1000-yard Rookie Running Backs - The Last Ten Years
Posted 7/24 by Jeff Haseley, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Quick trivia question - Who was the last rookie RB to have 300+ carries in his rookie season? The answer may surprise you. LaDainian Tomlinson in 2001 with 339 carries. Six years have past since we've seen a rookie RB with 300+ carries.
Over the last ten years dating back to 1998, the NFL has produced 17 rookie RBs who have rushed for 1000 yards or more in their rookie season.
- Only three of those 17 had 300 carries or more. LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis and Edgerrin James.
- The average amount of carries for those 17 rookie RBs is 278
- The average amount of carries for rookie 1000-yard backs in the last six years is 258
- Each of the last six years no rookie RB has exceeded 290 carries.
What's in store this season for rookie RBs Darren McFadden, Kevin Smith, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte, Rashard Mendenhall, et al? History suggests that at least one of these backs will reach at least 250 carries and over 1000 yards, but the likelihood of one of them reaching 300 carries is low. Very low.
- Out of the 17 rookie RBs to reach 1000 yards rushing in the last ten years, only four came from the NFC
- Both Detroit and Chicago represented two of the four rookie backs from the NFC to reach this accomplishment, so all is not lost for Kevin Smith and Matt Forte. Jonathan Stewart, not so much.
300+ carry rookie RBs by decade
- 1960s: 0
- 1970s: 2 (Earl Campbell, Ottis Anderson)
- 1980s: 5 (Joe Cribbs, Billy Sims, George Rodgers, Curt Warner, Eric Dickerson)
- 1990s: 5 (Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Karim Abdul Jabar, Eddie George, Edgerrin James)
- 2000s: 2 (Jamal Lewis, LaDainian Tomlinson)
Stat comparisons of 1000-yd Rookie RBs and the team's RB2
From the last ten years (note that "%" is the percentage of the team's carries)
| Player |
Team
|
Year
|
Att
|
Yards
|
YPC
|
RshTDs
|
%
|
| Adrian Peterson |
Min
|
2007
|
238
|
1341
|
5.6
|
12
|
48.1
|
| Chester Taylor |
Min
|
2007
|
157
|
844
|
5.4
|
7
|
31.7
|
| Marshawn Lynch |
Buf
|
2007
|
280
|
1115
|
4.0
|
7
|
62.5
|
| Fred Jackson |
Buf
|
2007
|
58
|
300
|
5.2
|
0
|
12.9
|
| Joseph Addai |
Ind
|
2006
|
226
|
1081
|
4.8
|
7
|
51.4
|
| Dominic Rhodes |
Ind
|
2006
|
187
|
641
|
3.4
|
5
|
42.5
|
| Cadillac Williams |
TB
|
2005
|
290
|
1178
|
4.0
|
6
|
63.4
|
| Michael Pittman |
TB
|
2005
|
70
|
436
|
6.2
|
1
|
15.3
|
| Kevin Jones |
Det
|
2004
|
241
|
1133
|
4.7
|
5
|
59.2
|
| Artose Pinner |
Det
|
2004
|
57
|
174
|
3.1
|
2
|
14.0
|
| Willis McGahee |
Buf
|
2004
|
284
|
1128
|
4.0
|
13
|
58.7
|
| Travis Henry |
Buf
|
2004
|
94
|
326
|
3.5
|
0
|
19.4
|
| Dominick Williams |
Hou
|
2003
|
238
|
1031
|
4.3
|
8
|
56.5
|
| Stacey Mack |
Hou
|
2003
|
93
|
253
|
2.7
|
4
|
22.0
|
| Clinton Portis |
Den
|
2002
|
273
|
1508
|
5.5
|
15
|
59.7
|
| Mike Anderson |
Den
|
2002
|
84
|
386
|
4.6
|
2
|
18.3
|
| LaDainian Tomlinson |
SD
|
2001
|
339
|
1236
|
3.6
|
10
|
77.9
|
| Terrell Fletcher |
SD
|
2001
|
29
|
107
|
3.7
|
0
|
6.6
|
| Anthony Thomas |
Chi
|
2001
|
278
|
1183
|
4.3
|
7
|
58.5
|
| James Allen |
Chi
|
2001
|
135
|
469
|
3.5
|
1
|
28.4
|
| Dominic Rhodes |
Ind
|
2001
|
233
|
1104
|
4.7
|
9
|
53.1
|
| Edgerrin James |
Ind
|
2001
|
151
|
662
|
4.4
|
3
|
34.4
|
| Mike Anderson |
Den
|
2000
|
297
|
1487
|
5.0
|
15
|
57.5
|
| Terrell Davis |
Den
|
2000
|
78
|
282
|
3.6
|
2
|
15.1
|
| Jamal Lewis |
Bal
|
2000
|
309
|
1364
|
4.4
|
6
|
60.4
|
| Priest Holmes |
Bal
|
2000
|
137
|
588
|
4.3
|
2
|
26.8
|
| Edgerrin James |
Ind
|
1999
|
369
|
1553
|
4.2
|
13
|
88.0
|
| Keith Alias |
Ind
|
1999
|
13
|
28
|
2.2
|
0
|
3.1
|
| Olandis Gary |
Den
|
1999
|
276
|
1159
|
4.2
|
7
|
59.3
|
| Terrell Davis |
Den
|
1999
|
67
|
211
|
3.1
|
2
|
14.4
|
| Fred Taylor |
Jac
|
1998
|
264
|
1223
|
4.6
|
14
|
54.2
|
| James Stewart |
Jac
|
1998
|
53
|
217
|
4.1
|
2
|
10.8
|
| Robert Edwards |
NE
|
1998
|
291
|
1115
|
3.8
|
9
|
72.2
|
| Sedrick Shaw |
NE
|
1998
|
48
|
236
|
4.9
|
0
|
11.9
|
Breakdown by team - 1000-yd rookie RBs (in the last ten years)
- MIN
- BUF (2)
- IND (3)
- TB
- DET
- HOU
- DEN (3)
- SD
- CHI
- BAL
- JAC
- NE
Average stats from 1000-yd rookie RB (last ten years)
278 carries, 1231 yards rushing, 9.6 rushing TD, 4.4 YPC
Average stats from 2nd best RB on the team (last ten years)
362 yards on 88 carries, 4.1 YPC
Average % of team (includes rushes from all positions)
- 1000-yard rookie RB: 61.2%
- 2nd best RB on team: 19.2%
Team rank in rushing offense
- 2007 MIN (Adrian Peterson) 1st
- 2007 BUF (Marshawn Lynch) 15th
- 2006 IND (Joseph Addai) 18th
- 2005 TB (Cadillac Williams) 14th
- 2004 DET (Kevin Jones) 19th
- 2004 BUF (Willis McGahee) 13th
- 2003 HOU (Dominick Williams) 23rd
- 2002 DEN (Clinton Portis) 5th
- 2001 SD (LaDainian Tomlinson) 20th
- 2001 CHI (Anthony Thomas) 17th
- 2001 IND (Dominic Rhodes) 7th
- 2000 DEN (Mike Anderson) 3rd
- 2000 BAL (Jamal Lewis) 5th
- 1999 IND (Edgerrin James) 19th
- 1999 DEN (Olandis Gary) 12th
- 1998 JAC (Fred Taylor) 5th
- 1998 NE (Robert Edwards) 27th
Highest finish: 1st (Adrian Peterson)
Lowest finish: 27th (Robert Edwards)
Average finish: 13th
Rank among all RBs in rushing yards
- 2007 MIN (Adrian Peterson) 2nd
- 2007 BUF (Marshawn Lynch) 11th
- 2006 IND (Joseph Addai) 18th
- 2005 TB (Cadillac Williams) 13th
- 2004 DET (Kevin Jones) 13th
- 2004 BUF (Willis McGahee) 14th
- 2003 HOU (Dominick Williams) 15th
- 2002 DEN (Clinton Portis) 4th
- 2001 SD (LaDainian Tomlinson) 9th
- 2001 CHI (Anthony Thomas) 11th
- 2001 IND (Dominic Rhodes) 13th
- 2000 DEN (Mike Anderson) 4th
- 2000 BAL (Jamal Lewis) 7th
- 1999 IND (Edgerrin James) 1st
- 1999 DEN (Olandis Gary) 11th
- 1998 JAC (Fred Taylor) 10th
- 1998 NE (Robert Edwards) 15th
Most yards: 1553 (Edgerrin James, 1999)
Fewest yards: 1031 (Dominick Williams, 2003)
Average finish: 10th
Over the years - average stats from 1000-yard rookie RBs
- Last two years: 248 carries, 1238 rushing yards, 8.6 rush TD, 4.9 YPC
- Last four years: 259 carries, 1162 rushing yards, 8.3 rush TD, 4.4 YPC
- Last six years: 258 carries, 1189 rushing yards, 9.1 rush TD, 4.6 YPC
- Last eight years: 271 carries, 1222 rushing yards, 9.2 rush TD, 4.5 YPC
- Last ten years: 278 carries, 1231 rushing yards, 9.6 rush TD, 4.4 YPC
Conclusion
With the increase in teams using a two-back approach, there are fewer occurrences where a rookie RB has a huge season. Since 1992 at least one rookie RB has reached the 1000-yard rushing plateau. However, the carries by each rookie back has decreased over time. What's also interesting is the that the average 1000-yard rookie RB comes from a team that is outside of the top 10 in team rushing offense. One other important note is the average numbers from the RB2 on a team that produces a 1000-yard rookie back. On average the RB2 on a team with a 1000-yard rookie RB has only 88 Carries for 362 yards. That is not very impressive at all. Is that what we can honestly expect from guys like Justin Fargas, Willie Parker, DeAngelo Williams, Tatum Bell, Kevin Jones, etc this year? It will be interesting to see what 2008 brings, but if you're wondering what has happened in the past, history doesn't lie. Keep in mind, these are average numbers, but it's interesting to look at stats from different angles that might very well predict the future or at least give a glimpse of coming trends.