Needles From the Haystack - Week 17

Posted 12/24 by Jeff Haseley, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Are you a fan of interesting stats or tidbits of information about what's happening in the NFL? I make it my goal to unearth the most useful and useless stats that you can or can't think of. If that kind of thing excites you, sit back, relax and read on, because in the haystack of the NFL, I have found some needles.

...And yet they still have a chance to win the AFC West

The Broncos are 8-7 even though they have been outscored by 47 points this season. Only one other team with a winning record has a negative point differential this year and that's Arizona at -12. Just in case you're wondering, the Lions have been outscored by 239 points. Wow.
Tony Scheffler and Darrell Jackson have longer receptions than Brandon Marshall this season
The Broncos have yielded 396 points this season, good for fifth worst in NFL. The other four teams are a combined 12-48
The Broncos have highly touted corners in Dre Bly and Champ Bailey (yes, Champ has missed some time), but they have combined for only 3 picks all year
Denver as a team only has 6 INTs, while their opponents have 16
Denver's turnover margin is -15 with one more game to play
All of this, and the team is still 8-7 with a chance to win the AFC West

Teams that run and stop the run

Perhaps the favorites to win the Super Bowl?

Teams who average 140 yards rushing yards or more per game

158.9 NYG
149.9 BAL
148.1 MIN
146.9 CAR
145.3 ATL
141.1 TEN
140.7 NE

Teams who average less than 100 yards rushing allowed per game
73.0 MIN
78.5 PIT
78.9 BAL
91.3 CHI
91.9 TEN
92.6 PHI
92.8 NYJ
93.7 WAS
94.9 NYG

Greatest rushing differential

MIN 75.1 (and yet they may not make the playoffs now)
BAL 71.0
NYG 64.0
TEN 49.2

Limping into the Playoffs

Things are looking bleak in Ariz-Woe-Na. What happened?

Arizona has lost four of their last five games with the one win thanks to lowly St. Louis
They can't run - or at least they don't try. Hard to imagine with HC Ken Whisenhunt being a former OL. Tim Hightower has 45 carries in the last five games. All other ARI RBs combined have 17. Hightower has a total of 97 yards or 2.2 YPC in that span.
Anquan Boldin has not scored a TD since week 12 after scoring 10 TDs prior to week 11

Milestone Alert

Drew Brees needs 402 yards passing against Carolina on Sunday to beat Dan Marino's all time record of 5084 yards passing in a season.
DeMarcus Ware needs four sacks to break Michael Strahan's all time single season sack record of 23.5 sacks
Peyton Manning needs 93 yards passing to reach 4000 yards passing in a season for the ninth time in 11 years
DeAngelo Williams needs one rushing TD of 30 yards or more to tie the single season record of seven rushing TDs of 30 yards or more set by Jim Brown
Arizona WR Steve Breaston needs 85 yards receiving to be the third player on the team with 1000 yards receiving this season. This hasn't happened since 1989 when Ricky Sanders, Art Monk and Gary Clark accomplished the feat.
Randy Moss needs five yards receiving to reach 1000 yards for the season, giving the Patriots two WRs with 1000 yards. Wes Welker being the other. New England would join Arizona as the only teams this year with two players with at least 1000 yards receiving. Dwayne Bowe needs 81 yards to join Tony Gonzalez for 1000. Muhsin Muhammad needs 156 yards to reach 1000 to pair him with Steve Smith for the 1000-yard tandem.
Tony Gonzalez needs nine catches to reach 100 for the season, which would be the second time in his career he has reached 100 receptions in a season
More Gonzalez - he needs 11 targets to break his own record of 154 targets in a season, the most ever by a TE in a season
Eddie Royal needs 96 yards to be the first rookie WR with 1000 yards since Marques Colston in 2006
Derrick Ward needs 52 yards to reach 1000 yards rushing, thus giving the Giants two RBs with at least 1000 yards rushing, Brandon Jacobs being the other. The last time this happened was in 1985 when Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack turned the trick with the Cleveland Browns. Atlanta had two players with 1000 yards rushing in 2006, but one was not a RB (Michael Vick). The other was Warrick Dunn.
Lions RB Kevin Smith needs 116 yards rushing to reach 1000 yards on the season. If he reaches 1000 yards, he'll join Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton and Matt Forte thus marking the only time in NFL history where four rookies RBs rushed for 1000 yards or more in the same season.
TE John Carlson needs seven catches to reach 60 for the season, which would mean four rookies would have 60 receptions or more this year. This has only happened once in NFL history in 1996 when Mike Alstott, Terry Glenn, Marvin Harrison and Keyshawn Johnson accomplished the feat. Carlson would join Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and Matt Forte if he reaches that mark
Three rookies have reached 10 rushing TDs in a season only once before - 1980 when Billy Sims, Curtis Dickey and Joe Cribbs accomplished the feat. It could happen again this year, in fact there could conceivably be five. Tim Hightower already has 10 rushing TDs, but close behind is Chris Johnson with 9, Jonathan Stewart with 9, Matt Forte with 8 and Steve Slaton with 8

From the "That's Interesting" File

The two longest runs so far this year have come from RBs who weigh in at 260 and 235 lbs. (Le'Ron McClain 82 yards and LenDale White 80 yards)
The worst team in the league, Detroit Lions have the #2 ranked fantasy WR and the #19 ranked RB, yet they have yet to win a game (week 17 withstanding)
The Giants have only lost three fumbles all season
Broncos RB Cory Boyd and perhaps Alex Haynes could be the 12th and 13th players to have a rushing attempt for Denver this year. Denver has a remarkably high eight RBs on IR in 2008.
Speaking of Denver - they do not have a single player with more than 80 carries this year. Michael Pittman has 76 and Peyton Hillis has 68. Both are done for the year on IR. The next closest is 61 by Selvin Young
Terrell Owens has the most receptions (63) for any player with a reception percentage of less than 50%. Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes are the only other players with more than 30 receptions with a sub 50% reception percentage.

Smelling like a rose

Yours truly was the lone staff member who back in January suggested that Footballguys could go with DeAngelo Williams on the cover of the 2008 Strategy Guide this year. My pitch - "Talk about a gutsy prediction. This would be a shocker, but we'd come out smelling like a rose if we were right".

Trivia Question of the Week

Five teams have a 1000-yard rusher and a 1000-yard receiver this season. Can you name the five teams and can you name each of the ten players? (see bottom for answer)

You can count on me

Four teams have had only one QB make every pass attempt this season for their team. Interestingly enough, if San Diego wins on Sunday, all four teams will be playoff bound.

Atlanta - Matt Ryan
Carolina - Jake Delhomme
Indianapolis - Peyton Manning
San Diego - Philip Rivers

*New Orleans and Washington have only used one QB all year, but they have pass attempts from Lance Moore and Antwaan Randle El respectively.

In contrast

The Lions have used five different QBs including two Drews (Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, Drew Henson, Drew Stanton and Daunte Culpepper). The Chiefs, Browns, Raiders and Cardinals have also used five different players to attempt a pass this year - although not all were QBs.

But they weren't the most

St. Louis had six different players attempt a pass this year. QBs Marc Bulger, Trent Green, Brock Berlin, WRs Dante Hall and Dane Looker and P Donnie Jones

And in case you were wondering...

Donnie Jones isn't the only punter to attempt a pass.

Dirk Johnson, ARI 1-for-1, 10 yards
Brian Moorman, BUF 1-for-1, 19 yards, TD
Brad Maynard, CHI 0-for-1, 0 yards
Matt Turk, HOU 0-for-1, 0 yards
Donnie Jones, STL 0-for-1, 0 yards

Breaking down the top 10 fantasy rankings

Which players are on playoff teams?

Top 10 QBs

Drew Brees, NO - not a playoff team
Philip Rivers, SD - potential playoff team
Aaron Rodgers, GB - not a playoff team
Jay Cutler, DEN - potential playoff team
Kurt Warner, ARI - locked into the playoffs
Peyton Manning, IND - locked into the playoffs
Matt Cassel, NE - potential playoff team
Donovan McNabb, PHI - potential playoff team
Tony Romo, DAL - potential playoff team
David Garrard, JAC - not a playoff team

QB Summary

Two QBs who are locked into the playoffs
Three QBs who are not in the playoffs
Five QBs who are potential playoff teams

Top 10 RBs

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - locked into the playoffs
Michael Turner, ATL - locked into the playoffs
Thomas Jones, NYJ - potential playoff team
Matt Forte, CHI - potential playoff team
Adrian Peterson, MIN - potential playoff team
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC - not a playoff team
Brian Westbrook, PHI - potential playoff team
Clinton Portis, WAS - not a playoff team
Chris Johnson, TEN - locked into the playoffs
Steve Slaton, HOU - not a playoff team

RB Summary

Three RBs who are locked into the playoffs
Three RBs who are not in the playoffs
Four RBs who are potential playoff teams

Top 10 WRs

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - locked into the playoffs
Calvin Johnson, DET - not a playoff team
Andre Johnson, HOU - not a playoff team
Anquan Boldin, ARI - locked into the playoffs
Greg Jennings, GB - not a playoff team
Roddy White, ATL - locked into the playoffs
Steve Smith, CAR - locked into the playoffs
Randy Moss, NE - potential playoff team
Antonio Bryant, TB - potential playoff team
Terrell Owens, DAL - potential playoff team

WR Summary

Four WRs who are locked into the playoffs
Three WRs who are not a playoff team
Three WRs who are potential playoff teams

Top 10 TEs

Tony Gonzalez, KC - not a playoff team
Dallas Clark, IND - locked into the playoffs
Jason Witten, DAL - potential playoff team
Antonio Gates, SD - potential playoff team
Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN - potential playoff team
Owen Daniels, HOU - not in the playoffs
John Carlson, SEA - not in the playoffs
Chris Cooley, WAS - not in the playoffs
Zach Miller, OAK - not in the playoffs
Greg Olsen, CHI - potential playoff team

TE Summary

One TE locked into the playoffs
Five TEs not in the playoffs
Four TEs who are potential playoff teams

The four #1 ranked players

Two players locked into the playoffs
Two players not in the playoffs

The 12 top three ranked players

Four locked into the playoffs
Five not in the playoffs
Three potential playoff teams

Trivia Answer

ATL, CAR, HOU, GB, SD each have a 1000-yard rusher and receiver

Atlanta - Michael Turner 1491 yards rushing, Roddy White 1334 yards receiving - 2825 total
Carolina - DeAngelo Williams 1337 yards rushing, Steve Smith 1287 yards receiving - 2624 total
Houston - Steve Slaton 1190 yards rushing, Andre Johnson 1427 yards receiving - 2617 total
Green Bay - Ryan Grant 1097 yards rushing, Greg Jennings 1191 yards receiving - 2288 total
San Diego - LaDainian Tomlinson 1014 yards rushing, Vincent Jackson 1051 yards receiving - 2065 total

Thanks as always - Enjoy the games!

Please feel free to send any comments to haseley@footballguys.com.