IDP Overvalued Players

Posted 8/19 by IDP Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top players and identify players that should under perform their draft position.

The following writers contributed to this article: Aaron Rudnicki, John Norton, Jene Bramel, Bob Magaw, Sigmund Bloom, Anthony Borbely, and Jeff Pasquino.

Defensive Linemen

DE Julius Peppers, CAR (ADP: DE6)

John Norton - There is no doubt that Peppers is a very talented player with a great deal of potential. But his ADP as the #6 defensive lineman has to be based more on hype and name recognition than reality. Peppers has reached 40 tackles just twice in his 6 pro seasons, has finished among the top 15 on twice and is coming off the worst season of his career when his mere 3 sacks was not even the best on his own team. Two years ago he had a great season with 49 solo stops and a career best 13 sacks, but even then he was a risky start on any given week. Ten of those 13 sacks came in 4 big games and he failed to record a sack in 8 of the final 10 games. There are a lot of guys who are much more dependable and consistent.

Aaron Rudnicki - Peppers is an exceptional athlete and elite pass rusher but his production has generally been disappointing for much of his career. During his 6 years in the league, he's been a top-5 DE twice, but he's also finished outside of the top-15 in the four other seasons despite missing just 7 games over the same time period. Given that he's coming off the worst season of his career, in which he recorded just 31 solo tackles and 3 sacks, it's hard to understand why fantasy owners are drafting him so highly. Peppers is being moved to RDE this year, which could lead to an increase in sacks as he lines up on the QBs blind side during most weeks, and he's in a contract year so he should be highly motivated to put up some big numbers. However, an improved offense and increased focus on power running should lead to fewer snaps for the defense this year. His inconsistency is enough reason for me to pass on him and go with one of the many other safer options that are available instead.

DE Chris Long, STL (ADP: DE13)

Aaron Rudnicki - Long is a player with a great motor who will likely develop into an elite DE eventually. But, he wasn't really a dominant player in college and it is rare for a rookie at this position to produce like a starter right away. The Rams have good depth at the DE position now with Leonard Little, James Hall, and Victor Adeyanju so using them all in a rotation could wind up limiting Long's snaps enough to keep him outside the top-30. If taking him in a dynasty draft, he might warrant a selection this high if you think he has the upside to be a top-5 DE in a year or two. But, given how deep the defensive end position appears to be these days, I'd pass on Long unless he slid down into the DE20 or later range.

Anthony Borbely - Long is a real talent, but he is also a rookie. Rookie defensive ends have a steep learning curve and while it is possible that Long could be a fantasy starter, I would let someone else take that risk. There are safer and better options.

DE Dwight Freeney, IND (ADP: DE22)

Bob Magaw - Freeney is a classic example of a player that is far more valuable to his NFL team than to IDP owners (which is why he was recently made the highest paid defensive player in NFL history, yet is probably overvalued at DE22). Plays made by teammates enabled by his withering pressure don't count in his box scores. Freeney has always been a wildly erratic and inconsistent scorer due to his anemic run support numbers. As one of the fastest DEs ever and one for whom speed figured prominently in his game, a Lis Franc foot injury is alarming. Even more disturbing, his sack numbers had begun to drop BEFORE the injury.

Sigmund Bloom - There's no guarantee that Freeney will be back at full speed to begin the season after a severe foot injury cut short his 2007. If he was completely healthy, DE22 would be a small bargain for Freeney (assuming you were willing to ride the rollercoaster of a high sack, low tackle DE), but this year it's best to take Robert Mathis when you feel the urge to take Freeney.

DE Jared Allen, KC (ADP: DE1)

Jeff Pasquino - Okay, work with me here. I understand that he is the top defensive end and outperformed and outpaced every other DE last season - but keep in mind that some of that was him working on the offensive side of the ball (catching two touchdowns as a goal line TE). Allen played on a much weaker team in Kansas City and was on the field quite a bit. I still believe that he will be a Top 5 DE, but he won't be as dominant as some may expect.

DE Patrick Kerney, SEA (ADP: DE7)

Sigmund Bloom - Kerney notched nine sacks in a sick four week stretch that saw him chase around the likes of Kurt Warner, Rex Grossman, and Gus Frerotte. He's an adequate DE1, but not a stud to reach for in the top 10 DEs. Kerney's production last year was more due to the relentless overall pass rush of the Seahawks than individual talent on his part.

DE Will Smith, NO (ADP: DE11)

Jene Bramel -Will Smith may be entering the prime of his career at age 27, but he's yet to finish as a DL1 in his first four seasons as a pro. He's had one season with double digit sacks and two seasons with less than 35 solo tackles. Sedrick Ellis will improve the New Orleans defensive line, but with an ever-deepening tier of potential DL1 targets, Smith doesn't have enough upside to warrant drafting among the top 12 defensive linemen.

DE Philip Merling, MIA (ADP: DE37)

Jene Bramel - Why single out Merling as an overvalued target when he's already outside the top 35 at his position by ADP? Because some owners will see that ADP and think he's undervalued. There have been some very good players that have lined up as a 2-gap 3-4 defensive end. Even the most productive have struggled to have value in the box scores. The two best in recent seasons, Aaron Smith and Ty Warren have had the benefit of a zone blitz scheme or a number of 4-3 snaps to boost their value. The undersized Merling will have no such advantage. He may not top 35 solos or five sacks this season. Let someone else fuss over him as a DL3.

Linebackers

LB DeMarcus Ware, DAL (ADP: LB7)

John Norton - Unless you are in a league that emphasizes big plays, DeMarcus Ware's ADP of 7th among linebackers is ridiculously high. His overall numbers for the past two seasons have been very similar but even his career best 60-24-14 landed him outside the top 15 in leagues with balanced scoring. It will be very difficult for him to improve on those numbers.

Aaron Rudnicki - This ADP ranking could be driven by the league type as Ware will have added value in sack-heavy scoring systems, but it's still hard to imagine him putting up the type of numbers that would justify this ranking. Ware is a great player but his fantasy upside will likely be limited as long as he plays primarily as a 3-4 OLB. Given his role and responsibilities in the Cowboys defense, he's unlikely to reach 70 solo tackles and he will have a hard time improving on the 14 sacks he put up a year ago. In balanced scoring systems, he's probably no better than a strong LB3 given that he'll produce very little in most weeks when he doesn't record a sack.

Sigmund Bloom - Unless you're playing in a 6 pts per sack league, Ware is nowhere near worth a pick as LB7 or IDP9. He is a liability anytime he doesn't notch a sack because of his low tackle numbers, which is not a recipe for an LB1 or LB2 you rely on week to week. Ware posted career highs in sacks and tackles last year, and he still didn't crack the top 20 LBs overall.

LB D.J. Williams, DEN (ADP: LB14)

Sigmund Bloom - We've already seen what DJ Williams can do as a weak side linebacker. He topped out as a solid LB3 (LB27 overall) as a rookie, and barely registered on the fantasy radar in his other two years playing the will. He's more experienced, and he'll be a three down LB, but it's foolish to expect Williams to finish as a top LB2. Two decent MLBs on the roster (Nate Webster and Niko Koutovides) means Williams isn't even assured of going back to the middle if the starter goes down.

Jeff Pasquino - Denver has moved Williams out of the middle to make room for a much better talent in, um, Niko Koutouvides? Seriously? Williams could not hold on to middle linebacker against a guy most have never heard of and still more cannot even spell correctly? Williams will be a huge bust and fall out of the Top 36 LBs this year. Drafting him in the Top 25 linebackers leaves nowhere to go but down.

LB Curtis Lofton, ATL (ADP: LB26)

Jene Bramel - Lofton may become a LB2 in the near future. But with Michael Boley proving himself an all-around stud and Keith Brooking presumably an every-down player, Lofton may not be on the field enough to get the 85 solos necessary to land among the top 25 linebackers this year. IDP owners are letting Lofton's talent and belief that the Falcon defense will be on the field frequently cloud their judgment. Without every down responsibility, Lofton may prove only to be an inconsistent LB3 option this year.

Aaron Rudnicki - I have Lofton ranked as my #1 dynasty LB from this year's rookie class but I'm less optimistic about his value in a redraft league. Even though Brooking has been moved back outside to WLB to free up a spot at MLB for Lofton, it looks like Lofton will have a hard time earning playing time in the nickel package this year. Brooking isn't a physical run stopper but he's an experienced veteran who will wear the defensive headset and make all the playcalls. Likely taking the other spot in the nickel is Michael Boley, who enjoyed a breakout season last year and looks like one of the best strongside linebackers in the league. Lofton might still put up some good numbers as a 2-down player similar to what Napoleon Harris did last year in Kansas City when he finished with 82 solo tackles. Harris still only finished as LB38 in FBG scoring, however, so I think there are safer choices with more upside available where Lofton is being drafted.

LB Shawne Merriman, SD (ADP: LB11)

John Norton - Shawne Merriman's situation is very similar to that of DeMarcus Ware. In some scoring systems the big play production will greatly increase his value, but for most of us he is not the #11 linebacker that his ADP suggests. As with Ware, Merriman has gotten the most out of his situation over the past couple of years and just doesn't have much room for improvement.

LB Thomas Howard, OAK (ADP: LB24)

Jene Bramel - Howard is a nice player and saved his fantasy value last year by adding six interceptions and a couple of touchdowns to offset a ten solo tackle drop from 2006 to 2007. With a healthy (and presumably productive) Derrick Burgess and Tommy Kelly, a solid MLB (Kirk Morrison) and in-the-box SS in free agent signee Gibril Wilson, Howard is going to struggle to reach 80 solos as his pursuit tackle opportunities continue to dry up. Drafting a player that may be dependent on big plays as your LB2 is too risky with the current crop of LB2-3 potentials.

LB James Harrison, PIT (ADP: LB28)

Anthony Borbely - Harrison had a huge year in 2007 and came out of nowhere to become a fantasy factor. But 3-4 OLBs are very inconsistent from year to year and no 3-4 OLB has been a top 20 fantasy LB more than one time in the last five years. Harrison could have another big year, but the odds and past history suggest that it is not likely.

Defensive Backs

S Edward Reed, BAL (ADP: S14)

Aaron Rudnicki - Reed is an exceptional NFL player but his strength lies in coverage so the Ravens use him to control the deep secondary rather than bringing him up to support the run. This winds up leading to very low tackle numbers for a player with his range and ability. He did average 60+ solo tackles earlier in his career and finished as high as the #2 ranked safety in 2004, but he needed an amazing 9 interceptions to do so. He does have 12 interceptions over the past two seasons, but he averaged a miserable 1.8 solo tackles/game in 2007. Unless you're in a league that awards a ton of points for interceptions, Reed will have a very difficult time living up to this ADP and is most likely being drafted too high simply because of name recognition.

Bob Magaw - Like Dwight Freeney at DE, Reed is much more valuable to his NFL team than he is to fantasy owners. If he doesn't have a stellar season in big plays, which are hard to predict from year-to-year (let alone game-to-game), Reed doesn't offer the routine tackling production to make him an attractive starting option. Whatever remaining IDP cache he has probably derives more from his reputation based on what he did earlier in his career than more recently.

Sigmund Bloom - Reed makes more than his share of highlight plays on interceptions (and subsequent returns), but his tackle numbers are downright anemic. He did not have one game with more than three solos last year. If that's not enough to scare you off of Reed as even a DB3 or DB4, consider this - Reed himself has confirmed that he's not a lock to play in the first week of the season.

CB Antonio Cromartie, SD (ADP: CB1)

John Norton - Just the fact that Cromartie has an ADP of #1 among corners shows that too many owners don't do their homework or look past last year's numbers. Yes he had a great '07 season and finished strong but players almost never repeat such gaudy interception totals and he only posted 39 tackles. You can make the argument that he wasn't playing full time until mid season but he totaled 1 or fewer tackles 4 times over the final 9 games including the playoffs. If you are expecting more than 50-55 tackles and 5-6 interceptions, you will likely be very disappointed.

Jene Bramel - Cromartie is a stud. And he may certainly prove himself a perennial six plus INT type player. But CB1 is silliness. If teams choose to avoid Cromartie's side of the field, he's a 50 solo, 4 INT disaster waiting to happen.

S Bob Sanders, IND (ADP: S1)

John Norton - Sanders has an ADP of #1 among defensive backs. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan and love to watch him play with that kamikaze style, but there are simply too many safer/better options out there to take him as the top DB in any scoring system. He's never played a full season and the two times he came close (14 games in '05 and 15 last season) he never posted more than 72 tackles. He's a top 10 DB but you can't take him ahead of guys like Adrian Wilson, Gibril Wilson, Sean Jones and about 4-5 other guys

S Troy Polamalu, PIT (ADP: S5)

Aaron Rudnicki - Polamalu is a fun player to watch and clearly an integral part of the Steelers defense, but that doesn't necessarily translate into fantasy success. He was a top-10 safety in 2004 and 2005 but he's missed 3 and 5 games the past two seasons and his per game averages appear to be on the decline. At just 27 years old, he should be entering the prime of his career and he could live up to these expectations if everything went perfect for him, but it seems much more likely that he'll continue to disappoint.

S O.J. Atogwe, STL (ADP: S8)

Jene Bramel - Atogwe has been a fine IDP option over the past two seasons. But it's been his big play value that's propped him up in the year-end rankings. Atogwe rode five forced fumbles to a solid finish in 2006 and eight interceptions to his high ranking last season. If those plays dry up, you're left with a mid-60s solo tackle player as your DB1. Buyer beware.

CB Adam Jones, DAL (ADP: CB12)

Sigmund Bloom - If the first preseason game is any indication, it's going to be a long road back for Adam "Don't call me Pacman" Jones. He was torched multiple times and looked rustier than the dude's car in the Big Lebowski. The Cowboys have two starting quality corners in Anthony Henry and Terence Newman, and first round draft pick Mike Jenkins, plus he hasn't even been fully reinstated by the NFL yet. I have no idea why anyone would select Jones at the last pick, so CB12 seems absurd.

S Roy Williams, DAL (ADP: S21)

Anthony Borbely - Williams is no longer a lock to be a 3-down safety and there is a slim chance he could be released. Either way, his coverage skills, which were never good to begin with, have deteriorated. He is being drafted because of his name and past potential, not his projected performance. I would simply stay away.

S Chris Hope, TEN (ADP: S22)

Jeff Pasquino - Hope came out of nowhere to put up big numbers two years ago in Tennessee, but now with a human logjam named Albert Haynesworth clogging the middle, Hope will see far fewer tackle opportunities. Selecting Hope as a Top 30 DB leaves very little chance of upside and a lot of room for a disappointment.