Predicting the Top 20 Running Backs for 2008

Posted 8/18 by Jeff Haseley, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The answer is quite simple. It's all in the carries. Over the last five years, 74% of all RBs who reached 200 carries, finished in the top 20 for that year. So now the question really is, predicting who will reach 200 carries. Last year, 22 RBs had 200 carries or more. Five of those 22 did not finish in the top 20 in 2007 (S. Alexander, J. Fargas, W. Dunn, D. Foster, T. Jones). Four RBs finished in the top 20 in 2007 that did not have at least 200 carries (*C. Taylor, K. Watson, R. Grant, M. Jones-Drew).

*Chester Taylor tied Brandon Jacobs in FP so there really were 21 RBs in the top 20 in 2007.

If we do the same calculations with 220 carries or 240 carries, etc it gives an even greater percentage of predicting the top 20.

Over the last five years

200+ carries has resulted in a 74% chance of making the top 20
220+ carries = 77%
240+ carries = 81%
260+ carries = 89%
280+ carries = 95%

The 2008 Footballguys projections suggest 27 players will reach 200 carries. Those numbers are based on past averages, team totals and the difficult to predict forecast of what's to come. Take for example the projection of Michael Turner's 265 carries for 1200 yards.

27 projected RBs with 200+ carries in 2008

Carries / Player

305 LaDainian Tomlinson
300 Clinton Portis
295 Larry Johnson
285 Marshawn Lynch
285 Jamal Lewis
275 Adrian Peterson
275 Joseph Addai
275 Steven Jackson
275 Edgerrin James
265 Michael Turner
255 Frank Gore
255 Willis McGahee
250 Willie Parker
250 Thomas Jones
250 LenDale White
245 Brian Westbrook
245 Brandon Jacobs
240 Ryan Grant
235 Marion Barber III
235 Laurence Maroney
225 Earnest Graham
220 Matt Forte
210 Darren McFadden
210 Selvin Young
200 Ronnie Brown
200 Fred Taylor
200 Rudi Johnson

Missing from this list that could finish in the top 20 are...

Maurice Jones-Drew
Reggie Bush
Chester Taylor
Kevin Smith
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
Julius Jones/Maurice Morris
Chris Johnson

There are a few RBs from the list of 27 that I don't think will finish in the top 20. Those include...

Ronnie Brown - The latest thumb injury, plus the presence of Ricky Williams and the fact that Brown is not 100% healthy moves him off the list for me
Laurence Maroney - Maroney had 185 carries last year. With the addition of LaMont Jordan and the full load of Patriots RBs, I just don't see Maroney playing that big of a role
Brandon Jacobs - Jacobs had only 201 carries last year and with the emergence of Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward, I don't see him as a lock for more than 220 carries
Rudi Johnson - Not only do I think he has lost his edge, I don't see him scoring a lot of TDs this year. Kenny Watson and Chris Perry will share the load thus lowering Johnson's carries
Willie Parker - Willie is the last one out of this list for me. He's not a lock for 230 carries and he may again lose goal line carries in 2008, this time to rookie Rashard Mendenhall

Removing the above five players now yields a field of 22 possible top 20 RBs

LaDainian Tomlinson
Clinton Portis
Larry Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Jamal Lewis
Adrian Peterson
Joseph Addai
Steven Jackson
Edgerrin James
Michael Turner
Frank Gore
Willis McGahee
Thomas Jones
LenDale White
Brian Westbrook
Ryan Grant
Marion Barber III
Earnest Graham
Matt Forte
Darren McFadden
Selvin Young
Fred Taylor

Injuries are going to happen and usually someone from the same team winds up filling the spot left in the rankings. Take for example last year when Cadillac Williams was lost for the season with an injured knee. At the beginning of the season he was a projected top 20 RB. Earnest Graham took over for the Buccaneers and eventually replaced Williams in the top 20. In some cases, a player gets injured and misses time, but not enough time to allow someone else on the team to fully replace them. As a result, neither player cracks the top 20 and therefore it opens it up to someone else. There are at least seven other someone else's in the group below - the same group of players that didn't crack the 200+ carry list, but have the talent to reach the top 20 list. Maurice Jones-Drew appears a lock to be the first one to benefit if one of the above 22 gets injured, but there are others who have a chance to gain entry as well. Kevin Smith, in my opinion is a lock for 200 carries and probably even more. I do not see Tatum Bell wrestling away the RB1 role from Smith. As a result, Smith is also someone who has a legit chance to crack the top 20.

Maurice Jones-Drew
Reggie Bush
Chester Taylor
Kevin Smith
DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart
Julius Jones/Maurice Morris
Chris Johnson

It's impossible to predict injuries, but I will remove four players from the list of 22 to simulate injury or ineffectiveness . Gone are Thomas Jones, Matt Forte, Selvin Young and Fred Taylor. Now adding in Maurice Jones-Drew and Kevin Smith finally yields a field of 20.

In no particular order, here is my predicted list of the Top 20 RBs of 2008.

LaDainian Tomlinson
Clinton Portis
Larry Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Jamal Lewis
Adrian Peterson
Joseph Addai
Steven Jackson
Edgerrin James
Michael Turner
Frank Gore
Willis McGahee
LenDale White
Brian Westbrook
Ryan Grant
Marion Barber III
Earnest Graham
Darren McFadden
Maurice Jones-Drew
Kevin Smith

It is very possible and almost expected that someone unbeknown to us at this time could crack this list, especially if there is an injury to one of the above players that causes that player to be lost for the season or at least significant time. Someone like Tim Hightower could replace Edgerrin James on this list. Or Ray Rice could replace Willis McGahee. Chris Johnson has an outside chance to make the list even if teammate LenDale White stays healthy. The Titans running game is that potent. If Frank Gore gets hurt, I don't necessarily think DeShaun Foster would automatically replace him on this list. This would then open the door for someone else - perhaps Reggie Bush, Chester Taylor or Fred Taylor.

Each year the cutoff point for reaching the RB Top 20 changes. The last ten years the cutoff points have been up and down almost randomly, which makes it hard to predict what the cutoff will be for 2008.

2007 - 155 FP
2006 - 174 FP
2005 - 160 FP
2004 - 175 FP
2003 - 160 FP
2002 - 182 FP
2001 - 146 FP
2000 - 182 FP
1999 - 144 FP
1998 - 146 FP

Conclusion

The more carries, the greater the chance of reaching the top 20 list. Not even factoring in TDs, the carries appear to tell the story. With an increase in carries comes more red zone chances and with more red zone chances, comes more TDs. In most cases, 280 or more carries means you're in - 95% of the time, that is. Thomas Jones (310 carries in 2007) was an exception last year and part of the 5%, as he finished 22nd. 280 carries is only 17.5 carries per game. Last year 14 RBs averaged 17.5 carries on a per game basis (listed below) but only nine averaged that for the entire season.

Carries on a per game basis (bold averaged >17.5 carries per game the entire season)

21.5 Marshawn Lynch
21.4 Willie Parker
20.3 Clinton Portis
20.2 Edgerrin James
19.9 Jamal Lewis
19.8 Steven Jackson
19.8 Larry Johnson
19.7 LaDainian Tomlinson
19.6 Willis McGahee
19.4 Thomas Jones
18.9 LenDale White
18.5 Brian Westbrook
18.4 Brandon Jacobs
17.8 Cedric Benson

* Note the presence of Brandon Jacobs on the above list, who I omitted in my list of the top 20. My thinking is that Jacobs will have too much competition from Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward. If there is one player that I could add to the list it would be Jacobs and then Willie Parker. We'll see how things shake up, but my gut says both will come up just short.