I get tired of waiting on certain players to live up to their potential. I would probably once again take a chance on Rolle because of the shift in position, but something tells me I might end up disappointed... again. Make or break year for Rolle. Hopefully he realizes that and plays it hard."

Aaron Rudnicki:
"Rolle didn't seem to live up to expectations as a CB because he lacks great recovery speed and was sometimes slow to react, but playing safety should give him a little more time to anticipate plays because he'll have a full view of the field and the QB. With Adrian Wilson playing up in the box and blitzing a lot, Rolle should be very active in the deep secondary and could easily be headed for a breakout season. In 2005 and 2006, Robert Griffith played FS for the Cardinals and averaged 3.5 solo tackles/game despite being 35 years old and at the very end of his career. A young athletic player like Rolle should have a chance to improve on those numbers and possibly hit 70+ solo tackles. Rolle had never been much of a playmaker, as evidenced by his 5 interceptions in 4 years at Miami, but he seemed to turn the corner last year when he picked off 3 passes from Carson Palmer and returned all 3 for TDs (although the third was called back on a penalty). If he can put up 4 or 5 interceptions again, he has a chance to finish among the top-10 safeties in 2008."

massraider:
"Rolle is one of those sneaky guys I am keeping my eye on. I think his value will be very league-specific. In big-play leagues I think he has some value, but I wonder if he'll get enough tackles from the FS position to help most owners as a starter. Also, Rolle may find himself listed as a CB on some league sites. Not MFL, but if your league is run on ESPN, for example, and is a CB-required league, he represents big time value."

tex:
"I agree with massraider. I think Rolle will have more value in big play leagues since he has never been a tackle monster."

Chachi:
"Antrel Rolle has the potential to be great but I don't see it ever materializing, I agree with most people who said his value is more geared towards big play leagues and less valuable in tackle heavy leagues. The shift from corner to safety should help his tackle numbers but then on the other hand it seems Adrian Wilson will clean up before Rolle gets to the target. I see Rolle as a DB3 at year's end but not somebody who I would want to count on because he puts up a lot of very weak games. I would have him on my team but only as a 4th option at best. I am looking at his assists to get a nice bump this year as I see him and Wilson combining on quite a few tackles. For this season I am tempering expectations even in big play leagues due to the adjustment to his new role."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety