Week 9 IDP Upgrades and Downgrades
by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.comUpgrades
DT Shaun Rogers, CLE (9 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Rogers was a Pro Bowl DT with the Lions who had to learn a new system and a new position when he was traded to the Browns earlier this year. Despite the transition to playing NT in a 3-4 front, he is living up to the huge contract extension the Browns gave him. He has 13 solo tackles and 2 sacks in his last two games and has been one of the 2 or 3 best fantasy DTs all year long.DE Tamba Hali, KC (5 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Hali is now in his 3rd year as a pro and it's been much tougher for him this year without Jared Allen around and the Chiefs offense struggling. In each of the past two seasons, he recorded his first sack of the season in the team's 3rd game. But, this year, he didn't record his first sack until this week, which was the 7th game of the year for the Chiefs. He also reached 5 solo tackles for the first time this year, so hopefully this is a sign that he's ready to turn his disappointing season around. While not an elite talent, he is better than he's shown for most of this year.
DE Charles Johnson, CAR (2 solos, 0 assists, 2 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Johnson is a 2nd year player who does not start for the Panthers, but he still managed to come up with 2 sacks. Despite playing much fewer snaps, Johnson now had 3.5 sacks on the season and only trails team leader Julius Peppers by a half sack. It's probably only a matter of time before he takes over the starting job from Tyler Brayton and with Peppers headed for free agency, he may even become the primary pass rush threat for the Panthers next season.
DE Richard Seymour, NE (7 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - It wasn't too long ago when Seymour was widely regarded as one of the best defensive linemen in the league, but he's rarely been a reliable fantasy contributor during his career. He only has 1 season with 6 or more sacks (2003) and his career high for solo tackles is just 36 (2005). With 9 solos and 2.5 sacks in his last two games, Seymour is now on pace to set career highs in both categories.
ILB Zach Diles, HOU (7 solos, 5 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - In an amazing turn of events, Diles is actually the leading tackler for the Texans right now with 42 solos and 15 assists compared to just 37 solos and 10 assists for MLB DeMeco Ryans. Ryans has averaged 112 solo tackles per year over his first two years and was a consensus top-3 LB going into the season, but now he's being outproduced by an unheralded 7th round draft pick in Diles. This type of production is certainly on the high end, but he's doing it with consistent production each and every week.
ILB Tim Dobbins, SD (7 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Dobbins took over a starting spot from Matt Wilhelm several weeks ago but the impact didn't show up in the box score until this week against the Saints. Dobbins flashed his potential this week with a 9 tackle performance that also included a forced fumble and pass defensed. The Chargers have a bye next week but Dobbins might be a nice depth player to add for the stretch run in deeper leagues.
ILB Napoleon Harris, MIN - Although Harris was benched and eventually released by the Chiefs this year, it looks like he wound up in a much better situation when the Vikings picked him up. With EJ Henderson on IR and his backup Dave Herron out with a hip injury, Harris is expected to take over the starting MLB job.
ILB DQwell Jackson, CLE (8 solos, 1 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Jackson has been very active recently and now ranks among the top-5 in the league in terms of total tackles. He has been credited with 20 solo tackles and 10 assists over his last 3 games and he also recorded his first sack of the year this week in a big win over the Jaguars. He is playing like a very solid LB2 in most standard scoring systems.
ILB Paris Lenon, DET (8 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Lenon has had an up and down season as the Lions MLB this year. His tackle numbers are well off last year's pace when he finished with 88, but he remains the starting MLB for a defense that figures to see a lot of rush attempts against. Perhaps his 8 solo tackles this week are a sign of things turning around for him. If you need help at LB and he happens to be available on the waiver wire, he should be able to help out with matchups coming up against the Bears, Jaguars, and Panthers.
ILB Jonathan Vilma, NO (9 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - The comeback year continues for Vilma. Excluding the disappointing week 3 game against the Broncos, he has now recorded 6 or more solo tackles in every game. With 53 solo tackles through 8 games, he is on pace to break 100 solo tackles for the 2nd time in his career and he leads the entire league with 72 combined tackles. It looks like playing in a 4-3 is exactly what he needed to return to elite status among fantasy LBs.
OLB Karlos Dansby, ARI (6 solos, 3 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Dansby is one of the most athletic and versatile linebackers in the league and although his big play numbers aren't quite as good as they've been in the past, he's making up for it with improved tackle numbers. With 38 solo tackles through 7 games, he's averaging over 5 per game and he has also recorded 2.5 sacks in his last 5 games. The Cardinals appear to have 3 favorable division matchups coming up against the Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks, which could help push Dansby up into a LB1 type of player.
OLB Joey Porter, MIA (4 solos, 0 assists, 2 sacks 1 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - At 31 years old, Porter is having perhaps the best season of his career and he shows little signs of slowing down any time soon. With 2 more sacks this week, Porter now leads the league with 10.5 sacks. He has already tied his career high for sacks in a season and he still has 9 more games to play. His tackle numbers are still underwhelming, but Porter is a big play machine right now who you probably have to ride until he cools off.
CB Brandon Flowers, KC (5 solos, 3 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 2 INT, 2 PD) - After putting up some disappointing numbers for much of the season, Flowers exploded this week with a huge game that included the first two interceptions of his career, one of which he returned for a TD. Hopefully, he can improve his week to week consistency and put up 4 or 5 solo tackles nearly every week, so big plays like take him from being a 1-week wonder to an elite everyweek starter.
CB Dunta Robinson, HOU (7 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 2 PD) - Although it was only his second game back in his return from a devastating knee injury, Robinson showed his potential with a huge game against the Bengals this week. While it was just the Bengals, it's a good sign of his health and stamina that he was able to play enough snaps to come up with 9 tackles and an interception. He should be one of the most popular pickups on the waiver wire this week.
S Oshiomogho Atogwe, STL (6 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - Atogwe is a top-5 DB this year thanks primarily to his playmaking skills. He is currently tied for the league lead in interceptions with 4, all of which have come in his last 4 games. Going back to last season, he has hauled in 11 interceptions in his last 15 games, which is almost certainly going to make him a lot of money if he hits unrestricted free agency after this season.
S Kerry Rhodes, NYJ (8 solos, 1 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - While Rhodes hasn't been making the same big plays that have become his trademark, his strong game this week gives him two in a row and may be a sign of better things to come. Also helping him is the injury to David Harris, as Rhodes clearly saw a decline in his tackle numbers once Harris entered the starting lineup last year. Look for Rhodes to be very active in next week's game against the Bills.
S Bryan Scott, BUF (7 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - The Bills moved Donte Whitner back to free safety last week and inserted Bryan Scott into the lineup at strong safety. He is a little bigger and they liked having him match up with Antonio Gates. The Bills used the same strategy again this week, and even though it wasn't quite as successful, Scott finished the game with 7 solo tackles and a sack and appears to be headed for a bigger role down the stretch. Scott is a veteran who had some success earlier in his career with the Falcons.
Downgrades
DT Fred Robbins, NYG (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Robbins blew up to start out the season with 11 solos and 4 sacks in his first 3 games and started to look like one of the year's bigger breakout candidates. In the 4 games since then, however, he's only managed 6 solos and 1 sack and is no longer looking like a must start at the DT spot.DE John Abraham, ATL (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Abraham got off to a great start this season with 3 sacks in the opener and 6 sacks in his first 3 games, but he's cooled off since then and has just 1 sack in his last 4 games. He's also not contributing much in the tackle categories with just 3 solos total over his last two games. The Falcons face Oakland next week, but have some touch matchups afterwards and in the fantasy playoffs which might make it tough for him to get back on track.
DE Andre Carter, WAS (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Carter's miserable year continues as he was held without a tackle this week and the only way he showed up on the stat sheet was for a QB hit. The Redskins had high hopes for a DE tandem of Carter and Jason Taylor, but the two have combined for just 3 sacks all season.
DE Charles Grant, NO (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Grant was credited with 25 solo tackles in the first 7 games this year, which was consistent with his reputation as a top notch run stopper. He did manage to ring up 3 sacks in the first 4 games, but he's gone sackless in his last four while pass rush specialist Bobby McCray has started to emerge. There was also a recent report that both Grant and Will Smith are facing a 4-game league suspension for violating the league's steroid policy after testing positive for a masking agent. They are appealing the decision and the hearing is scheduled for mid November.
DE Leonard Little, STL (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Little had been playing about as well as anyone recently, but he aggravated a hamstring injury this week and was forced to leave the game. He was scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday to determine the severity of the injury but early reports sounded optimistic that the injury was not too severe.
DE Justin Smith, SF (2 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Although Smith hasn't put up any clunkers this year, he's just not making many plays lately. He did come up with 2.5 sacks in his first 5 games, but he's come up empty in the 3 games since then. The 49ers signed him to a big contract and expected a boost to their pass rush, but it looks like he could have trouble getting to 5 or 6 sacks for the season.
ILB David Harris, NYJ (0 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Harris has been a disappointment this year for owners who were expecting a top-5 season from him, but he still had a chance to turn things around with a strong finish. Unfortunately, however, Harris suffered an injury this week that is likely to keep him out of next week's game against the Bills. Initial reports indicated that it was a hamstring injury, then Eric Mangini said it was a hip injury, and the latest report said it was a groin injury. Regardless, keep Harris on your bench and look for help elsewhere next week. David Bowens is expected to replace him in the starting lineup.
ILB Dhani Jones, CIN (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Jones has been one of the bigger surprises this year, first in winning the starting MLB job for the Bengals and then ranking among the leading tacklers in the league this late in the season. Jones missed some practice time last week with a foot injury, however, and it may have hindered him in the game as he finished with his worst output of the year. With just 4 solo tackles in his last two games and the Bengals sitting at 0-8, the great production Jones has been providing may be coming to an end.
ILB DeMeco Ryans, HOU (1 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - No player in the league has more tackles than Ryans since he entered the league in 2007, but he's struggling badly right now. He recorded 18 solo tackles in his first two games this year, but he's been credited with just 19 solos in the 5 games since then. This is uncharted territory for a player who has averaged over 7 solos/game for the first two years of his career. He'll need to get things turned around against a couple of run-oriented offenses (Vikings and Ravens) the next two weeks.
ILB Lofa Tatupu, SEA (0 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Tatupu had his best game of the season in week 6 when he was credited with 10 solo tackles, but he's been very unlucky since then. Last week, he was forced to leave the game with a minor concussion. He returned to action this week but was again forced to leave with a groin injury. He's expected to play next week against the Eagles but it's probably a good idea to sit him if you have better options available.
OLB Demorrio Williams, KC (1 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Williams saw a bump in his production and fantasy value with the injury to Donnie Edwards, but now that Edwards is back it looks like they will split time. Williams started the game this week but only finished with 1 assisted tackle while Edwards was credited with 4 solo stops.
S Brandon Harrison, HOU (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Harrison took over the starting SS job a few weeks ago and put up 10 tackles in his first game. In the two games since then, however, he's only been credited with 1 solo and 1 assist combined. Although he looked like a player with nice potential, he's just not making any plays, which is strange considering that DeMeco Ryan's tackle numbers are low as well.
S Chris Horton, WAS - Horton was listed as probable this week on the injury report while recovering from an ankle injury, but he had some problems during the pre-game warmup and was placed on the inactive list at the last minute. He's expected to be back in the lineup next week, but there were lots of fantasy owners who got stuck with an unexpected zero from him this week.
S Jermaine Phillips, TB (2 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Phillips has been one of the most productive safeties in the league over the past two seasons but his numbers this year have been generally underwhelming. Making matters worse, he suffered an injury this week that could keep him out for an extended period of time. He was seen with his arm in a sling and early reports suggest that it may be broken. This could open up an opportunity for last year's 2nd round pick Sabby Piscitelli to take over.
S Marvin White, CIN (2 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - With 24 solo tackles in his first 4 games, White started off the year looking like a breakout candidate. Since then, however, he's been credited with just 10 solo tackles and he was replaced in the starting lineup by veteran Dexter Jackson. With the Bengals sitting at 0-8 and the season effectively over, it would probably make more sense for them to give more playing time to the younger player, but that isn't what's happening. Keep an eye on White though as he's already proven that he can be productive if he gets the playing time.
S Donte Whitner, BUF (2 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Whitner is a leader on the Bills defense but the team has been trying to find ways to help him make more big plays. They inserted Bryan Scott into the lineup at SS to cover Antonio Gates last week and slid Whitner back to FS, an alignment they used again this week. The hope is that the change will allow Whitner to do a better job of reading plays and directing the other players. Moving him away from the line of scrimmage may lead to some big plays, but it will also likely limit his already-low tackle opportunities considerably.















