IDP Matchups to Exploit and Avoid - Week 16

  Posted 12/17 by Jene Bramel and Larry Thomas, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Each week, this column will take a critical look at a few key statistical trends to highlight the pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another new feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections and Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly lineup and waiver wire decisions.

Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.

The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.

The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.

We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of "good" and "bad" matchups color coded early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.

Okay, enough of the disclaimers, let's look at our highlighted matchups for Week 6. To check any of this week's pass rush or tackle matchups, make sure to check out the Sack Opportunity Analyzer and the Tackle Opportunity Analyzer sheets within the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet.

Pass-Rushing Matchups to Exploit

Now that nearly everyone reading this column is in the thick of the playoff bracket, we're going to forego some of the textual analysis in favor of pointing out more matchups (where appropriate) and potential additions for those looking to get some big upside into their lineups.

Indianapolis front four at Jacksonville

Both sides of this matchup bucked established trends last week. The Colt defensive ends mustered no pass rush against what had been a poor Detroit offensive line and the Jags, who had allowing the most quarterback hits in the league, shutout the Packer linemen. Still, it's hard to turn our backs on months of solid data, so we're back on the bandwagon with both the Colts and the Jacksonville matchup this week.

New Orleans front four at Detroit

We're also expecting the Detroit matchup to revert to form and provide favorable pass rush opportunity for both New Orleans ends this week. Will Smith and Bobby McCray both make good high upside plays.

Miami front seven at Kansas City

The Dolphins got back on track against the Niners last week, with both OLBs getting in the sack column. It shouldn't take Joey Porter until the last play of the game to get a sack this week and Matt Roth is also a consideration as a desperation play.

New York Jets front seven at Seattle

The Jet front seven is healthy and can come at a still scuffling Seattle offense from multiple angles. It's difficult to predict who might break through, but Shaun Ellis, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas all have a shot at a big day. There could be sacks for the ILBs or secondary as well.

Philadelphia front four at Washington

The Browns offensive line focused on the Eagle defensive line last week, and, with the exception of Trent Cole's solid effort, shunted the pass rush number to the back seven. That's unlikely to happen again this week. Juqua Parker and Darren Howard should again be considerations if you're looking for upside in your lineup.

Pass-Rushing Matchups to Avoid

Detroit front four Vs New Orleans

No rocket science here. The Saints don't give up sacks and the Lions have trouble generating pressure. This isn't a great week to hope you've guessed right on Dewayne White or Cliff Avril.

Pittsburgh front seven at Tennessee

This might be the worst possible matchup at the worst possible time for James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley. The Titans have given up eight sacks this season and only one multi-sack game, and get a Pittsburgh team that hasn't been scoring in bunches at home. Woodley should be on the bench in all but the most sack heavy systems and Harrison owners have to hope he breaks through with a solid tackle effort to buffer the bad matchup.

Tampa Bay front Vs San Diego

Despite the three sacks allowed to Tamba Hali and Jason Babin last week, the Chargers can still be a rough matchup for pass rushers. Though the Bucs are one of the better teams at generating pressure this season, the line is banged up. It's not a good combination for Gaines Adams and company.

Minnesota front four Vs Atlanta

Unless you have other equally studly options, it's impossible to bench Jared Allen or Kevin Williams in a tackle required league. But the Falcons allowed only one sack last week and have allowed just two in the past six weeks. There's not much upside here this week.

Strong Matchups in green. Weak Matchups in red.

Tackle Matchups to Exploit

Atlanta defenders at Minnesota/Minnesota defenders Vs Atlanta

There's likely to be plenty of rushing attempts on both sides of this matchup. This is definitely a week to consider using Curtis Lofton and Lawyer Milloy, who has cleaned up on a per play basis this week and shouldn't be forced off the field in nickel packages as often. Keith Brooking and Coy Wire, though rotating, aren't bad plays either. The Vikings should also see solid opportunity, with Chad Greenway a potentially above-average option this week.

Dallas defenders Vs Baltimore

The Cowboys turned a very good tackle opportunity trend around last week, forcing the Giants to throw over 70% of the time with Brandon Jacobs out. They face a similar matchup this week, though the Ravens will almost certainly run the ball constantly unless their defense can't hold the Dallas offense down. Bradie James again makes a good play this week, with Zach Thomas a risky, but reasonable, consideration.

New York Giants defenders Vs Carolina/Carolina defenders at New York Giants

Both sides of this matchup look favorable as well. With Brandon Jacobs looking likely to return, Thomas Davis joins Jon Beason as a must start this week. Antonio Pierce should rebound from a shaky effort last week against a Panther offense that could run the ball 30 times.

Pittsburgh defenders at Tennessee

The Titans have been a favorable matchup, making Aaron Smith, Travis Kirschke, James Farrior and Troy Polamalu above-average tackle options this week.

Tackle Matchups to Avoid

Cincinnati defenders at Cleveland

There's barely any above replacement level talent on the Bengal defense right now and the Cleveland offense has been terrible. Start any Cincinnati defender at great risk this week.

New Orleans defenders at Detroit

This is a matchup that's been risky for opposing tacklers all season long. While outside linebackers have been decent plays in some weeks, it's still hard to trust Scott Fujita or Scott Shanle in a playoff lineup. And if you've got any other reasonable option, it's probably best to not risk Jon Vilma this week either.

Houston defenders at Oakland

The Texan defenders have been up and down all season. The Raiders have shown the propensity to drop a tackle opportunity stinker at any time. It's not a great combination for those considering DeMeco Ryans or any of the other Houston linebackers. It might be worth taking a flier on Morlon Greenwood or Eugene Wilson, who both could see coverage duty on Zach Miller, but both are longshots to have big value this week.

New York Jets defenders at Seattle

The Seahawk offense is a tough read, but the lack of consistency in all phases of their offense makes all Jet defenders risky tackle options this week. Consider other options over David Harris, Eric Barton and Kerry Rhodes this week where you have them.

Strong Matchups in green. Weak Matchups in red.

Trends From The Matchup Sheet

• Arizona had a league low seven rush attempts last week Vs Minnesota. The prior league low for 2008 was 10 in week 13 bye... Arizona. The Cards have 54 rush attempts over their last four games, 13.5 per week, NFL average is 27.4.
  
• NFL Gamebook showed N.Y. Jets DB Abram Elam as a starting OLB, Buffalo opened with three receiver set; Jets were likely in a nickel sub package.
• Per NFL Gamebook, Denver opened the game with a 4-4-3.
• Last week Vs Indianapolis was the first game all season Detroit did not allow a sack, they also did not allow a QBH, prior to this, they had not had a game of less than three QBH.
• Kansas City sacked San Diego's Phillip Rivers three times last week. The Chiefs only had six sacks for the year coming in.
• Only twice this year has Tennessee has allowed a rusher to eclipse 100 yards, Houston' Steve Slaton has both of them.
• Only two teams have not faced at least 55 Tackle Ops in a game this year, Baltimore and Jacksonville.
• Dallas has 20 sacks over the last three weeks.
• Washington has 35.7 RAF (rush attempts faced) average over the last three weeks.
• The Detroit Lions have had just one game in which they reached five PDs (Pass Defensed) the NFL average per game is 4.7.

Games With 10 Minutes or Better TOP (Time Of Possession) Advantage

• San Francisco plus 16:26 TOP (38:13 to 21:47) Miami 62-35 Tackle Op advantage.
• Philadelphia plus 15:50 TOP (37:55 to 22:05) Cleveland 61-33 Tackle Op advantage.
• Houston plus 12:44 TOP (36:22 to 23:38) Tennessee 55-39 Tackle Op advantage.
• Buffalo plus 10:58 TOP (35:29 to 24:31) N.Y. Jets 59-41 Tackle Op advantage.
• New Orleans plus 10:18 TOP (36:32 to 26:14) Chicago 57-45 Tackle Op advantage.

This feature will be a work in progress all season long. We welcome all suggestions and feedback to bramel@footballguys.com.