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Week 7 IDP Upgrades and Downgrades

by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.com


Upgrades

DT Kevin Williams, MIN (8 solos, 0 assists, 4 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Williams has been playing great this year and it's starting to show up in the stat sheets for a change. In a huge game this week against Dan Orlovsky and the Lions, Williams was credited with an amazing 8 solo tackles and 4 sacks, plus 5 tackles for loss and 4 QB hits. After 6 games, Williams has already recorded 22 solo tackles, which puts him on a pace to pass his career-high of 52 that was set back in 2004. With 6 sacks on the year now, he also has a great chance to get back to double digits for the first time since 2004.

DE Jamaal Anderson, ATL (4 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 2 PD) - Anderson was a top-10 draft pick last year who quickly emerged as a starter for the Falcons, but it took him until this week to record his first career sack. In addition to his 4 solo tackles and 1 sack this week, he also used his 6'6" frame to knock down a couple of passes and was credited with a QB hit on another play. He's a solid run defender who could be a nice fantasy sleeper if he could start generating consistent pressure on opposing QBs.

DE Robert Mathis, IND (6 solos, 0 assists, 3 sacks 1 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Mathis wasn't in the starting lineup for the Colts against the Ravens this week, but the Colts got out to a quick lead and that gave him plenty of pass rush opportunities. With a huge 6 solo, 3 sack performance that also included 4 tackles for a loss and 2 QB hits, Mathis showed that he can still make an impact as a pass rush specialist as long as the Colts offense is playing the way we expect it to. The Ravens defense came into this game playing as well as any team in the league but the Colts shredded them without much difficulty. That should bode well for Mathis going forward.

DE Dewayne White, DET (6 solos, 1 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - White tends to be inconsistent from week to week, which makes him tough to rely on as a starter in deeper IDP leagues but he showed some positive signs of turning things around this week. He finished with a season-high 6 solo tackles and also recorded a sack for the 3rd time in 5 games against a pretty tough matchup. As long as the Lions can keep the games close -- as they did this week -- White could start living up to his significant potential.

ILB Stephen Cooper, SD (7 solos, 3 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Cooper has only been back in the lineup for 2 games after serving a 4-game suspension but he picked up right where he left off last season. He has recorded 7 solo tackles in each game and also added a sack this week. The Chargers have a couple of great matchups in the next two weeks, which could help solidify Cooper as a solid LB2 and potential LB1 in some leagues.

ILB Channing Crowder, MIA (9 solos, 4 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 2 PD) - After a couple of disappointing games, Crowder bounced back this week with a monster 13 tackle game, including 9 solos, against the Texans. He's now recorded at least 7 solo tackles in 3 out of 5 games, which shows his high tackle potential. He still isn't much of a big play threat, but he has a decent chance at 90+ solo tackles if he can keep this up and stay healthy.

ILB Lofa Tatupu, SEA (10 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Tatupu has been a disappointment for most of this season but he rewarded patient fantasy owners with an impressive 10-solo performance against the Packers this week. The big plays aren't happening for him yet, but the Seahawks problems on offense are likely to blame. If the Seahawks offense can turn things around, he has a chance to be a very productive player in the second half and might be a good buy-low candidate right now.

OLB Ben Leber, MIN (5 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Leber had limited value as a 2-down SLB but the season-ending injury to MLB EJ Henderson has opened up additional playing time for him. Leber will continue to line up on the strong side where he can contribute as a pass rusher, but he has also demonstrated solid cover skills and will now play in the team's nickel package. Those additional snaps could be enough to take him from being a free agent to a steady backup and occasional starter in most IDP leagues.

OLB Calvin Pace, NYJ (4 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Despite the high price tag ($42 million over 6 years), Pace is looking like one of this year's better free agent signings. Through 5 games, he has 3.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles along with 23 solo tackles. More importantly, his production has been consistent from week to week, which is pretty unusual for a 3-4 OLB.

OLB Julian Peterson, SEA (7 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Peterson is one of the best all-around LBs in the league. Despite the struggles the Seahawks have had on offense, he has now recorded a sack in 3 of his last 4 games. In addition to the 7 solo tackles he put up this week, he also added 2 QB hits.

OLB Pisa Tinoisamoa, STL (9 solos, 3 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Tinoisamoa is a talented and physical linebacker whose fantasy value has often been hurt by his inability to stay healthy. After his huge game this week in an upset of the Redskins, he now has 18 solo tackles in his last 2 games. The Rams are struggling as much as just about any team in the league, which should result in many rush attempts against for their defenders. He probably won't keep up this 9 solo/game pace, but he looks like a very promising waiver wire target for teams that need help at LB.

CB Jason Craft, STL (10 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Craft is a 32 year old player who has been in the league for a long time, playing primarily as a nickel corner. He has taken over as a starting CB in St Louis along with Ronald Bartell and looks like a player who could make a nice short-term fill in if you're looking for help at the position. With 15 solo tackles over the past two games, his tackle numbers are being helped by the fact that QBs aren't afraid to challenge him and he also moves inside to cover the slot in the nickel package which keeps him closer to the action so he can play like a 3rd safety.

CB Corey Graham, CHI (9 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - With starting CB Nathan Vasher out of the lineup with an ankle injury for the second week in a row, Graham got the start and was probably the best player on the field for the Bears this week. He led the Bears with 10 tackles (9 solos) and also forced the only turnover of the day when he delivered a big hit to RB Jerious Norwood that knocked the ball loose. Even if Vasher is able to play next week, the Bears secondary was decimated with injuries this week as Charles Tillman, Trumaine McBride, and Danieal Manning all left with injuries. So, it looks like Graham could be in the lineup for awhile longer.

CB Tim Jennings, IND (10 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 2 PD) - With starter Kelvin Hayden out of the lineup with a knee injury, Tim Jennings got a start at CB and turned in a huge performance against the Ravens. In addition to his team-leading 10 solo tackles, he also picked off a pass, forced a fumble, and tipped a pass that was intercepted by safety Melvin Bullitt. Hayden may not be out for long, but it would be smart to put Jennings on your radar now. It seems that almost any CB who starts in this Colts defensive scheme can be a productive fantasy option.

S Yeremiah Bell, MIA (8 solos, 4 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Bell has been playing like a top-10 fantasy DB so far this year even though he probably went undrafted in most fantasy leagues after suffering a season-ending injury in the season opener last year. He's a former special teams standout who plays well in space and a big hitter. He only has one interception in his career so he's not likely to add a lot in the coverage stats, but he's averaging almost 6 solo tackles and 3 assists per game. With some run-heavy teams coming up next on the schedule in Baltimore and Buffalo, he should continue to be a reliable starter.

S Chris Horton, WAS (10 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - This kid is turning into one of the most impressive breakout candidates of the season, which is even more impressive since he was only a 7th round draft pick back in April. He did suffer a minor ankle injury this week, but it's not believed to be serious. Meanwhile, all he did was finish the game with 10 solo tackles giving him 17 over the last 2 games since he took over as the full-time starter at strong safety.


Downgrades

DT Amobi Okoye, HOU (0 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Even though he got off to a great start in his rookie season, Okoye has struggled since then and has failed to make much of an impact in 5 games so far this year. He has recorded just 4 solo tackles in those games and is not putting any pressure on opposing QBs. The Texans started reducing his snaps in an effort to keep him fresh, but that will also limit the number of opportunities he has to make a play, which isn't likely to help his fantasy value. He's still young and talented enough to turn things around and form a potent tandem with Mario Williams as most defensive tackles take a few years to develop, but you probably shouldn't count on much from him this year.

DE Gaines Adams, TB (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Adams has been slightly deceiving this year as his numbers aren't that great but he's been propped up by a couple of interceptions and a defensive TD that are very unusual for a DE. In the two key statistics for a DE, solo tackles and sacks, he has just 9 solos and 2 sacks in 6 games. Making matters worse, his 2 sacks came in 1 game and he's finished 2 other games with 0 solo tackles. So, if it wasn't for the interceptions, we'd be looking at a player who probably only had 1 quality start out of 6 games. Obviously, the interceptions are a great sign of his athleticism but IDP owners would probably prefer if he started putting that to use to consistently rack up more tackles and sacks.

DE Dwight Freeney, IND (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Freeney suffered a hamstring injury last week so he played primarily as a pass rush specialist this week and he was held to zero sacks by unheralded Ravens LT Jared Gaither while his counterpart Robert Mathis terrorized RT Willie Anderson. Just when Freeney was starting to show signs of his fantasy potential with a 4 solo, 1 sack game last week, he comes up with a goose egg in what should have been a very favorable matchup as the Colts got out to a big lead early here.

DE James Hall, STL (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Now that Leonard Little is back and playing well, the Rams have a crowded situation at DE and it looks like Hall is going to suffer after getting off to a great start this season. Victor Adeyanju got the start at LDE this week so he appears to be ahead of Hall on the depth chart and will likely split time with Little at that spot. That leaves the RDE spot, where Hall is going to have a hard time stealing snaps from rookie Chris Long. Hall is a solid veteran who was playing well, but it looks like he'll probably need another injury to become relevant again from a fantasy perspective.

DE Lawrence Jackson, SEA (0 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Jackson had a great start to his rookie season with 4 solos and 2 sacks in week 2 against the 49ers, but he's failed to record a sack in the 3 games since then. He'll get another great matchup against the 49ers in week 8, but until he starts producing against offenses that aren't coached by Mike Martz, you'll probably want to leave him out of your lineup, especially after he was held to just a single assisted tackle this week against the Packers.

ILB Tedy Bruschi, NE (0 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - With 12 tackles in the season opener, it looked like Bruschi might have some value left this year but his production has dropped way off the past two games with just 2 solos and 2 assists. The Patriots are struggling on both sides of the ball, and it doesn't look like Bruschi has a whole lot left in the tank at 35 years of age.

OLB Scott Fujita, NO (0 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Fujita had a huge game in the opener before missing a couple games with a knee injury. Since returning to the lineup, however, he hasn't really looked like the same player and it appears that he's been replaced in the team's nickel package by Scott Shanle. In the past 3 games, Fujita has only been credited with 2 solos and 2 assists while Shanle has 5 solos and 5 assists. Fujita used to be the rare SLB who could still be a reliable fantasy option but the trade for Vilma and loss of nickel snaps appears to have completely killed his fantasy value.

OLB A.J. Hawk, GB (2 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Hawk has yet to miss a game this year, but he's playing injured and it is hurting his production. In the first 3 games of the season, he recorded 19 solo tackles, 7 assists, and 2 sacks. In his last 3 games, he has just 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, and no big plays. Until he gets over this groin injury, you probably want to leave him on your bench as long as you have a better option available.

OLB Jyles Tucker, SD - Tucker was starting to play like Shawne Merriman with 8 solo tackles and 3 sacks in a 2-game stretch, but he's now missed 2 games with a hamstring problem and it looks like he could be miss next week's game as well. While he still has nice potential in a big-play league, this seems like the type of injury that could linger and make it tough for him to play with the same degree of explosiveness he had before the injury.

CB Fred Bennett, HOU (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - With Dunta Robinson out of the lineup this year while recovering from an injury, Bennett was expected to take over as the #1 CB after a solid rookie campaign in 2007. It hasn't really led to a bump up in his production, however, as he's been credited with just 12 solo tackles and 0 interceptions in 5 games. Matchups against the Lions and Bengals in the next two weeks might help turn things around for him if he's still on your roster, but he hasn't shown much to get excited about this year.

CB Nate Clements, SF (1 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Clements had a great first season in San Francisco last year after signing a huge free agent contract, but his production has fallen way off so far this year and it looks like he's going to have a hard time living up to his preseason expectations. If you look back at his year by year production, he has had 2 big tackle seasons in which he finished with 81 and 77 solos but the rest of the time he finished in the 50s. With just 18 solos in 6 games this year, it looks like he might even have trouble cracking 50. Clements definitely looks like one of this year's bigger fantasy disappointments and a great example of how difficult CB production can be to predict.

CB Antonio Cromartie, SD (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Cromartie came into the season as the #1 CB according to ADP data on the strength of his 10 interceptions last season. He's certainly a threat to score a TD in every game he plays, which makes him tough to bench. He also has finished with 5 or more solo tackles in 3 of 6 games so far this year which is a good sign for his potential to eventually develop into a more consistent performer. But, if you take away his huge week 3 game against the Jets this year, he's been a pretty mediocre fantasy option. He's also dealing with a hip injury right now, which could make it tougher for him to play the way most IDP owners expect.

S Clinton Hart, SD (0 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Hart suffered a shoulder injury in week 5 that wasn't expected to be serious, but it's hard to ignore his stat line this week when he finished with 0 solo tackles and just 1 assist. He enjoyed a breakout season in 2007 when he won the starting SS job in the preseason and finished with 68 solo tackles and 5 interceptions. His tackle numbers have fallen off a bit, but the big plays have been non-existent and that has turned him from a marginal starter into a player that probably isn't much better than waiver wire fodder in most leagues.

S Lawyer Milloy, ATL (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Milloy went from being one of the Falcons leading tacklers in most games this season to a very disappointing 1 solo game against the Bears this week. According to reports, he was briefly knocked out of the game after taking a knee to his rib cage. He also almost knocked out the Falcons best WR Roddy White in a practice collision last week. Since this was Milloy's only bad game of the season, it's important not to overreact and he also has next week's bye week to recover.

S Aaron Rouse, GB (1 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Rouse looked like he was ready to emerge as a fantasy starter with 14 solo tackles and 5 assists over a recent 2-game stretch. Unfortunately, after missing week 5 with a knee injury, he started this week against the Seahawks but left the game late in the first half with a head injury. The problem isn't expected to keep him out of the lineup in week 7 when the Colts come to Green Bay, but he definitely seems pretty banged up and is probably a risky play until he proves that these nagging injuries are behind him.