Running Backs vs. Wide Receivers - Tale of the Tape

  Posted 8/12 by Jeff Haseley, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Are you wondering if you should draft a second RB when others might take a WR? Perhaps your goal is to draft a top flight WR over a second RB? What is the difference between running backs and wide receivers from a fantasy perspective? On average, which position scores more fantasy points? Which gains more yards on a weekly basis or yearly basis? How much of a difference is the value of an elite RB vs. an elite WR? At what point is drafting a WR better value than drafting a RB? Before deciding, take a look at how running backs and wide receivers stack up against each other.

* Fantasy points below are non-PPR and use a default 1 point per 10 yards rush/receiving with 6 points per TD scored

2007 season

• 150+ FP
  RB 21 lllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 15 lllllllllllllll
• 175+ FP
  RB 12 llllllllllll
  WR 9 lllllllll
• 200+ FP
  RB 6 llllll
  WR 5 lllll
• 250+ FP
  RB 2 ll
  WR 1 l
• 15+ FP games
  RB 186 llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 147 lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
• 20+ FP games
  RB 85 lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 66 llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
• 25+ FP games
  RB 31 lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 22 llllllllllllllllllllll
• 30+ FP
  RB 12 llllllllllll
  WR 8 llllllll
• 35+ FP
  RB 7 lllllll
  WR 3 lll
• 10+ TD (season)
  RB 6 llllll
  WR 10 llllllllll
• 5+ TD (season)
  RB 26 llllllllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 37 lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
• Multiple TD games (rush TD vs. rec TD)
  RB 43 lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 65 lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
• Three+ TD games
  RB 6 llllll
  WR 8 llllllll
• 100+ yard games
  RB 142 llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 141 lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
• 150+ yard games
  RB 18 llllllllllllllllll
  WR 23 lllllllllllllllllllllll
• 200+ yard games
  RB 3 lll
  WR 3 lll
• 1000 yard season
  RB 17 lllllllllllllllll
  WR 20 llllllllllllllllllll
• 1200+ yard season
  RB 9 lllllllll
  WR 9 lllllllll
• 1400+ yard season
  RB 1 l
  WR 4 llll

Historical Evolution (1000-yard seasons)

• 1990
  RB 8 llllllll
  WR 10 llllllllll
• 1992
  RB 13 lllllllllllll
  WR 7 lllllll
• 1995
  RB 16 llllllllllllllll
  WR 23 lllllllllllllllllllllll
• 1997
  RB 16 llllllllllllllll
  WR 18 llllllllllllllllll
• 2000
  RB 23 lllllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 17 lllllllllllllllll
• 2002
  RB 17 lllllllllllllllll
  WR 22 llllllllllllllllllllll
• 2005
  RB 16 llllllllllllllll
  WR 19 lllllllllllllllllll
• 2007
  RB 17 lllllllllllllllll
  WR 20 llllllllllllllllllll
• 1000 yard seasons (last three years)
  RB 55 lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
  WR 58 llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
• Increase of 1000 yard seasons from 1990 - 2007
  RB +9 lllllllll
  WR +10 llllllllll

Observations

• From a fantasy point standpoint, the RBs have a better than slight advantage over the WRs, but when it comes to more TDs individually and across the board, the WRs have the advantage. Yardage is pretty close to equal with a slight lean to the WRs.
• Receiving yards from RBs and the fantasy points they generate put the RBs over the top when comparing them to WRs.
• Leagues that reward points for receptions will see an even greater increase, however leagues that reward reception points for WRs only will see a more equal outcome.
• 1000 yard seasons for both RBs and WRs have increased since 1990. They have reached a plateau with occasional spikes in random years.

RB Top 40 vs. WR Top 40 - Fantasy point margin 2007 season

• RB1 vs. WR1: RB+22
• RB2 vs. WR2: RB+56
• RB3 vs. WR3: RB+14
• RB4 vs. WR4: RB+26
• RB5 vs. WR5: RB+33
• RB6 vs. WR6: RB+24
• RB7 vs. WR7: RB+10
• RB8 vs. WR8: RB+6
• RB9 vs. WR9: RB+10
• RB10 vs. WR10: RB+10
• RB11 vs. WR11: RB+13
• RB12 vs. WR12: RB+13
• RB13 vs. WR13: RB+11
• RB14 vs. WR14: RB+12
• RB15 vs. WR15: RB+13
• RB16 vs. WR16: RB+11
• RB17 vs. WR17: RB+11
• RB18 vs. WR18: RB+12
• RB19 vs. WR19: RB+15
• RB20 vs. WR20: RB+16
• RB21 vs. WR21: RB+17
• RB22 vs. WR22: RB+13
• RB23 vs. WR23: RB+13
• RB24 vs. WR24: RB+6
• RB25 vs. WR25: RB+2
• RB26 vs. WR26: RB+5
• RB27 vs. WR27: RB+5
• RB28 vs. WR28: RB+2
• RB29 vs. WR29: RB+3
• RB30 vs. WR30: RB+3
• RB31 vs. WR31: RB+3
• RB32 vs. WR32: RB+1
• RB33 vs. WR33: EVEN
• RB34 vs. WR34: WR+2
• RB35 vs. WR35: WR+2
• RB36 vs. WR36: WR+3
• RB37 vs. WR37: WR+5
• RB38 vs. WR38: WR+4
• RB39 vs. WR39: WR+1
• RB40 vs. WR40: WR+1
• RB45 vs. WR45: WR+5
• RB50 vs. WR50: WR+16
• RB55 vs. WR55: WR+16
• RB60 vs. WR60: WR+10
• RB65 vs. WR65: WR+23
• RB70 vs. WR70: WR+22
• RB75 vs. WR75: WR+18

Observations

• Even with Randy Moss' career year, he still finished 22 FP behind LaDainian Tomlinson.
• Last year saw an increase in production from WRs across the board, but the best WRs can't equal the fantasy production of the elite RBs
• WRs did not surpass the RBs until the WR33 (Roy Williams) equaled the RB33 (Maurice Morris). After that point, the WRs had the advantage in FP margin.

2007 FP - Where do they equal each other?
What is the current 2008 ADP for those ranks?

Approx 200 FP:

• RB7 Marion Barber 198 FP
• WR5 Larry Fitzgerald 201 FP

2008 ADP:

• RB7 (F. Gore) 8th
• WR5 (L. Fitzgerald) 19th

Approx 175 FP:

• RB12 Marshawn Lynch 177 FP
• WR10 Plaxico Burress 175 FP

2008 ADP:

• RB12 (Jones-Drew) 20th
• WR10 (S. Smith) 28th

Approx 150 FP:

• RB22 Thomas Jones 146 FP
• WR15 Bobby Engram 151 FP

2008 ADP:

• RB22 (E. James) 44th
• WR15 (Roy Williams) 41st

Approx 125 FP

• RB29 Ron Dayne 125 FP
• WR26 Bernard Berrian 125 FP

2008 ADP:

• RB29 (S. Young) 63rd
• WR26 (J. Cotchery) 72nd

Approx 100 FP

• RB39 Travis Henry 100 FP
• WR40 Santana Moss 100 FP

2008 ADP:

• RB39 (C. Johnson) 104th
• WR40 (J. Walker) 106th