IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid - Week 8
Posted 10/23 by Jene Bramel and Larry Thomas, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Each week, this column will take a critical look at a few key statistical trends to highlight the pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another new feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections and Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly lineup and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of "good" and "bad" matchups color coded early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
Okay, enough of the disclaimers, let's look at our highlighted matchups for Week 6. To check any of this week's pass rush or tackle matchups, make sure to check out the Sack Opportunity Analyzer and the Tackle Opportunity Analyzer sheets within the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet.
Pass-Rushing Matchups to Exploit
St. Louis front seven at New England
The Patriots are allowing an average of four sacks a game for the season and have allowed 15 sacks and 22 quarterback hits in their last three games. Last week, in a blowout win in Denver, Matt Cassel was still hit 11 times and sacked six. The Ram front four is packed with healthy pass rushers at this point - Little, Long, Hall, Glover and Carriker are all able to put pressure on the quarterback. Expect the trend to continue for St. Louis this week, who themselves have sacked opposing quarterbacks 11 times over the past three games.
New York Giants front four at Pittsburgh
The Steeler offensive line may have pitched a shutout against the Bengal defensive line last week, but that's indicative of how poor the Cincinnati pass rush is than any immediate improvement by a Pittsburgh line that had allowed Ben Roethlisberger to be hit 32 times in the four games prior. The Giant defense closely resembles the Philadelphia defense that sacked Roethlisberger nine times and knocked him down 12 times in Week 3. There should be plenty of opportunity for the Giant front four this week.
Pass-Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Indianapolis front four at Tennessee
The Titans have protected Kerry Collins very well in recent weeks, allowing only two sacks all season and none in their past four games. With the Indianapolis run defense likely to be exploited by the Tennessee running game, the combination of few pass rush opportunities and one of the league's toughest offensive lines to beat should keep Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney out of the sack column this week.
Arizona front seven at Carolina
How is it that the team with the league's highest pressure applied percentage per offensive pass attempt finds itself highlighted as a matchup to avoid? Carolina has allowed only one sack in four games and has been very good at home this season. Something has to give here and we're betting it'll be the pass rush of Travis LaBoy and the rest of the Arizona 'tweeners.
|
Team
|
Pressure
|
QB
|
QB
|
Adj Pass
|
|
Applied
|
Sacks
|
Hits
|
Att Faced
|
|
|
2007 Lg Avg
|
11.3%
|
2.13
|
3.99
|
35.4
|
|
2008 Lg Avg
|
12.2%
|
2.13
|
4.13
|
33.8
|
|
Arizona
|
19.7%
|
3.00
|
6.50
|
33.0
|
|
Atlanta
|
8.7%
|
1.67
|
3.17
|
36.5
|
|
Baltimore
|
14.4%
|
2.17
|
4.67
|
32.3
|
|
Buffalo
|
14.7%
|
2.00
|
5.00
|
34.0
|
|
Carolina
|
7.9%
|
1.57
|
2.57
|
32.7
|
|
Chicago
|
10.3%
|
2.00
|
4.43
|
43.0
|
|
Cincinnati
|
11.5%
|
0.71
|
3.43
|
29.9
|
|
Cleveland
|
13.9%
|
1.50
|
3.83
|
27.7
|
|
Dallas
|
17.2%
|
2.86
|
5.86
|
34.0
|
|
Denver
|
10.6%
|
2.29
|
3.71
|
35.0
|
|
Detroit
|
8.7%
|
2.00
|
2.67
|
30.7
|
|
Green Bay
|
15.2%
|
1.71
|
5.29
|
34.9
|
|
Houston
|
12.4%
|
1.50
|
3.50
|
28.2
|
|
Indianapolis
|
11.3%
|
1.83
|
3.33
|
29.5
|
|
Jacksonville
|
10.3%
|
1.33
|
3.50
|
34.0
|
|
Kansas City
|
5.1%
|
0.50
|
1.33
|
26.0
|
|
Miami
|
13.6%
|
2.50
|
4.33
|
31.8
|
|
Minnesota
|
13.6%
|
2.29
|
4.71
|
34.7
|
|
New England
|
10.4%
|
1.67
|
3.00
|
28.8
|
|
New Orleans
|
12.9%
|
2.00
|
4.71
|
36.4
|
|
N. Y. Giants
|
12.4%
|
3.50
|
4.17
|
33.7
|
|
N. Y. Jets
|
12.6%
|
3.17
|
4.83
|
38.3
|
|
Oakland
|
10.0%
|
2.67
|
3.50
|
35.2
|
|
Philadelphia
|
14.3%
|
3.50
|
4.83
|
33.8
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
14.8%
|
4.17
|
5.67
|
38.3
|
|
St. Louis
|
10.2%
|
2.33
|
3.17
|
31.2
|
|
San Diego
|
8.3%
|
2.29
|
3.43
|
41.1
|
|
San Francisco
|
9.8%
|
1.86
|
3.43
|
34.9
|
|
Seattle
|
12.0%
|
2.33
|
4.00
|
33.3
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
15.5%
|
1.57
|
5.29
|
34.0
|
|
Tennessee
|
17.3%
|
3.00
|
6.50
|
37.5
|
|
Washington
|
10.5%
|
1.29
|
3.71
|
35.3
|
Strong Matchups in green. Weak Matchups in red.
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Indianapolis defenders at Tennessee
The Titans are likely to run and run often against the Colts weak run defense this week. With the combination of a quick, outside threat like Chris Johnson and a punishing, inside runner in LenDale White, everyone on the Colt defense is likely to see favorable tackle opportunity. Marlin Jackson and Melvin Bullitt should continue their nice tackle trends, with Gary Brackett and Freddy Keiaho having productive weeks as well.
Oakland defenders Vs Baltimore
The Ravens continue to pound the ball on the ground, leading the league with over 35 rush attempts a game. With the Raider offense highly unlikely to get far enough ahead of the Ravens to force Baltimore to abandon their run first game plan, the Raiders should see plenty of tackle opportunity. In addition to Kirk Morrison and Gibril Wilson, this should be a better-than-average week for Thomas Howard.
Detroit defenders Vs Washington
This is a perfect storm for the Detroit defense. They face a ball control offense firing on all cylinders while their struggling offense faces one of the best defenses in the league. The Redskins should dominate time of possession and could approach 40 rush attempts on the day. Paris Lenon has not been productive regardless of matchup, but both Ernie Sims and Daniel Bullocks could have double digit solos this week.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Washington defenders at Detroit
The Lions have killed the production of nearly every linebacker unlucky enough to face them this season. DeMeco Ryans' five solo tackles were a very impressive feat last week. The Lions, now seven weeks into the regular season, are providing a historically bad 40 tackle opportunities per game and could see that average drop still further against one of the best defenses in the league. London Fletcher will have an uphill climb to five solos this week and Rocky McIntosh and Chris Horton are also likely to struggle.
Jacksonville defenders Vs Cleveland
The Jaguars are very likely to limit their own tackle opportunity by getting off the field quickly at home against the inconsistent Cleveland offense and spend plenty of time on the sideline as their offensive teammates control the clock against a shaky Cleveland defense. Mike Peterson's string of tough matchups continues.
|
Team
|
Tackle
|
Rush Att
|
Pass Att
|
Offensive
|
Run
|
|
Ops
|
Faced
|
Faced
|
Snaps Faced
|
Percentage
|
|
|
2007 Lg Avg
|
49.8
|
27.3
|
35.4
|
62.7
|
43.6%
|
|
2008 Lg Avg
|
49.2
|
27.5
|
33.8
|
61.3
|
44.8%
|
|
Arizona
|
46.3
|
23.3
|
33.0
|
56.3
|
41.4%
|
|
Atlanta
|
49.7
|
26.8
|
36.5
|
63.3
|
42.4%
|
|
Baltimore
|
41.8
|
23.3
|
32.3
|
55.7
|
41.9%
|
|
Buffalo
|
47.5
|
26.3
|
34.0
|
60.3
|
43.6%
|
|
Carolina
|
46.0
|
26.7
|
32.7
|
59.4
|
45.0%
|
|
Chicago
|
49.7
|
23.0
|
43.0
|
66.0
|
34.8%
|
|
Cincinnati
|
54.0
|
34.9
|
29.9
|
64.7
|
53.9%
|
|
Cleveland
|
49.0
|
30.5
|
27.7
|
58.2
|
52.4%
|
|
Dallas
|
47.6
|
25.1
|
34.0
|
59.1
|
42.5%
|
|
Denver
|
54.9
|
28.7
|
35.0
|
63.7
|
45.1%
|
|
Detroit
|
56.5
|
35.0
|
30.7
|
65.7
|
53.3%
|
|
Green Bay
|
47.9
|
29.0
|
34.9
|
63.9
|
45.4%
|
|
Houston
|
46.7
|
27.5
|
28.2
|
55.7
|
49.4%
|
|
Indianapolis
|
55.3
|
34.7
|
29.5
|
64.2
|
54.0%
|
|
Jacksonville
|
47.0
|
24.8
|
34.0
|
58.8
|
42.2%
|
|
Kansas City
|
52.7
|
36.8
|
26.0
|
62.8
|
58.6%
|
|
Miami
|
47.8
|
27.2
|
31.8
|
59.0
|
46.0%
|
|
Minnesota
|
46.0
|
24.0
|
34.7
|
58.7
|
40.9%
|
|
New England
|
45.3
|
26.0
|
28.8
|
54.8
|
47.4%
|
|
New Orleans
|
46.7
|
25.6
|
36.4
|
62.0
|
41.2%
|
|
N. Y. Giants
|
44.3
|
22.5
|
33.7
|
56.2
|
40.1%
|
|
N. Y. Jets
|
52.7
|
26.5
|
38.3
|
64.8
|
40.9%
|
|
Oakland
|
52.2
|
29.8
|
35.2
|
65.0
|
45.9%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
46.7
|
25.8
|
33.8
|
59.7
|
43.3%
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
49.0
|
23.7
|
38.3
|
62.0
|
38.2%
|
|
St. Louis
|
52.5
|
32.2
|
31.2
|
63.3
|
50.8%
|
|
San Diego
|
55.1
|
26.7
|
41.1
|
67.9
|
39.4%
|
|
San Francisco
|
52.9
|
31.6
|
34.9
|
66.4
|
47.5%
|
|
Seattle
|
54.8
|
31.5
|
33.3
|
64.8
|
48.6%
|
|
Tampa Bay
|
44.6
|
24.6
|
34.0
|
58.6
|
42.0%
|
|
Tennessee
|
48.2
|
24.7
|
37.5
|
62.2
|
39.7%
|
|
Washington
|
42.6
|
22.4
|
35.3
|
57.7
|
38.9%
|
Strong Matchups in green. Weak Matchups in red.
Trends From The Matchup Sheet
For those leagues that use corrected stats, take note. The NFL Gamebook initially had Buffalo with a TEAM sack, NYJ with TEAM sack, seven solos a FF, and Oakland with two TEAM solos before correcting the stats midweek.
- Buffalo has given up 25 QBH in their last three games. Last week Vs San Diego, zero.
- New Orleans average 38.7 APAF (Adjusted Pass Attempts Faced) but had only 23 last week Vs Carolina.
- Houston had a + 20:08 TOP over Detroit (40:04 to 19:56)
- Tennessee did not allow a sack for the fourth consecutive game.
- Kansas City has one sack in their last five games and only three for the year.
- Tennessee had 40 rush attempts to Kansas City's 17, but only had +1:40 TOP.
- Tampa Bay had a whopping + 23:22 TOP over Seattle (41:41 to 18:19)
- The Broncos surrendered 3 sacks and 7 QB hits Monday night Vs New England, after allowing only two and four respectively in the first six games.
- Detroit (56.5), Indianapolis (55.3), and San Diego (55.1) are all averaging over 55 tackle ops per game. There are eight teams who are yet to have a 55 tackle op game.
- New England is the only team who has not allowed 20 completions or more, on the flip side, San Diego is the only team who has yet to yield less than 20.
- Detroit only team who has allowed at least 30 rush attempts in every game.
- The Cincinnati Bengals rank 31st in sacks with only five, a 0.7 per game average, but rank 18th in Pressure Applied.
- Pittsburgh has as many sacks (25) as Jacksonville (8), Washington (9), Kansas City (3) and Cincinnati (5) combined.
- Detroit is dead last in TOA (Tackle Ops Allowed) averaging 40.0 per game, nine below league average. They are also the only team who has yet to have a game over 50.
This feature will be a work in progress all season long. We welcome all suggestions and feedback to bramel@footballguys.com.
