IDP Deep Sleepers

Posted 8/19 by IDP Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the top players and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position.

The following writers contributed to this article: Aaron Rudnicki, John Norton, Jene Bramel, Bob Magaw, Sigmund Bloom, Anthony Borbely, and Jeff Pasquino.

Defensive Linemen

DE Charles Grant, NO (ADP: DE32)

Bob Magaw - Understandably overshadowed in recent years by the extremely talented Will Smith, Grant also had an exceptional first few seasons in an auspicious start to his pro career, before the wheels came off somewhat in recent years, probably in large part due to injuries which could be behind him. The Saints draft day coup of moving up for high 1st round DT Sedrick Ellis should be huge for Grant and Smith. NO has a potent offense and there are expected to be no shortage of playmaking opportunities for the DL in 2008.

Aaron Rudnicki - Grant's career got off to a great start when he put up 28.5 sacks over his first three seasons, but he's put up just 12 in the three seasons since then. Despite the drop in sack totals, however, Grant makes up for it with his impressive tackle numbers. He's averaged 3 solo tackles/game during his career and that helps make him a very consistent player to rely on from week to week. He played hurt for much of last year but is expected to enter 2008 healthier and ready to live up to the huge contract he signed. The addition of Bobby McCray could push him inside on passing downs, but that's not necessarily a negative as his quickness could present some mismatches. Given that he has finished among the top-12 DEs in 3 of the past 5 years, Grant looks like a steal as the 32nd DE off the board.

DE Dewayne White, DET (ADP: DE29)

Anthony Borbely - White had a strong start to the 2007 season (24 solos, 5 sacks) before an arm injury drastically reduced his effectiveness. If you just look at his final numbers from last year, you will only get half the story. He is being drafted in many leagues as a DL3. He should be a solid DL2 and he represents great value this year.

DE Chris Clemons, PHI (ADP: Unranked)

Jeff Pasquino - The Eagles added the former Raider to become a part of their aggressive defensive scheme as a pass rushing specialist. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson loves to blitz if he believes in his secondary, and having a strong pass rush is a key to his scheme. Look for Clemons to come out of nowhere and finish with double-digit sacks this year.

DE Turk McBride, KC (ADP: Unranked)

Jene Bramel - McBride found himself in Herm Edwards' doghouse after a so-so 2007 rookie season and looked buried on the depth chart even after the Chiefs dealt Jared Allen early this summer. The recent news that McBride is taking snaps with the first team at left end should shoot him up the draft boards, however. He may have 40 solo, 6-7 sack potential if the light goes on for him and would be a very high upside target in leagues that require defensive tackles.

DE Ebenezer Ekuban, DEN (ADP: Unranked)

Anthony Borbely - Ekuban missed the 2007 season due to a torn Achilles tendon and is largely being ignored in drafts. He had 48 solos/7 sacks in 2006, so he has done it before. I would keep an eye on how he plays in preseason. You could get a solid player for next to nothing.

DT Tommy Kelly (ADP: DT12)

Jene Bramel - Derrick Burgess and Leonard Little are other sick values at the DL position, but it's hard not to highlight Kelly. A healthy Kelly as a three-technique defensive tackle has 40+ solos and multiple sacks written all over him. Not only is a DT12 ADP a serious value, there's an argument that Kelly belongs in the top 20 DL overall with that potential. Kelly is a guy that has averaged a projected 54 solos per 16 games over his last two seasons and will get better pass rushing opportunity this season. He was on pace for a second consecutive top three DT finish in 2007 before an injury cut his season short. He's potentially as relatively valuable at the DT position as Antonio Gates once was at TE.

DT Domata Peko, CIN (ADP: Unranked)

Jene Bramel - Bengal observers are again pointing to Peko as a breakout candidate this season. Peko put up 36 solos and a couple of sacks in a rotational role last year and could do even better if he gets snaps as a three-technique tackle on base defensive downs. If he plays well enough to earn the bulk of the nickel snaps at DT, he could be a rosterable option in all leagues.

Linebackers

LB Thomas Davis, CAR (ADP: LB54)

Bob Magaw - Like Derrick Johnson, Davis was one of the most talented LBs in his class, and also moves to WLB in 2008. After bouncing around at safety and SLB to begin his career, he will finally get a chance to flash the skills that made him so highly graded coming out of college. Davis could out-produce his LB54 ADP by 30+ spots.

Sigmund Bloom - Davis has moved to the weak side, but even if he hadn't, he was still a solid bye week/injury LB in 2007, and deserving of more respect than a rank of LB54. Will Witherspoon was an elite IDP LB in 2004 in this role, and Davis definitely has the talent to reproduce that kind of performance. He's the kind of high upside forgotten LB that makes waiting on the position a perennially good strategy in IDP leagues.

Aaron Rudnicki - Having shown improvement during every year that he's been in the league so far, Davis could be ready to take a big jump this year with the team moving him from SLB to WLB. He was already one of the most productive strongside linebackers in the league, but now he'll be able to chase down plays from behind instead of having to take on blockers head on. He should also be more effective as a blitzer since he'll be playing on the same side as Julius Peppers, who should draw plenty of attention, and he'll be rushing from the QB's blind side. If things go well, he could wind up as a lower LB2 or strong LB3 in most leagues.

LB Gerald Hayes, ARI (ADP: LB56)

John Norton - Hayes was a respectable 81-16 in the tackle columns last season, adding 4 sacks and a pick to land among the top 30 linebackers in most scoring systems. He remains on the field in passing situations and when the club lines up in a 4-3 (about 25% of the time) he is their MLB. In '07 Hayes posted 6 or more fantasy points in 14 games, reaching double digits 6 times. Barring an injury to Karlos Dansby, Hayes is not going to be the headliner in Arizona, thus he doesn't have huge upside. He will however, make a quality #3 starter and far out produce his ADP of #56 at the LB position.

Aaron Rudnicki - Hayes was a frustrating player early in his career because most people knew he had the potential to be a productive starter but he just could not stay healthy. He's managed to turn things around the past two years playing in 30 of 32 games, and has broke 80+ solo tackles in each season. He's also shown some big play potential with 5 sacks and 4 interceptions during that time period. Given how well he's done and the fact that he's still just 27 years old, it doesn't make much sense that he's being drafted as the 56th LB off the board. If he can stay healthy again, he might outperform his ADP by 30 spots or so this year.

LB Rocky McIntosh, WAS (ADP: LB50)

John Norton - McIntosh is his way back from a serious knee injury and the club is being very careful with him. He hasn't been practicing in contact drills which will continue to make him available in the very late rounds. While there is considerable risk with McIntosh, the potential reward is great. He was absolutely on fire over the first half of last season, going 54-13-3 with a pair of forced fumbles before being slowed by injury and eventually landing on IR. The Redskins are optimistic that he will be able to return in time for the opener. In fact recent reports suggest that he would be playing now if the games counted. He's flying way under the radar and could be the steal of the draft if he can return to anywhere near pre-injury form.

LB Justin Durant, JAX (ADP: LB52)

Jene Bramel - Durant is going to win the starting ROLB job in Jacksonville by opening weekend. He'll easily be a LB4 value when he does. Should he win a role in the nickel defense, he has significantly higher upside than LB 52. You can get him as your LB5/LB6 without sweating in most leagues right now. He may not take the path to LB2 numbers that many expected this season (replacing Mike Peterson at MLB) but he may get there anyway.

LB Bart Scott, BAL (ADP: LB55)

Jeff Pasquino - Scott has promised to bring back "the mad linebacker" mentality to his game, and he has been living up to it so far in training camp. Scott finished as a Top 20 LB in both 2006 and 2005, so if you can grab him outside of the first 50 linebackers in your draft - that's a potential for amazing value for your fantasy team.

LB Matt Wilhelm, SDC (ADP: LB59)

Sigmund Bloom - Matt Wilhelm generated some excitement in IDP circles after he was pegged to take over Donnie Edwards position in San Diego's 3-4, but an early season injury dampened enthusiasm. He produced more like an LB in the 20's than one in the 50's after he returned - at a 120 total tackle pace over the last 12 games of the season. He'll be quality depth at worst for pennies on the dollar.

LB Anthony Waters, SD (ADP: Unranked)

Anthony Borbely - Waters is one of my favorite sleepers. He may have been a first round draft pick last year if not for a knee injury. He has a chance to start early in the season while Stephen Cooper is suspended. Dynasty leaguers who have enough roster space should be picking him up as soon as you read this.

LB Xavier Adibi, HOU (ADP: Unranked)

Jeff Pasquino - The only person standing between Adibi and a starting linebacker job for the Texans is Morlon Greenwood. This just in - Greenwood's not that impressive. Adibi will show everyone why he was drafted by Houston and what made him a standout linebacker for the Virginia Tech Hokies. Look for him to become a starter by 2009 at the latest and possibly post some impressive fantasy games in the second half this year.

Defensive Backs

S Brandon McGowan, CHI (ADP: S29)

John Norton - The ADP of #29 among safeties for McGowan is largely reflective of the many drafts that took place in June and July, and the large number of fantasy owners who failed to do their homework. This guy was very productive in the games he started last season and has all but locked up a starting job with his outstanding play during camp. After the Bears first preseason game, McGowan should be shooting up draft boards everywhere. He made a huge impression against the Chiefs when he was 5-1 in about a quarter and a half of action. If not for a penalty canceling out one play, he would have been 6-1. He made a tackle in the backfield, met the RB in the hole a couple of times and made some plays in coverage as well. The only thing that could keep him from making the top 20 DBs overall in '07, is the ankle sprain he suffered shortly after the Chiefs game. He has 3 weeks to get over that and return to the lineup for the opener. Once he gets healthy, McGowan is going to be very productive

Sigmund Bloom - Once the Bears finally removed Adam Archuleta from the starting lineup, Brandon McGowan made a big impact in run defense. He averaged five solo tackles in his eleven starts. It didn't even take McGowan a full half to get five solos in his first preseason game. He'll be in the box a lot and should score like a DB2 in any format.

S Yeremiah Bell, MIA (ADP: Unranked)

Jene Bramel - Bell will be an in-the-box strong safety on a defense that should see a well above-average number of snaps. He's proven himself a steady tackler and big play producer. He's been well off the radar all offseason long, with most IDP owners choosing the grab Jason Allen as a sleeper candidate. Unless you're in a league with a bunch of folks who've been reading FBG over the past month, you can get Bell for less than peanuts. He belongs well within the top 20 overall safeties.

Anthony Borbely - Bell has had a great camp and is the starting strong safety for a bad team. He should see a ton of opportunities and is another player who is being overlooked in drafts. He lacks name recognition, but he is likely to put up solid fantasy numbers.

S CC Brown, HOU (ADP: Unranked)

Aaron Rudnicki - Brown isn't a flashy player but he's steady and has averaged 65 solo tackles over the past two seasons while starting 31 of 32 games. While he can struggle in coverage, he makes up for it with his big hits and aggressive playing style. Brown finished last year as the #15 ranked safety yet he is currently being drafted outside of the top 200 IDPs. Tough to beat that type of value.

S Quentin Mikell, PHI (ADP: Unranked)

Jeff Pasquino - The Eagles had a human speed bump playing safety last year in Sean Considine, who somehow kept his job for most of the year despite Mikell's impressive play all year long. That error was corrected this season as Mikell is already hitting hard and often in the 2008 preseason. If you need a safety who can rack up tackles and make some plays in coverage, stash Mikell on your fantasy roster.

S Reed Doughty, WAS (ADP: Unranked)

Aaron Rudnicki - Doughty took over the starting SS job in Washington midway through last season and wound up recording 31 solos and 18 assists in the last 8 games. Although coverage isn't a strength of his and he's unlikely to record more than an interception or two, he's become a favorite of the coaching staff and should see plenty of time up in run support with LaRon Landry being kept at FS. The Redskins have been effective blitzing their safeties in the preseason, which could mean a handful of sacks for Doughty this year if that trend continues, particularly now that they have a bookend set of pass rushers with Andre Carter and Jason Taylor drawing attention away.

CB Cortland Finnegan, TEN (ADP: CB20)

Bob Magaw - Finnegan was one of the top tackling CBs in the league in 2007, and it didn't look like a fluke. The Titans recently showed their confidence in his ability for a repeat performance and possible improvement by locking him up to a lucrative extension. If he plays up to his potential, he could have top 15 DB overall upside, and easily out-produce his CB20 status.

CB Fred Bennett, HOU (ADP: CB29)

Sigmund Bloom - Fred Bennett didn't even see the field until week 5 last year, and he still finished as CB25. He was a top 10 CB from then on, and he goes into 2008 as the Texans de facto #1 CB until Dunta Robinson returns. He'll be picked on as much or more as he was a rookie, and his sure tackling should place him in the top 15 CBs at worst.

CB Kelvin Hayden, IND (ADP: CB32)

Bob Magaw - Hayden was nearly a top 20 DB overall last season. The Colts Cover Two is a very CB tackle-friendly system. IND has such a potent offense that there should be plenty of playmaking opps. Bookend CB Marlin Jackson is also a great athlete, talent and IDP prospect, but Hayden could have the greater upside of the two, as he was a relatively late convert to defense from offense in college, is still growing into the position and should get nothing but better.

CB Johnathan Joseph, CIN (ADP: Unranked)

Jene Bramel - Joseph has proven himself a capable coverage player, with 35 passes defensed in his two seasons. Those two seasons included mostly nickel snaps as a rookie and a few so-so games last year while he got himself back into game shape after a training camp stress fracture last year. He began turning some of those PDs into INTs late last season and has been impressive this offseason. He should add a few solo tackles to his big play/PD numbers this season and finish among the top twenty corners.