IDP Value Plays

Posted 8/19 by IDP Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the top players and identify players that should outperform their draft position.

The following writers contributed to this article: Aaron Rudnicki, John Norton, Jene Bramel, Bob Magaw, Sigmund Bloom, Anthony Borbely, and Jeff Pasquino.

Defensive Linemen

DE Aaron Schobel, BUF (ADP: DE15)

John Norton - Schobel is consistently among the most undervalued players in the game. His respectable ADP of #15 probably reflects his career low 6.5 sacks from last season but those numbers are the exception and not the rule. Since 2003 Schobel has consistently been in the 45 tackle and double digit sack range. '07 was the first time in 5 years that he failed to land in the top 10 and much of that can be attributed to the rash of injuries that had a major effect on the Bills defense in '07. Over his career he has traditionally started slow and finished very hot just when we need him. He's a top 10 DL in any league.

Jene Bramel - After Jared Allen, there's a glut of players that have 45 solo, 12 sack potential. But there's no way Chris Long and Will Smith should be drafted ahead of him. If your league mates are going to allow his 6.5 sack season in 2007 to push Schobel's four consecutive top ten (and two top five) finishes from 2003 to 2006 so easily from their memories, you'll be laughing your way to a stud DL corps with Schobel as your DL2.

Aaron Rudnicki - Over the last 6 years, Schobel has averaged 42 solos, 18 assists, 10 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. During that time period, he's played all but 1 game and has finished top-5 twice, top-10 four times, and top-15 last year. He got off to another of his slow starts in 2007 but finished strong with 27 solos and 4 sacks in the last 8 games. Despite the drop in sacks for him last year, he continued to put a lot of pressure on opposing QBs and his level of play remained very strong, as evidenced by him being selected to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. The addition of Marcus Stroud inside, along with a healthier surrounding cast, should give Schobel a chance to finish among the top-5 fantasy DEs again.

Sigmund Bloom - Schobel struggled along with a defense that was riddled with injuries for the first three months of the season, but he came on with sacks in four straight games from week 13-16. There are no signs of a drop-off in Schobel's ability, last year he was just hampered by a weak supporting cast and offense that rarely put the Bills in the lead. This year he gains man mountain Marcus Stroud on the defensive line. Schobel also was a top 10 DE from 2003-2006, and he's very likely to return to those ranks this year.

DE Leonard Little, STL (ADP: DE28)

Bob Magaw - Little had been one of the most explosive and disruptive DEs in the game for the half decade before a lost season in 2007 due to a toe injury. Early reports from training camp have been positive, and he has been running well. The infusion of talent from 2007 1st round DT Adam Carriker and 2008 2nd overall pick in the draft Chris Long as a bookend DE can't hurt. If he is indeed all (or most) of the way back, DD sacks and top 10 DE are definitely within reach.

John Norton - How quickly people forget! Just the season before last Leonard Little piled up 56 solo tackles, 12 sacks, 6 forced fumbles and a top 5 finish. A toe injury ruined his '07 season and now suddenly he's no better than the #28 DL? Don't make the mistake of thinking that. The toe required surgery but has healed, and the Rams coaching staff has nothing but praise and high expectations for Little in '08. With Chris Long on the other side, Little even has the bookend he had been missing in previous seasons. He may not make the top 10 but don't expect him to finish far from it.

Sigmund Bloom - Leonard Little's toe injury has been surgically repaired, and now he gets to play opposite #2 overall pick Chris Long. Going into last season, Little had been a top 15 end four out of the last five years. Last year, the Rams got blown out in his five of his seven games, which should certainly get better in 2008.

DE Robert Mathis, IND (ADP: DE26)

Aaron Rudnicki - Mathis had a disappointing season last year, finishing with just 26 solo tackles and 7 sacks. However, he put up 46/11 and 50/9 the two seasons prior to that and finished among the top-10 DEs in both seasons. It looks like he could see more time at RDE if Freeney is slow to recover from his foot injury, so he might be able to do more damage as a pass rusher coming from the QB's blind side. Mathis is undersized to be an every-down DE but he is very difficult to block one on one and he has great range to chase down plays in pursuit. He's being drafted like a backup or spot starter in most leagues but he could easily produce like a DE1.

Sigmund Bloom - Mathis started out cold last year, but he came on to post five sacks in the five games before he sprained his knee vs. Baltimore. He also displayed his propensity for separating the QB from the ball, with four even in a down year. Mathis is flipping to Dwight Freeney's normal position of weak side end to start the season, and he's in his prime at 27 years old. Mathis' proven top ten upside (back to back DE7 finishes in '05 and '06) is a steal as your DE3.

DE Adewale Ogunleye, CHI (ADP: DE14)

Jeff Pasquino - The Bears are going to be on the field a lot this year on defense. That's normally not a good thing, but for IDP players it is a blessing. "O-gun" was a Top 5 defensive lineman last year, and he was the only DL that finished in the Top 10 with fewer than 10 sacks. That's right - he actually has room to improve and finish again in the Top 5. I'll take that from a player who can be had outside of the Top 12 defensive lineman in most fantasy drafts.

DE Derrick Burgess, OAK (ADP: DE21)

Aaron Rudnicki - Burress had a hard time staying healthy early in his career with the Eagles, but since joining the Raiders in 2005, he has played in 46 of 48 possible games. During his 3 seasons in Oakland, he has averaged 42 solos, 7 assists, and 12 sacks. Seems incredible that a player with that type of production can be drafted on average as the 21st defensive end off the board. He did have a miserable start to 2007 when he recorded just 8 solos and 1 sack in his first 6 games, but he blew up with 24 solos and 7 sacks in his last 8 games. The upgrades the Raiders have made in their secondary by trading for DeAngelo Hall and signing Gibril Wilson should provide Burgess with plenty of sack opportunities. Only 2 seasons removed from an amazing 52 solo, 16 sack season, Burgess clearly has top-5 potential if he can stay healthy.

DE Abraham, John ATL (ADP: DE27)

Sigmund Bloom - It's hard to think of Abraham as a deep sleeper since he's one of the best rush ends in the league. Abraham consistently plays at a low DE1/high DE2 level. He did drop to a low DE2 last year, but that's because the Falcons were behind a lot and he only had raw rookie Jamaal Anderson on the other side. Anderson and the Falcons will be better this year, and Abraham should once again be a safe DE2.

Linebackers

LB Antonio Pierce, NYG (ADP: LB29)

Jene Bramel - Pierce projected to 98 solos in 2006, finished with 109 solos in 2007 and was on pace for another 95+ solo season last year before an ankle injury limited him down the stretch last year. The Giants lost superb run defending DE Michael Strahan, WLB Kawika Mitchell and SS Gibril Wilson, all of whom were very productive in the tackle column. Pierce should finish at least 10 spots above this ADP.

Aaron Rudnicki - Since becoming a full-time starter at MLB in 2004, Pierce has averaged 88 solos and 26 assists per year along with a fair number of big play stats. He's also been pretty durable, having only missed 3 games over the past 4 seasons (all came in 2005). While his 109 solo tackle season with the Giants in 2006 looks like an outlier, he clearly has 100 solo and top-10 LB potential. Pierce is a leader of the Giants defense who is strong against both the run and pass, and he should continue to play in all downs and situations. The loss of Gibril Wilson, one of the best tackling safeties in the league, could also result in some additional tackle opportunities for Pierce. If he can stay healthy, I'd be surprised to see Pierce finish outside the top-15 fantasy LBs at the end of the season so he represents excellent value as the 29th LB off the board.

Sigmund Bloom - Pierce was down in 2007 after a second half ankle injury slowed him, but an ADP of LB29 is just ridiculous. He's an every-down 4-3 MLB who is only one year removed from a top 10 finish. Pierce produced at a top 10 clip in the first half of '07, so don't be surprised if he returns to the ranks of LB1s this year.

LB Mike Peterson, JAX (ADP: LB32)

John Norton - I'm not sure how a guy like Peterson ends up being the #32 LB off the board on average. I sure wish I was in some of those leagues. Peterson turned in back to back 90+ tackle, top 10 finishes in 2004 and 2005. He missed most of 2006 with a torn pectoral and was on pace for a 96 tackle season through 10 games last year when he broke his hand. He's been very durable over the course of his career so the injuries in back to back season are merely a coincidence, not a sign that he's injury prone. Peterson was the #14 LB off the board in our highly competitive staff IDP league, and should never fall much further than that.

Anthony Borbely - Peterson has a history of injuries that has caused many to overlook him, but he also has a history of being productive. Players like this are usually overlooked in drafts. Draft Peterson with confidence.

Bob Magaw - Peterson had been one of the top MLBs in the league before being hit by some fluky injuries. He should be playing angry all season as the Jaguars have opted to not extend him for now and he is playing for a contract. Peterson easily has top 15 LB upside and at LB32 offers ridiculous value.

LB Zach Thomas, DAL (ADP: LB38)

Bob Magaw - Thomas does have risk as he isn't getting any younger and is coming off a down year in which he missed about two thirds of the 2007 season with lingering post-concussion symptoms. But LB38??? At that point, he has very little risk and massive upside. He has played in the 3-4 before, and early reports suggest he looks fast, is making plays behind the LOS and has been performing convincingly like his serial Pro Bowler incarnation in MIA. If the (DAL) stars are aligned, Thomas could be the SOD and the disconnect between the potential upside he offers IF healthy and his current LB38 value roars off the page.

Sigmund Bloom - Zach Thomas might not be quite as prominent a presence in Dallas as he was in Miami, but he's a veteran linebacker with a nose for the ball. While his run as a perennial top 10 LB is now over, Cowboys defensive coordinator Brian Stewart has said he expects Thomas to lead the Cowboys in tackles. Remember that the concussion that ended his season in 2007 was caused by a car accident, not a hit on the field.

LB Derrick Johnson, KC (ADP: LB34)

Bob Magaw - DJ has been one of the most physically and athletically gifted and talented young LBs in the league, laboring in relative anonymity from the generally IDP-unfriendly SLB position. While the Lions Ernie Sims is viewed by some of the heir apparent to the aging Derrick Brooks as the top WLB in the game, an anticipated switch to the weak side for Johnson in 2008 could propel him to the apex of his position. On the bonus plan, the Chiefs D could get more work than Matt Leinart's beer bong.

LB Channing Crowder, MIA (ADP: LB41)

Jene Bramel - 3-4 ILBs are among the most controversial options in IDP leagues. While it's true to 2-gap ILBs will struggle to be as valuable as their 1-gap 3-4 and 4-3 counterparts, who else in the Miami front seven is a serious threat to steal the tackles from Crowder? Akin Ayodele? A lineman? Charlie Anderson? With as much as the Dolphin defense may be on the field, there's no way that Crowder doesn't belong among the top 25 linebackers.

LB Freddie Keiaho, IND (ADP: LB43)

Aaron Rudnicki - From 2002 to 2007, the #1 WLB spot for the Colts has been filled by 4 different players (Mike Peterson, David Thornton, Cato June, and Freddie Keiaho). During that same time period, those players have averaged 86 solos, 31 assists, and 3 INTs. The Colts continue to play the same Tampa 2 scheme that funnels plays to the WLB and has helped Derrick Brooks average nearly 100 solo stops/year over his 13-year career. Keiaho only managed to play in 11 games last year but the numbers he put up in those games would have projected out to 93 solo tackles and 25 assists. That type of upside is a steal for the 43rd LB off the board.

Bob Magaw - Keiaho is the latest culminating point in a lineage of star Dungy Cover Two WLBs (Peterson, Thornton, June and Brooks extending back to TB). An early elbow injury caused him to miss some games and left him an effectively one-armed tackler for much of the season, yet his prorated production over a full season projects close to a top 10 LB in tackles. He was a star prep LB and has the athleticism to boost his overall numbers with a few big plays.

LB D'Qwell Jackson, CLE (ADP: LB44)

Jeff Pasquino - Cleveland added two big tackles up front this offseason, which should translate to a lot of room to run for their linebacking corps. This is what has been missing for Jackson, as now he gets to go after the tight ends and running backs looking for space over the middle and through the center of the defense. Expect Jackson to rack up much bigger numbers than in season's past and finish much higher than his current ADP of LB44.

LB Keith Brooking, ATL (ADP: LB47)

John Norton - When the Falcons drafted Curtis Lofton everyone seemed to automatically write Brooking off as a dead horse. That may be a little premature. Lofton may be the Falcons stud of the future but Brooking is not ready to ride off into the sunset. There are a couple of very interesting points here. The club has announced that he will wear the defensive communications helmet. That tells us that Brooking is going to play on every down. Then there is the face that he will move back to his natural WLB position. The last time he lined up at WLB he racked up 126 solo tackles. Brooking's numbers have slipped since that time but he hasn't totaled fewer than 84 solo stops or finished outside the top 20 since before the '02 season. He's not a top 10 guy at this point but is far more valuable than his ADP of #47 at the LB position.

Defensive Backs

CB Brandon Flowers, KC (ADP: CB15)

Aaron Rudnicki - Over the past 5 seasons, there have been 5 rookie CBs that have finished among the top-10 at the end of the season and Flowers will likely join that group this year. Generally, rookie CBs see a lot of attention from opposing QBs, which gives them plenty of opportunities for tackles and interceptions. Flowers is also a physical player who should be very active in run support on a defense that will likely be on the field a lot. Expected to be a starter right away in the Chiefs new Tampa 2 zone, which is generally very conducive to CB scoring, Flowers has an excellent chance to finish the year as a top-5 fantasy CB.

Jeff Pasquino - Flowers is a shutdown corner, beyond question. The reason that he did not put up big numbers in his final season at Virginia Tech is that the ACC knew just that and avoided his side - yes, he is that good. Expectations are high for Flowers and they should be, because shutdown corners are hard to come by in the NFL. Grab him if you can.

S Rodney Harrison, NE (ADP: S28)

Jene Bramel - Harrison is an injury risk, but the 28th safety off the board? That's unpossible. Harrison made 69 solos, two sacks, two INTs and nine passes defensed in 14 games (including the playoffs) last year. The Patriot defense lost two corners, a starting safety and two starting linebackers from that team. Their replacements are solid players, but a healthy Harrison could again rack up numbers and smash that ADP.

Jeff Pasquino - The Patriots are going to be hurting for defensive help in the box this year, even worse than last season. Harrison is already lining up as a linebacker on occasion in training camp, so expect higher tackle numbers and big hits from the savvy veteran. Nabbing him outside of the Top 25 safety fantasy picks is a huge value.

S Gibril Wilson, OAK (ADP: S7)

John Norton - Wilson is the #7 safety off the board on average. While that is a pretty high draft slot, it's still too low for this guy. Wilson racked up 92 solo stops in '05. Would have reached 80+ in '06 had he not missed a game and was the #9 safety last year when he totaled 78 tackles despite missing 3 games. Not only is he a tackling machine, he's a big play threat as well with 6 sacks and a hand in 20 takeaways in his 52 career games. The is some concern with the change of teams but now that we see how he is being used, Wilson could be even more productive. The Raiders are lining him up as an in the box SS in most situations. The last time he did that was the previously mentioned '05 season. Wilson should fall no further than the #4 DB/S off the board.

S Donte Whitner, BUF (ADP: S18)

Bob Magaw - Whitner has a very well rounded game, combining outstanding coverage ability and ball skills with perhaps the best open field tackling ability among DBs in his class. He has played more of a centerfielder role to start his career, but the return of good looking second year MLB Paul Posluszny from injury and the addition of new defenders Marcus Stroud, Kawika Mitchell and prized 1st rounder Leodis McKelvin from trade, free agency and the draft should help stabilize the defense and allow the DC to get creative and turn the multitalented Whitner loose in more of a playmaking role. With another year of development and experience, look for him to take a big step up this season and join the ranks of the elite young safeties in the game.

S Chris Hope, TEN (ADP: S22)

Sigmund Bloom - Chris Hope's season ended with a scary spinal cord injury, but all signs from training camp are that his surgery was a success and he's back to his old self. Once the Titans came to their senses and moved Michael Griffin back to free safety, Hope broke out of his tackling slump, with five solos in three of the four full games he played with Griffin and two interceptions. He might not be the #1 safety again, but he'll be much better than the 22nd best safety in 2008.

S Brian Dawkins, PHI (ADP: S24)

Aaron Rudnicki - Dawkins was a top-5 safety in 2005 and 2006 before falling off last year in an injury-shortened season in which he only played in 10 games. He will turn 35 years old in October so there's valid cause for concern that he could be slowing down and near the end of his career, but he remains one of the most important members of the Eagles defense. The addition of Asante Samuel at one CB spot should solidify the pass defense and help free up Dawkins to be more aggressive. If healthy, I think Dawkins can be a top-12 safety this season.

CB Charles Tillman, CHI (ADP: CB10)

Jene Bramel - Tillman has finished right around the CB10 slot over the past two seasons. Still, his value lies in his consistency and upside. Many of the players above him are significant risks to finish well outside the top 10. Tillman's floor is much higher.

CB Cedric Griffin, MIN (ADP: CB14)

Sigmund Bloom - Griffin was already the #9 CB last year (and a mere 5 points from CB5), and that was without a starting quality rush end on the Vikings roster. With the addition of Jared Allen, Griffin can become even more aggressive, and he's likely to add some big plays after leading all corners in solo tackles last year.

CB Ronde Barber, TB (ADP: CB16)

Anthony Borbely - Barber had an off year in 2007 and like Peterson, is being overlooked in drafts. He was a regular in the top ten DBs prior to last year. Older players like Barber are often bypassed in favor of younger, unproven players. He has fallen almost off the radar in drafts and makes for a solid later round addition to your lineup.