Week 11 IDP Upgrades and Downgrades
by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.comUpgrades
DE Ryan Denney, BUF (8 solos, 3 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 2 PD) - Denney has taken over for Aaron Schobel at RDE for the Bills, but he hadn't made much of an impact before this week. Although not much of a sack threat (he hasn't recorded a sack since the season opener), he's a very solid run defender who could be a decent source of tackles with the Bills struggling on both sides of the ball. Denney led the team with 8 solo tackles this week and he also took advantage of his height to bat down 2 passes for the second week in a row.DE Derrick Harvey, JAX (2 solos, 1 assists, 1.5 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Harvey missed all of training camp and nearly the entire preseason while holding out in a contract negotiation. That definitely set him back aways, but he was clearly one of the best pure pass rushers available in this year's draft, which is why the Jaguars traded up to get him. He's still not playing a full-time role for the Jags so his tackle numbers are probably going to be inconsistent, but he's got 2.5 sacks over his last 2 games and certainly looks like a player who could contribute down the stretch and especially in 2009.
DE Julius Peppers, CAR (7 solos, 0 assists, 3 sacks 2 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Peppers looked like his old dominant self on Sunday, almost single handedly carrying the Panthers to a victory. The Panthers moved him around on the defensive line to make it harder for the Raiders to double team him and it paid off with his best game in years. In addition to his impressive 7 solos and 3 sacks, he also came up with 2 forced fumbles, 3 tackles for a loss, a QB hit, and a PD that was almost an interception. This was the 2nd week in a row that the RDE facing the Raiders finished with 3 sacks as John Abraham did it a week ago. With the way that Raiders LT Kwame Harris is struggling, Dolphins ROLB Joey Porter could be in for a huge game next week.
DE Ty Warren, NE (5 solos, 2 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Like most of the Patriots players, Warren got off to a slow start this season. As the team and defense has turned things around, he's also seen his numbers start to improve. Scoring system will clearly have an impact on his value, but he's now recorded 3 or more solo tackles in 6 of the last 7 games and that type of consistency is hard to find from a defensive lineman. He's also recorded a sack in 2 of his last 3 games so he has the potential to be a useful player in all formats if he can keep that up.
ILB Eric Barton, NYJ (8 solos, 2 assists, 0.5 sacks 0 FF, 1 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Barton has mostly been a solid depth player over the past couple years but the injury to David Harris has led to a bump up in his production and responsibilities. He's producing like an everyweek starter with 15 solo tackles and 3 assists over the past 2 weeks. With David Harris expected to miss another couple of weeks after undergoing groin surgery, Barton looks like an excellent replacement if he's available.
ILB Desmond Bishop, GB (8 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Packers MLB Nick Barnett suffered a torn ligament in his knee during the game this week that will knock him out for the rest of the season. Desmond Bishop replaced him in the lineup this week and finished with 8 solo tackles in about a half of work. Given that Barnett's numbers were lower than expected this year, and that Bishop may not play in the team's nickel or dime package, it's probably safe to say that his upside is limited. But, if he does take over as the MLB for the rest of the season, he's certainly worth a look in deeper leagues. Bishop is a strong and instinctive player who was very productive at Cal, but he fell to the 6th round of the draft due to concerns about a lack of speed.
OLB Kevin Bentley, HOU (4 solos, 3 assists, 1 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Bentley got his first start with the Texans this year after taking over WLB for the injured Zach Diles, who went on IR with a broken leg suffered in practice last week. Bentley is a smart, veteran player who has been in the league for awhile but mostly as a backup in recent years. He may lose some snaps to the rookie Xavier Adibi, but he put up solid numbers this week and could provide depth in deeper IDP leagues given that Diles had been putting up better numbers than DeMeco Ryans.
OLB Scott Fujita, NO (11 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Fujita is a talented player who has been a fantasy disappointment for much of the year after a very impressive 2007. The addition of Vilma certainly didn't help his fantasy value, but he also missed time with an injury earlier this year and seemed to lose his role in the Saints nickel package for awhile as well. This week, he was all over the place, finishing with a team-high 11 solo tackles while Vilma finished with just 2. This probably won't continue but Fujita is definitely better than his numbers for much of this year have indicated.
OLB Jamie Winborn, DEN (12 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - The Broncos LB group has been decimated by injuries so Winborn's value continues to rise as he's the last man standing. He originally took over the SLB spot for Boss Bailey, but WLB DJ Williams and MBL Nate Webster have also gone down with injuries the past couple weeks. That leaves Winborn as the most experienced LB on the roster, which should keep him on the field in all downs and situations. In a comeback victory over the Browns on Thursday night, Winborn finished with an amazing 12 solo tackles. He also looks to have a nice matchup coming up against the Falcons next week.
OLB Wesley Woodyard, DEN (10 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Woodyard took over at WLB for DJ Williams this week and finished with an impressive 10 solo tackles. Woodyard went undrafted due to concerns about his small size, but he's very fast and the Broncos think he has a future in the league. With all the injuries the Broncos have had to deal with at LB, he's going to get a great chance to show what he can do.
CB Keiwan Ratliff, IND (6 solos, 2 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - With starting CB Marlin Jackson on IR and Kelvin Hayden missing his fifth game in a row while trying to recover from a knee and hamstring injury, Keiwan Ratliff started the game opposite Tim Jennings. The two inexperienced corners have both been productive and figure to do well as long as they stay in the lineup. Ratliff was credited with 7 solo tackles in his first start a week ago and followed that up with a 6 solo, 1 INT performance this week. Keep an eye on the injury news for Hayden, but Ratliff could be a very nice play against the Texans next week.
S Kenny Phillips, NYG (5 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Phillips made his first career start at SS for the Giants this week and finished with 5 solo tackles, ranking 2nd on the team. He was the highest-ranked safety in the draft, and even though the team has brought him along slowly he has a chance to be a special player. He flashed his potential on a 1st half blitz when he nearly sacked McNabb. Look for the Giants to get him more involved in their defense, even if James Butler is able to play next week.
S Bernard Pollard, KC (9 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - Many had high expectations for Pollard coming into this season. He's a ferocious hitter who was coming off a 74 solo tackle season last year, his first as a starter. While he hasn't really been bad this year, he also hasn't been as good as expected. He's shown signs of turnings things around lately, however, with 9 tackles against the Jets in week 8 and then 10 tackles against the Chargers this week. The Chiefs defense remains one of the worst in the league, but their offense seems to have found some life since Tyler Thigpen took over at QB, and that should give Pollard a chance to salvage his season and solidify his hold on the Chiefs SS job for the future.
S Brodney Pool, CLE (6 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 1 INT, 1 PD) - The biggest knock on Pool over the past couple years is that he hasn't been the playmaker many expected him to be when he came out of Oklahoma. It looks like he's beginning to change that, as he now has 2 interceptions, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery in his last 5 games. He's also averaging close to 5 solos/game over that time period, which makes him a very solid option in leagues with standard scoring rules.
Downgrades
DE Leonard Little, STL (1 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - During a 3-game stretch from weeks 4 to 7, Little recorded 9 solo tackles and 4.5 sacks. He injured his hamstring the following week, however, and hasn't quite been the same since. In the last 3 games, Little has recorded just 2 solo tackles and no sacks. He was healthy enough to start this week, but the game got quickly out of hand as the Rams trailed the Jets by 40 points at halftime. Little has a good matchup coming up against the 49ers next week, so that might be his best chance to get back on track.DE Turk McBride, KC - Although McBride has no sacks on the year, he's been a steady source of tackles with 22 in 8 games. Unfortunately, he sat out the game this week with a shoulder injury and initial reports have indicated that he will miss next week's game as well. His replacement, Alfonso Boone, finished the game this week with 3 solo tackles.
DE Will Smith, NO (1 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Smith has a potential suspension hanging over him, but with the way he's been playing will the Saint even miss him? He hasn't recorded a sack since week 4 and he's been credited with just 19 solo tackles in 9 games. He's been a huge disappointment this season.
DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, TEN - It's amazing to see the Titans cruising along at 9-0 on the season when they haven't gotten any meaningful contributions from their best pass rusher since week 4. Vanden Bosch had 3 sacks in his first 4 games, but he's been slowed by a groin injury that is taking a long time to heal. He sat out the game against the Bears this week and could do the same next week if he's not fully healthy.
DE Dewayne White, DET (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - White has been one of the year's breakout players at the DE position. He came into his week 10 game with 26 solo tackles and 5.5 sacks in his first 8 games, which would obviously project out to 50+ solo tackles and double digit sacks. Unfortunately, White was forced to leave the game this week with a calf injury and early reports indicate that he'll miss next week's game as well. It's been a miserable year for the Lions and things don't appear to be getting better anytime soon.
ILB Nick Barnett, GB (5 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - Barnett suffered a torn knee ligament this week that will knock him out for the rest of the season. Coach McCarthy didn't specify which ligament it was, but speculation is that it was a torn ACL. If so, that means 9 months of rehabilitation for Barnett, but he may be able to return in time for the 2009 season. Barnett has been remarkably durable up to this point in his career, playing in 87 out of 89 possible regular season games. The Packers are expected to insert 2nd year pro Desmond Bishop into the lineup at MLB to replace him.
ILB David Harris, NYJ - On a per game basis, Harris was easily the most productive defensive player in the league last year. He wasn't able to keep up that pace this year, however, and then he was knocked out of the lineup with a groin injury a couple weeks ago. Making matters worse, he underwent groin surgery last week and is now expected to miss an additional 2 or 3 weeks. He might not return until week 13 against the Broncos, and even then the team may bring him back slowly to make sure he's fully recovered. Looks like this may wind up being a wasted season for Harris, who was considered a top-5 LB at the beginning.
ILB Nate Webster, DEN (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - The hits just keep on coming for the Broncos and their LB group. After losing Boss Bailey and DJ Williams in recent weeks, Webster left the game on Thursday night with a sprained MCL. It's expected to keep him out of the lineup for at least a week or two. He'll be replaced in the lineup by free agent pickup Niko Koutouvides, who was expected to take over the MLB job this year but has mostly been limited to special teams duty so far.
OLB Ben Leber, MIN (2 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 1 PD) - The season-ending injury to EJ Henderson was expected to boost the value and production of Leber, but it hasn't really worked out that way. He's playing in the team's nickel and dime packages, but over the past 3 games, Leber has been credited with just 6 solo tackles. The Vikings opened the game this week with their dime defense and Leber was a part of it, so it's strange that his production would be so low.
OLB Ernie Sims, DET (2 solos, 3 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Something just doesn't seem right with Sims lately. He averaged about 90 solo tackles during his first two years in the league and he had 34 solo tackles in his first 6 games this year. He's been credited with just 6 solo tackles over his last 3 games, however, and he no longer seems like a must-start each week. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury that may be limiting his effectiveness, but with as bad as the Lions defense has been, his numbers should be better.
OLB Adalius Thomas, NE (2 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Thomas suffered a broken arm against the Bills this week. He's expected to undergo surgery on Wednesday and the Patriots will probably place him on injured reserve afterwards. Thomas was having a pretty solid season up to this point, with 25 solo tackles and 5.5 sacks in 9 games. The Patriots don't have a lot of depth at OLB but will likely turn to Pierre Woods to fill his spot.
CB DeAngelo Hall, WAS - In one of the strangest moves of the year, DeAngelo Hall was released by the Raiders last week and quickly signed with the Redskins. It wasn't strange based on the way Hall was playing as he was probably one of the worst CBs in the league this year. It was strange because the Raiders traded a 2nd and 5th round pick for him and signed him to a 7-year, $70 million contract not too long ago. Hall was producing like a top-5 fantasy DB in many leagues because he was being picked on every week. It's unclear how he'll fit in with the Redskins, but he'll likely need some time to learn the system and then he'll have to compete with Fred Smoot for playing time opposite Carlos Rogers.
CB Nick Harper, TEN (0 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Harper entered the game this week as one of the leading tacklers at his position, but he was forced to leave the game with an ankle injury and finished with 0 tackles. The severity of the injury is unknown and initial reports indicate that he'll be questionable to play next week against the Jaguars.
S Chris Harris, CAR (4 solos, 0 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Harris was one of the biggest surprises of the 2007 season as he finished the year with nearly 80 solo tackles and an incredible 8 forced fumbles. Many fantasy owners drafted him among the top-10 safeties this year because of his breakout season, and they probably felt pretty good about that choice after seeing what he did in the opener (9 solo tackles, 1 FF). In the 8 games since then, however, he's only been credited with 20 solo tackles and 1 forced fumble. There are probably better options available on the waiver wire in most leagues.
S Quintin Mikell, PHI (2 solos, 1 assists, 0 sacks 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT, 0 PD) - Mikell got off to a great start, but his production has fallen off dramatically since the Eagles bye week. In 5 games before the bye, Mikell averaged almost 7.5 tackles per game while also adding 2 interceptions, a sack, and a forced fumble. In the 3 games since the bye, he's averaged just 4 tackles per game and has no big plays. He should get a chance to improve on his big play numbers with a matchup against the Bengals next week, but his recent dropoff is not a good sign for his prospects the rest of the season.















