Week 8 IDP Upgrades and Downgrades
by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.comUpgrades
DE Jared Allen, MIN (6 solos, 0 assists, 2 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Allen started off the season as one of the most disappointing IDPs in the league. He averaged 60 solo tackles and led the league in sacks over the past two years, but through his first 5 games he had recorded just 9 solo tackles and 2 sacks. Those numbers were barely good enough to make him a reliable starter each week much less the elite star he was supposed to be. He appears to be turning things around over the past two weeks, however, as he's now compiled 9 solo tackles, 3 sacks, and a forced fumble. The Vikings have a bye this week but he should have another strong game when he returns to face the Texans at home in week 9.DE Leonard Little, STL (3 solos, 1 assists, 1.5 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Since missing a couple games earlier this year, Little has been terrorizing opposing QBs and played a huge role in turning around the Rams season. Over the past 3 games, Little has 9 solo tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. Going up against the immobile Brad Johnson this week, Little was in the backfield all day with 1.5 sacks, 2 tackles for a loss, and 3 QB hits. Last year's disappointing 1-sack season looks like a distant memory at this point.
DE Julius Peppers, CAR (3 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Peppers has been a tough player to figure out as he seemed to go from being one of the best defensive ends in the league to a player who was barely above average overnight. He recorded 49 solo tackles and 13 sacks in 2006 but then fell way off to just 31 solo tackles and 3 sacks in 2007. He had a slow start to the 2008 season but seems to be getting his game back on track now. His tackle numbers are still a little underwhelming but he's now recorded a sack in 4 of his past 5 games while also forcing two fumbles. The Panthers upcoming schedule looks pretty favorable, which could help Peppers finish among the top-10 at his position and put him in line for a big contract when he hits free agency next year.
DE Trevor Scott, OAK (3 solos, 3 assists, 2 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Scott was a 6th round pick of the Raiders this year out of Buffalo who saw his first extensive action this week as part of a 3-man DE rotation and he responded with an impressive 5 tackle (2 solos), 2 sack performance that also included a forced fumble, 2 tackles for a loss, and a QB hit. Derrick Burgess hasn't practiced for a couple weeks while trying to recover from a triceps strain, which should provide some additional playing time for Scott in the weeks ahead.
DE Terrell Suggs, BAL (7 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - Suggs came into the season as a pretty safe bet to finish among the top-10 at his position, but after 6 games and a huge performance this week (which included his first career TD on an interception return), he has probably moved himself into the top spot among fantasy DEs. He's only had one weak start this year, in week 5 when he recorded just 2 solos, 1 assist, and no sacks. Otherwise, he's been a very reliable option every week and is currently on pace to finish with 65+ solo tackles and double digit sacks.
DE Darryl Tapp, SEA (5 solos, 4 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - The Seahawks have benched rookie Lawrence Jackson and given Tapp his starting RDE job back. Although he hasn't put up any sacks yet this year, he's been holding up much better against the run than Lawrence Jackson was. Over his last 3 games, Tapp has been credited with 12 solo tackles and 4 assists, which ranks 3rd among all defensive ends during that time period. With a matchup against the 49ers coming in week 8, Tapp should be a safe bet to get his first sack of the season.
DE Dewayne White, DET (7 solos, 3 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - With his second strong game in a row, White has likely moved into the top-10 in terms of average fantasy points per game in most IDP leagues. This is a big turnaround for a player who was probably available on the waiver wire not too long ago and who came into the season with pretty low expectations. White has now recorded a sack in 4 out of 6 games and his 15 solo tackles and 5 assists over the past three games are the most in the league from the DE position.
ILB Chase Blackburn, NYG (8 solos, 2 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Blackburn got a rare start as regular MLB Antonio Pierce sat out with a quad injury. It was the first game Pierce has missed since the 2005 season. Blackburn originally signed with the Giants as an undrafted rookie free agent and he's mainly contributed on special teams over the years, but he showed that he can produce when given an opportunity this week. Blackburn stuffed Frank Gore for a loss on the first snap and finished with a team-leading 10 tackles (8 solos), plus a sack and forced fumble. The coaches have to feel confident in what he can do now, so if Pierce misses any more time, it looks like you could probably plug Blackburn into your lineup and be alright.
ILB Lawrence Timmons, PIT (7 solos, 3 assists, 2 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Even thought Timmons hasn't exploded onto the scene like his fellow 2nd year player LaMarr Woodley has, Timmons was actually the higher pick and he might even have more long-term upside in standard scoring leagues. Timmons was expected to take over for the veteran Larry Foote at one of the ILB spots this year and after this week, it might be tough to keep him out of the lineup for much longer. Timmons didn't start the game but he was very disruptive, finishing with 9 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 tackles for a loss, and 3 QB hits. He is an incredible athlete with good size and the range to make plays all over the field. There will probably be more games like this in his future.
OLB D.D. Lewis, SEA (8 solos, 3 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Lewis filled in for an injured Lofa Tatupu, who left the game with a concussion that he got while making a tackle on WR Ike Hilliard. Even though he didn't play the entire game and wasn't 100% healthy himself, Lewis led the team in tackles with 8 solos and 11 overall. Tatupu is expected to play in the next game, but concussions are always cause for concern, especially for a middle linebacker who is involved in a lot of collisions each week.
OLB Kawika Mitchell, BUF (4 solos, 3 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 2 PD) - When the Bills placed Angelo Crowell on IR before the season opener, that meant a lot of additional playing time and responsibilities for Kawika Mitchell who took Crowell's place in the nickel package. For whatever reason, Mitchell's production in the first month of the season didn't seem to reflect the fact that he was a 3-down LB in a pretty favorable situation. Over the past 2 weeks, however, he has started to look more and more comfortable and is now starting to make a big impact. He has 10 solos, 4 assists, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 1 forced fumble in the past two weeks. He should be able to average 5 solos per game the rest of the season while contributing some more big plays, making him a solid LB4 in deeper leagues.
OLB Lamarr Woodley, PIT (2 solos, 2 assists, 2 sacks 1 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Woodley continues to be one of the year's biggest surprises. He's played 6 games now and his average fantasy points/game ranks 2nd behind Patrick Willis among all linebackers this year in standard leagues and he's probably even ranked ahead of Willis in big play leagues. With 4 sacks in his last 2 games, Woodley now has an amazing 7.5 sacks on the season to go along with 21 solo tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, and an interception. It's hard to imagine him keeping it up, but he's on pace to reach 20 sacks this year.
CB Cedric Griffin, MIN (9 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Griffin enjoyed a breakout season of sorts last year with 82 solo tackles, even though he didn't record a single interception. He's a physical CB who can put up better tackle numbers than most linebackers, which is what seems to be happening now that EJ Henderson is out of the lineup. In his past 4 games, Griffin has been credited with 32 solo tackles, which would rank him #1 in the league at his position and top-5 overall.
CB DeAngelo Hall, OAK (7 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 4 PD) - Playing opposite a lockdown corner like Nnamdi Asomugha, Hall has been seeing plenty of action this year and it's allowing him to put up some very nice fantasy numbers. He's averaging 5.5 solo tackles/game and has also added 3 interceptions and 8 passes defensed in his last 4 games. He has a couple of rookie QBs coming up on the schedule in Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan, which could help him improve those INT numbers even more.
CB Dunta Robinson, HOU (2 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Robinson is one of the league's better young corners, but he is recovering from a very severe knee injury that he suffered last year. He saw his first game action this week and finished with 2 solo tackles on limited snaps as the team tries to bring him back slowly. He certainly has the potential to make a big impact if he is healthy so it's probably not a bad idea to grab him if he's available and you need some help at CB in deeper leagues. In shallower leagues, it might be safer to wait a week or two more to see how rusty he is first.
S Sean Jones, CLE (10 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - After missing 4 games with a knee injury, Jones returned to the starting lineup this week and made an immediate impact. He finished the game with 10 solo tackles, and also added a tackle for a loss and forced fumble. Jones was a top-5 safety entering the season and he still has a good chance to finish there in terms of average fantasy points per game played. He's an elite fantasy safety who should provide a big boost to any lineups that were missing him during his absence.
S Kevin Payne, CHI (8 solos, 1 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - Nobody really knew what to expect from Payne entering the season and most observers expected Brandon McGowan to be lining up at SS for the Bears. But, Payne seems to be rewarding the coaches for their confidence in him and proving to be a nice find for IDP owners who snapped him up early on. He's averaging 5 solo tackles per game, has made a surprising contribution with 3 interceptions, and added his first career sack this week, proving that he can make an impact in nearly any statistical category. He looks like a promising young player who is in an ideal situation.
S Eric Weddle, SD (7 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Weddle has always had a knack for just being around the football and that seems to be the case again this year. Even though the big plays haven't quite been there for him, although he does have 1 INT, he has quietly been putting up some very impressive tackle numbers. He has 48 solo tackles in 7 games, which ranks him 2nd to only Patrick Willis. He's on pace to break 100 solo tackles this year, which would be a remarkable accomplishment for a free safety. He did suffer an ankle injury this week that might be worth keeping an eye on.
Downgrades
DE Lawrence Jackson, SEA (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Jackson played well enough during preseason to take over the starting RDE job in Seattle, but his level of play had slipped in recent weeks. He was unable to hold up against the run and was generating very little pressure on opposing QBs. As a result, the team has decided to turn the starting spot back over to Darryl Tapp. It's not unusual for a rookie to struggle, so Jackson still has a good chance to rebound from this and win back the job at some point, but it looks like he may have to wait until next season.DE Aaron Schobel, BUF - With just 1 sack on the season, which came in the opener, Schobel is off to yet another slow start this year. Also hurting his chances to rebound is the fact that he missed his first game in more than 7 seasons this week with a foot injury. Schobel had played in 117 straight games, which tied him with Justin Smith for the longest active streak among defensive ends.
DE Will Smith, NO (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Smith was a borderline candidate to finish among the top-10 fantasy DEs this year, but after 7 games he's well off the pace he would need to be on in order to get there. He's only recorded a sack in 2 of 7 games thus far (with the last one coming in week 4), and he's only averaging about 2 solo tackles and 1 assist per game. With Charles Grant playing like it's 2004 all over again and Bobby McCray starting to emerge as well, it looks like this is going to be a disappointing season for Smith and his owners unless he can find a way to turn things around in the second half.
DE Jason Taylor, WAS (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 2 PD) - Taylor has been dealing with some injury issues this year, which kept him out of a couple games and have clearly limited his effectiveness in others. He came into the year as one of the best pass rushers in the league, but he's also an undersized 34 year old player who was moved to the power side of the formation after the trade from Miami. He now has just 7 solo tackles and 1 sack in the 5 games he's played this year. If he can't turn things around against the Lions next week, it's probably time to start looking for help elsewhere if you were counting on Taylor to be a reliable every week starter.
DE Greg White, TB (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - After coming over from the Arena League last year, White made a strong impression on the Bucs and finished the year with 8.5 sacks. He entered this year with a good chance to repeat those numbers while playing primarily as a pass rush specialist and recording 3.5 sacks in the first 3 games. He's gone cold since then, however, and has 0 sacks and just 4 solo tackles in his last 4 games. With Gaines Adams and Kevin Carter seeing most of the playing time at DE, it's possible that White simply isn't getting enough snaps to make the same impact he was earlier.
ILB Larry Foote, PIT (0 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Foote continues to start at ILB for the Steelers but he has been splitting time with Lawrence Timmons, who was very impressive this week and likely earned a bigger share of playing time with his performance. Foote is a reliable veteran who is still only 28 years old, but with just 2 solos and 2 assists in his last 2 games, it looks like his fantasy value is minimal unless his situation changes dramatically via an injury or a move to another team.
ILB David Harris, NYJ (3 solos, 4 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - On the strength of his amazing 9 starts in the 2007 season, Harris entered the year as a consensus top-5 fantasy LB. With 29 solo tackles in 6 games, he's well off the pace that many expected from him and he's also failed to show up in the big play columns with the same consistency that he did a year ago. The Jets have been better on both sides of the ball, which is likely leading to much fewer opportunities for Harris, but this dropoff is certainly looking like it's here to stay. In shallower leagues, it might not be a bad idea to look for better options. In deeper leagues, if you can't get fair value in trade, you might just need to hold onto him and use him as a LB3 instead of the team anchor everyone expected him to be.
ILB Matt Wilhelm, SD (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Even though Stephen Cooper missed the first 4 games while serving a suspension, Wilhelm didn't really take advantage of the opportunity and his production has been rather underwhelming. As a result, he has been replaced in the starting lineup by Tim Dobbins. Dobbins didn't do much against the Bills this week, but Wilhelm did even less as he was kept off the stat sheet completely.
OLB Derrick Brooks, TB (0 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Brooks still has his moments at times, like in week 4 when he came up with an interception and a forced fumble, but he's pretty much been a shell of his former self this year. At 35 years of age, he probably doesn't have a whole lot left in the tank and the fact that he's playing through a hamstring injury now certainly won't help. Given his limited mobility, the Bucs have been using Cato June at WLB more often lately, which could be a sign of things to come, although it hasn't resulted in a bump in tackles for June yet.
OLB Jarret Johnson, BAL (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Johnson had been playing pretty well with 19 solo tackles and 5 assists in his first 5 games. Johnson is a tweener who can play both OLB and DE in the Ravens defense, although he's not much of a pass rusher with a career high of just 2 sacks. After recording at least 3 tackles in every game so far this year, however, he was held without a tackle this week.
OLB Keith Rivers, CIN (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Rivers was knocked out for the season this week after suffering a broken jaw on a vicious block from Steelers WR Hines Ward. Rivers was a top-10 draft pick who still has nice potential in IDP dynasty leagues, but he'll need to improve his cover skills and hopefully earn a spot in the team's nickel package.
OLB Bryan Thomas, NYJ (1 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - With 4.5 sacks on the year, Thomas appears to be well on his way to a rebound season after finishing last year with just 2.5. His fantasy value is sinking fast, however, as he's been playing through a leg injury and has only been credited with 2 solos and 3 assists in the past two games. Without more consistent tackle production, it's hard to imagine him being anything more than a waiver wire pickup. If he can get healthy, a matchup against the Chiefs next week might be enough to turn things around.
OLB David Thornton, TEN (2 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Thornton had a big season for the Titans last year, finishing with 93 solo tackles and seemingly taking over the dominant LB spot on the Titans defense from Keith Bulluck. This year, however, he's been credited with just 19 solo tackles in 6 games which would put him on pace for just 50 solos in a 16-game season. If he hasn't made his way to the waiver wire in your league yet, he probably will soon.
CB Brandon Flowers, KC (2 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Flowers came into the year with some pretty high expectations, but it looks like he's going to have a hard time living up to them. The main reason, unfortunately, may be the fact that the Chiefs just aren't a very good team and so their opponents don't have to pass the ball much against them. The Chiefs were shutout by the Panthers in week 5 and were nearly shutout again this week by the Titans. Flowers remains an intriguing fantasy option in dynasty leagues, but he's probably not going to be consistent enough or make enough big plays to be relied on as an everyweek starter this year.
CB Antoine Winfield, MIN (1 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Winfield is one of the best tacking CBs in the league, so it's a little surprising to see him with just 3 solo tackles and 1 assist in the last 2 games. He has 27 solo tackles through 7 games, which puts him on pace for one of the worst seasons in his career. His fantasy value has been helped tremendously by a handful of big plays this year, but he'll need to pick his tackle numbers back up again in case those dry up at some point.
S Mike Adams, CLE - Adams missed the game this week with a hamstring injury, but the return to the lineup for Sean Jones is going to send him back to the bench when he's healthy anyway. Adams proved to be a pretty nice short-term fill in but it should be safe to drop him for help elsewhere now.
S Roman Harper, NO (3 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Harper enjoyed a breakout season last year as he finished with 75 solo tackles, 4 sacks, 3 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles. He was an aggressive playmaker who contributed in a variety of ways. This year, many expected more of the same from him but it looks like his numbers are on the decline. He started out great with 21 solo tackles in his first 3 games, but he has been credited with just 10 solos in the 3 games since then. He's also failed to come up with any big plays yet this year. Harper is still an everyweek starter, but he's no longer looking like the top-5 talent he could have been.
S Michael Lewis, SF (2 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Lewis has been one of the most productive tacklers from the safety position for most of his career as he normally plays like an extra linebacker and is very active in run support. Apart from his 11 solo effort against the Saints in week 4 though, he just hasn't as productive this year. Part of the reason is that he's been playing hurt lately and he left the game again this week with a knee sprain. Given how things have been going, it looks like Takeo Spikes may be taking a lot of the tackles that would normally go to Lewis. With his injury problems now, it's probably a good idea to sit him until week 10 after the bye or potentially try to find an upgrade if there's better talent available on the waiver wire.
S Troy Polamalu, PIT (2 solos, 3 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Polamalu had a great start to his season with 16 solos, 5 assists, and 3 interceptions in his first 4 games. Since then, however, he's been credited with just 6 solos and 2 assists with no interceptions. Making matters worse, he left the game with a concussion this week on an attempted tackle of Cedric Benson. Although he appeared to be alright after the game, he has a long history of concussions dating back to his college days so this is something the Steelers will probably want to be very careful with.

