Week 6 IDP Upgrades and Downgrades
by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.comUpgrades
DT Mike Patterson, PHI (8 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Patterson reached 50 solo tackles last season and finished as a top-5 fantasy DT. This year, the Eagles are playing much better defensively and Patterson's stats seemed to suffer in the first month of the season as he had just 3 solos and 3 assists in 4 games. He blew up this week against the Redskins and set a career high for solo tackles with 8. Based on his past success, it wouldn't be a surprise if he was able to build off this and finish strong after the slow start.DT Jay Ratliff, DAL (3 solos, 2 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Ratliff is the Cowboys' starting nose tackle but he also sees some time at DE and plays in the team's nickel package. Through 5 games now, he has recorded 3 sacks while also adding 12 solos and 8 assists, making him one of the league's best fantasy DTs and a decent backup in leagues that don't separate ends from tackles.
DE John Abraham, ATL (6 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Abraham got off to a great start this season with 6 sacks in his first 3 games, but he only recorded 7 solo tackles during that same span. This week, in addition to recording his league-leading 7th sack, he also put up 6 solo tackles, which is the most he's had since week 3 of 2005 during his last year with the Jets. Despite a 10-sack season last year, Abraham was way under almost everyone's radar this offseason and now he sits as the highest scoring fantasy DE in the league.
DE Alex Brown, CHI (4 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Brown has been a very consistent DE throughout most of his career. He doesn't put up big sack numbers, but he's very strong against the run and gets enough pressure on opposing QBs to generally be a very solid backup in most leagues. He's making the Bears look smart for giving him the starting RDE job back this year with 3 sacks in 5 games.
DE Dwight Freeney, IND (4 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Freeney came into the season with some question marks due to the foot injury that kept him out most of the preseason. With 3 sacks in his first 4 games, however, it looks like he has his old explosiveness back. Freeney can still be a frustrating player to own due to his low and inconsistent tackle numbers, but he looks like he should be able to get back to double digit sacks this year and make an impact in big-play leagues.
ILB Zach Diles, HOU (6 solos, 3 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - Diles continued his breakout season with another solid performance this week. He's now recorded at least 5 solo tackles in all 4 games this year and he's also added a couple of big plays, including his first career interception which came at the expense of Peyton Manning this week. He's replaced Morlon Greenwood in the team's nickel package and looks like he's headed for an 80+ solo tackle season. Diles did leave the game with an injury this week but it doesn't sound like it will keep him out of action next week.
OLB Boss Bailey, DEN (9 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Although he missed the season opener and has a lengthy injury history, Bailey has been one of the most productive tacklers in the league lately. Even though he plays SLB, he sees a lot of time in passing situations, which has allowed him to average nearly 7 solo tackles per game. He hasn't broken 50 solo tackles since his rookie season in 2003, but it looks he could be an excellent free agent pickup to help your team get through the bye weeks as long as he can stay healthy.
OLB Keith Bulluck, TEN (7 solos, 6 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Even though Bulluck averaged over 100 solo tackles for 5 straight years (2002-2006), his production fell way off last year and many fantasy owners probably dropped him when he recorded just 3 solos and 3 assists in his first 2 games of 2008. His production has picked up since that point, however, and he topped it off with an impressive 13 tackle (7 solos) performance this week. The Titans have a bye next week, but the schedule looks pretty favorable for Bulluck down the stretch so he might not be a bad guy to target if you're looking for LB help. While he probably isn't going to return to the elite at his position, he can still be a solid LB3/LB4 type in most leagues.
OLB Takeo Spikes, SF (7 solos, 7 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - In a game when Patrick Willis finished with 18 total tackles (14 solo), Spikes still managed to get involved in 14 tackles (7 solo) himself. He also added an interception for the second week in a row. That makes 14 solo tackles, 8 assists, and 2 interceptions over the past two weeks. It looks like the 49ers found a bargain when they picked up Spikes just before the season started, and quite a few fantasy owners who started him this week probably feel the same way.
OLB Demarcus Ware, DAL (4 solos, 1 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Although Ware is a better real-life LB than fantasy LB, he's putting together a pretty remarkable stretch. He's recorded a sack in all 5 games he's played this year which gives him a streak of 9 straight games with at least 1 sack going back to last season and including the playoffs. His numbers have improved every year that he's been in the league and it looks like he should continue that trend once again this year.
CB Tramon Williams, GB (10 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - Williams took over a starting CB job with the Packers in place of Al Harris and all he's done is record 12 solos, 2 interceptions, and 3 passes defensed over the past two games. It's unclear exactly when Harris will return, but Williams is playing well and gives the Packers some much needed depth in a secondary that has been hit hard by injuries. Williams also figures to see plenty of targets playing opposite a veteran like Charles Woodson.
CB Josh Wilson, SEA (8 solos, 3 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Although Wilson didn't make much of an impact as a rookie after the Seahawks drafted him in the 2nd round a year ago, he's starting to see a lot of activity. He started in place of Kelly Jennings in week 3 vs the Rams and finished with 7 solos, ranking 2nd on the team. Jennings left the game this week with a concussion, which provided more playing time for Wilson and he finished with a team-high 11 tackles (8 solos). Wilson, along with the rest of the Seahawks secondary, had a hard time slowing down the Giants passing game. If the Jennings concussion keeps him out of the lineup, Wilson can probably expect to get a lot of attention from opposing QBs in the week's ahead.
S Melvin Bullitt, IND (6 solos, 4 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - A report came out this week that Bob Sanders is expected to be out of the Colts lineup until November. That additional window of opportunity could make his replacement, Melvin Bullitt, a viable player to pick up if you're looking for additional DB depth to get you through the bye weeks. Bullitt made the team as an undrafted free agent last year and he's now put up 12 solos, 6 assists, and an interception in his two starts. He's a bit of a liability in the secondary, but he's also likely to see plenty of tackle opportunities as the Colts continue to struggle against the run.
S Brian Dawkins, PHI (8 solos, 0 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - While Dawkins has likely lost a step at 35 years of age, he's proving early on this year that he can still be a very effective playmaker. Through 5 games, he has been credited with 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and 2 sacks. If he can continue to rack up tackles like he did this week, he could be a solid DB3 for your team the rest of the season. Next week's matchup against the 49ers also looks pretty favorable for him.
S Chris Horton, WAS (7 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Horton has been one of the most impressive rookies in the league this year and he seemingly came out of nowhere as a 7th round pick. He picked off 2 passes in his first career start back in week 2 and then added another in the upset of the Cowboys in week 4. His impressive instincts and range have allowed him to unseat Reed Doughty as the Redskins starting SS, and he responded by leading his team in tackles in another huge road win over a division rival.
Downgrades
DT Jovan Haye, TB (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Haye finished 2007 as the highest-ranked fantasy DT in many leagues thanks to an impressive combination of tackles (48 solos and 20 assists) and sacks (6). He continues to start at under tackle for the Bucs, but has recorded just 9 solo tackles and 1 assist through 5 games. There is a chance that he's still not in great shape after sitting out the preseason with a groin injury, but he also appears to be doing a better job of keeping blockers off the linebackers instead of getting pressure on opposing QBs.DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, GB (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - The Packers placed RDE Cullen Jenkins on IR last week and then his replacement Mike Montgomery left the game this week with an ankle injury. Instead of turning to the veteran KGB, however, the Packers wound up turning to rookie DE Jeremy Thompson. Despite all the injuries, the Packers appear content to keep KGB in his pass-rush specialist role. With just 2 solos and a half sack in 5 games this year along with some tough matchups in the weeks ahead, it looks like his days as a fantasy option may be over, even in big-play leagues.
DE Antwan Odom, CIN (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - During his last year with the Titans, Odom put up 8 sacks and just 16 solo tackles. It was a breakout season of sorts from a pass rush perspective and helped him get a nice free agent contract from the Bengals this offseason. The person he was replacing, Justin Smith, was normally one of the leading tacklers from his position but a consistent disappointment as a pass rusher. Well, it looks like Odom is now giving fantasy owners the worst of both worlds. With just 6 solo tackles in 5 games, he still isn't putting up enough tackles for anyone to rely on. Additionally, his 1 sack in 5 games is making last year's 8 sacks look like a fluke.
DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, TEN (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Vanden Bosch has performed like a top-10 DE ever since joining the Titans in 2005 and he recorded 3 sacks in his first 4 games, but his tackle numbers are way down with just 7 solos through 5 games. Making matters worse, he was held scoreless this week after leaving the game midway through the first half with a groin strain. The Titans have a bye next week, which may give him enough time to recover in time for a favorable matchup against the Chiefs in week 7.
ILB Channing Crowder, MIA (0 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - After a fantasy start to the season with 15 solo tackles in his first two games, Crowder looked like he was headed for a big breakout season. Since then, however, the wheels have come off a bit as he has been credited with just 4 solos in the past two games including 0 this week against LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers. Crowder came into the season with a great opportunity but the improvement the Dolphins have shown on offense in recent weeks has limited the rush attempts against them. He probably isn't as bad as his numbers the past two weeks would indicate, but he may not be much more than a backup in most leagues.
ILB E.J. Henderson, MIN - Henderson reportedly suffered two dislocated toes last week that forced him to miss week 5's game against the Saints. Reports came out on Monday that the Vikings will place Henderson on injured reserve, thereby ending his season. He's expected to be replaced in the lineup by David Herron, although Ben Leber will likely replace him in the nickel package.
ILB Lofa Tatupu, SEA (3 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Tatupu has been a top-10 LB in the past even though he generally puts up fewer tackles than other elite LBs. The main reason for his success has been his coverage skills and big play numbers. Well, with the Seahawks struggling on offense compared to previous years, the big plays have disappeared this season. Also, Tatupu is averaging just 4 solo tackles/game, which would project out to just 64 in a full 16 game season. He is still a very instinctive linebacker who probably has better days ahead, but it may be time to sit him if you have better options available.
OLB A.J. Hawk, GB (2 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Hawk injured his groin in the week 4 game against the Buccaneers and was listed as questionable on this week's injury report. He wound up playing through the injury but he didn't look to be the same player. Over the past two games now, he has recorded just 4 solo tackles combined compared to the 19 solos and 2 sacks he put up in 3 games before the injury. Groin injuries have a tendency to linger, and even if Hawk continues to play through it, you should consider sitting him until he gives you a good reason not to.
OLB Mike Vrabel, NE (0 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Vrabel started off the season on fire with 2 sacks against the Chiefs but he's been nearly invisible since then. Over the past 3 games, Vrabel has collected just 4 solo tackles and 4 assists. He's coming off a double digit sack season, but he's also likely to start slowing down at 33 years of age and the Brady injury has resulted in much fewer pass rush opportunities so far.
CB Richard Marshall, CAR (1 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Marshall has been very productive as a #3 CB for the Panthers the past two years, but things appear to have changed this year. First, the Panthers offense is playing much better which is allowing them to sustain long drives and keep the defense off the field. Second, the Panthers have played some of the league's weaker passing games which has probably forced them to use their base package more and their nickel package less. If either Panthers starter gets injured, Marshall should see a big jump in his production but it looks like you should only start him in games hen you expect the opponents to pass a lot.
S Reed Doughty, WAS (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Doughty entered the season with some nice potential as the Redskins safety most likely to play up in the box, but it appears that he's already lost his starting job to the rookie Chris Horton. Doughty missed week 2 with an illness and Horton played great in his place. Then, the two players wound up splitting time in week 4 against the Cowboys, but this week Horton got the start and Doughty finished with just a single solo tackle.
S Chris Harris, CAR (1 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Harris was one of the biggest IDP surprises in 2007 thanks to his 8 forced fumbles. He looked like he was going to pick up where he left off with 9 solos and a forced fumble in the opener, but he's cooled off since then. In the past 4 games, Harris has recorded just 11 solo tackles and 1 forced fumble. Don't read too much into his low output this week as it came in a blowout win over the Chiefs where Larry Johnson had just 7 rush attempts, but his low production is starting to look like a trend rather than a 1-week outlier.
S LaRon Landry, WAS (2 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Landry is a very talented player, but it looks like the way he is being used in Washington this year is going to kill his fantasy value. As the free safety, the Redskins like to play him deep in order to prevent any big plays, but this keeps him away from most of the action and allows teams to avoid him more than if he were playing up in the box as a strong safety. He's yet to record a single interception in his career and his tackle numbers have fallen way off the past 2 weeks. Landry is young and talented enough to turn things around in a hurry, but it looks like a potential breakout season for him is probably still another year away.
S Adrian Wilson, ARI (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - After missing week 4 with a hamstring injury, Wilson returned to action this week against the Bills but was held off the statsheet. He did knock out Bills QB Trent Edwards with a concussion on an early blitz, but that was it for him. Although many expected him to return to his status as one of the league's elite fantasy safeties this year, it looks like we probably have to lower our expectations for him. The emergence of Gerald Hayes and Karlos Dansby is likely resulting in fewer tackle opportunities and he's not getting as many big plays as he has in the past either.















