2008's Dynamically Valued Players

Posted 8/11 by Forrest Johnson, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Whether you are in a draft or auction league, understanding player value is critical to building a winning team. Drafting a player in the first round who would be available in the second round has lost many a championship. Similarly, getting other owners to overpay for players in an auction setting has resulting in winning many a championship. Fantasy football players spend many hours pouring over historical projections, injury reports, strength of schedule, and even the smallest of comments from coaches and players to gain an insight into how a player might perform in this upcoming year. But knowing how you value a player is only one part of the picture….

The purpose of this article is to identify the players who have the widest range of value in 2008, and explain how to exploit this variation to your advantage. As player value has the most applicability in an auction setting where every player is assigned a specific dollar value, this article will focus on an auction-based league. Armed with this list of dynamically valued players, the savvy owner can execute an auction strategy that significantly increases the odds of a successful fantasy football season.

What Is Dynamic Value?

In the simplest terms, a player with a large dynamic value has a large variability in how people think he will perform. This type of player may be #4 on some lists of projections, and #24 on other lists of projections. Another description of these players is "high risk, high reward". In more complex terms, these are players with a high standard deviation of their projections. Standard deviation is a measure of the variability of a set of data (i.e., a measure of the dispersion of a set of values), with a high standard deviation resulting in a large dynamic value.

Factors that typically increase dynamic value include:

Players returning from injury, or recovering from surgery
Players changing teams, or new to the league
Players on teams with significant coaching philosophy changes
Players with uncertain contract status
Players starting the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list
Players with fresh competition at their position

Exploiting Dynamic Value

Exploiting dynamic value is dependent on your personal evaluation of a player. In the first scenario, let's look at a player with a large dynamic value who you feel will not perform at the top of the range (i.e., a player you aren't very interested in acquiring). The primary way to exploit dynamic value for these players is to put them up for auction as soon as possible. Imagine that you are in a league with three owners who value a player highly, and seven others who value this player less. If all three of these interested owners have a lot of auction cap remaining, then a bidding war is likely to occur. The result of this bidding war decreases the available auction cap dollars of your opponents, thereby increasing the purchasing power of your auction dollars.

In the second scenario, let's look at a player with a large dynamic value who you feel will perform at the top of the range (i.e., a player you want to get). If this player is nominated later in the auction, one or two of the teams who also value this player may not have the available dollars to bid on the player, thereby decreasing the final cost you have to pay.

The simple act of identifying these dynamically valued players, and exploiting their inherent variability can create a significant advantage in an auction setting. In some leagues, players are nominated by general discussion and not by a formal and ordered process, resulting in an even greater advantage to the owner who nominates the right players at the right time.

2008's Most Dynamically Valued Players

The following summary is based on information available as of mid July 2008 (e.g., Jeremy Shockey is now a Saint, Jason Taylor is now a Redskin, and Brett Favre was still a retired Packer). Changes may have occurred since the writing of this article, resulting in changes to the players on this list or the identification of new players.

It is critical to use a site like FBG to keep current on any fresh news on a player that might occur before your auction, as this can significantly impact player value. For example, FBG Staffer Mark Wimer conducted a survey in mid July to determine the perceived impact to Marshawn Lynch's value due to the hit-and-run allegations. Mark found that 33% of fantasy owners did not drop Lynch's value, but 67% moved him down in value and roughly 20% moved him down significantly (i.e., more than 10 draft spots). Someone tweaking a knee in a preseason game can cause a significant increase in dynamic value that you can use to your advantage on auction day.

In many of the examples below, the FBG Expert Ranking and standard deviation (i.e., measure of variability in the player's ranking) are listed for reference. To see player standard deviations on the FBG expert rankings pages, just add "&stdev=1" to the end of the page URL and hit enter. This will add the standard deviation after the age and experience text that shows up when you mouse over a player's name in the list. Now, let's get to this year's players!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers (GB): Top 10 to Top 30 (StDev = 6.9)
Let's start with the obvious. Rodgers is currently the Packers' QB, but there was the small matter of Brett Favre's potential return. Much of Rodgers' value stems from his solid Week 13 performance in the Dallas game when Favre was injured. If Rodgers struggles in the preseason, his variability could narrow significantly.

Derek Anderson (CLE): Top 5 to Top 20 (StDev = 3.2)
Last year was Anderson's first full season as a starter. Many will recall that he only threw for more than 200 yards one time in the last four games of the season, so there is somewhat of a letdown factor. There are also concerns about Brady Quinn taking over in this season.

Alex Smith (SF): Near Top 10 to outside of Top 30 (StDev = 5.3)
Smith is one of many players this year whose value is affected by the arrival of Mike Martz. Smith's lower overall ranking makes him more of a factor as a backup, or in 2 QB leagues, but his value is all over the map.

Donovan McNabb (PHI): Top 5 to Top 20 (StDev = 2.8)
McNabb's variability is primarily due to persistent injury concerns, and he's been all over the value map for several years. If you aren't interested in McNabb, nominate him immediately and there'll almost certainly be a taker.

Others: Vince Young (TEN) typically has a couple owners who are willing to pay to see him run. Philip Rivers (SD) had ACL surgery. Jake Delhomme (CAR) and Peyton Manning (IND) have also had procedures. Brett Favre (GB) is certainly a wildcard as well.

Running Backs

Reggie Bush (NO): Top 10 to Top 30 (StDev = 4.9)
Bush has always been a high dynamic value player. His highlight-reel explosiveness is attractive to many owners, and his pass catching ability gives him Top 5 potential. That said, Deuce McAllister and Aaron Stecker are still around.

Ronnie Brown (MIA): Top 15 to outside of Top 30 (StDev = 5.3)
Brown is returning from knee surgery on a torn ACL sustained in Week 7. Opinions vary on his ability to effective upon his return, and Ricky Williams poses a RBBC threat to Brown's productivity.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR): Top 20 to Honorable Mention (StDev = 5.7)
The rookie Stewart was drafted #13 overall, and could be the second coming of Stephen Davis for the Panthers. DeShaun Foster has left the team, but don't forget that DeAngelo Williams is still around, and Stewart carries no guarantees.

Willie Parker (PIT): Top 15 to Top 30 (StDev = 3.9)
Parker is returning from a broken fibula sustained in Week 16. He finished top 5 in yards last year, but had only 2 TDs. Rookie Rashard Mendenhall may take carries, as might Mewelde Moore. Parker has a lot of questions, which drive up his dynamic value.

Darren McFadden (OAK): Top 15 to Top 30 (StDev = 3.6)
This year, McFadden could be stuck in a RBBC situation, splitting carries with Fargas, Jordan and Bush. On the flip side, McFadden clearly has the potential to garner the majority of the carries on his way to a Rookie of the Year season (similar to Adrian Peterson's performance last year). McFadden is obviously a player of interest in most leagues.

Michael Turner (ATL): Top 15 to Top 25 (StDev = 2.9)
Turner moves from SD to ATL, and out of Tomlinson's shadow. The Falcons QB situation isn't exactly settled, and they are incorporating a new offensive scheme. It's Turner's show, however, and he's done pretty well with his previous opportunities.

Others: Julius Jones (SEA) arrives from Dallas, but T.J. Duckett is also in Seattle and may vulture TDs. Frank Gore (SF) may see more carries and targets as a result of Mike Martz's arrival, but the QB situation is less than ideal. Marion Barber (DAL) should benefit from Julius Jones' departure, but Jerry Jones did draft two RBs in April who might pick up where Jones left off.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson (DET): Top 10 to outside Top 35 (StDev = 8.0)
"Megatron" is the poster-child of dynamically valued players. The #2 draft pick last year, he tweaked his back early in his rookie season and his performance this year with a presumably healthy back has garnered broad speculation. The loss of Mike Martz is also a key uncertainty. Calvin is a player I'm nominating late, and hoping to land more affordably later in the auction.

Andre Johnson (HOU): Top 5 to outside Top 15 (StDev = 3.7)
Andre missed seven games last year with a knee injury, and his ability to stay healthy is a key factor. He clearly has the potential to be a dominant player. Basically, he's the Donovan McNabb of the WR pool. If you aren't interested in him, nominate him immediately.

Roddy White (ATL): Top 15 to Top 35 (StDev = 5.9)
White is another player impacted by a new offensive scheme, as well as QB uncertainty that impacts his potential value. The Falcons could stay with Chris Redman, or decide to start rookie QB Matt Ryan. No Alge Crumpler, no Warrick Dunn, and adding Michael Turner all means uncertainty for White.

Roy Williams (DET): Top 15 to barely Top 30 (StDev = 4.3)
Williams contends with Calvin Johnson (DET) for the lead role in the Mike Martz-less Detroit offense. How will the Kevin Smith perform for the Lions running game? Will the ongoing trade rumors finally become reality? Personally I think nominating Roy Williams early in your auction is an excellent ploy to motivate Tatum Bell.

Kevin Curtis (PHI): Top 20 to Unranked (StDev = 8.3)
Curtis is all over the map in ranking. He was clearly the #1 WR for the Eagles last year, but isn't even ranked by some of the FBG experts. Despite efforts to the contrary, Brian Westbrook can't do it all, and while the ball could get distributed to other players like Reggie Brown, I plan to nominate Curtis late and get him for excellent value.

Anthony Gonzalez (IND): Top 20 to Top 50+ (StDev = 9.3)
Marvin Harrison's status will drive Gonzalez final value. Keep an eye on Marvin and decide on a strategy for Gonzalez A potential Top 20 player that others aren't considering is always a nice option to have available.

Others: Bernard Berrian (MIN) arrives from Chicago, but Sidney Rice and Tarvaris Jackson are key factors. Brandon Marshall (DEN) returns from severed arm ligaments, but carries a lot of off-field baggage, not to mention Darrell Jackson (DEN) arrives from SF to mix things up. While it will likely end up less controversial than the current situation, Chad Johnson's (CIN) holdout potential and ankle injury also deserves continued scrutiny.

Tight Ends

Vernon Davis (SF): Top 5 to barely Top 20 (StDev = 3.7)
Davis is now in a Mike Martz offense, but there are QB concerns and he's been injured in each of his first two seasons. Davis' value depends on Mike Martz figuring out a way to incorporate Davis as a key part in his offensive plans, and Davis subsequently performing.

Alge Crumpler (TEN): Top 10 to outside of Top 20 (StDev = 3.9)
Crumpler moves from the Falcons to the Titans, and most importantly to QB Vince Young. If 2007 was an atypical year, and it certainly seems so from the Falcons' list of issues, then Crumpler should be expected to return to Top 10 or even Top 5 form.

Greg Olsen (CHI): Top 10 to outside of Top 20 (StDev = 3.8)
Quick, name a Bears WR other than Devin Hester. If you got Marty Booker, congrats! Rex Grossman may have similar difficulty locating the Bears WRs, which could result in a solid year for Olsen. All of this assumes that the 31 year old Desmond Clark is relegated to a backup role, and not involved in a TEBC scenario. Opinions vary.

Others: Kevin Boss (NYG) is clearly one to watch, with Jeremy Shockey now a New Orleans' Saint. Ben Watson (NE) had early March ankle surgery, and his value will depend largely on his speed of recovery.

Kickers

Mason Crosby (GB): #1 to Top 15 (StDev = 4.5)
The Packers were #1 in kicking points last year, and the rookie Crosby led the way. If the Packers' offense stalls in the red zone as much as some expect, then Crosby should again be the #1 kicker. Kickers need opportunities to be successful.

Others: Stephen Gostkowski (NE) has multiple #1 rankings down to multiple #10 rankings, and NE's scoring glut last year should be hard to duplicate. Similarly, Nate Kaeding (SD) ranges from #1 to #15, and you might be able to nominate him early and find someone who will pay the extra dollar or two.

Team Defense / Special Teams

Dallas Cowboys: Top 5 to barely Top 20 (StDev = 4.6)
In the FBG Expert Rankings, the Dallas squad has nine rankings in the Top 6 or better, and four rankings lower than Top 10 (down to 18th). Clearly Dallas has a polarized following.

Indianapolis Colts: #1 to outside the Top 20 (StDev = 6.2)
The Colts have five rankings in the Top 10, as well as rankings below the Top 20. Again, nominate the Colts DST early and you may find some takers.

Other: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers range from Top 5 to Top 20 (StDev = 4.7), and a lot will depend on the ability of the offense to stay on the field.

Conclusion

As we have discussed, many owners spend significant amounts of time generating their personal opinions of players, without considering how other owners may perceive these players. Demand for a player and availability of auction dollars to purchase a player will ultimately determine a player's final price. An owner who is able to manipulate the auction process to their advantage has a very real and tangible advantage. Knowing how you value a player AND how others may value a player is a powerful combination with the potential to deliver positive results. Hopefully this list of dynamically valued players comes in handy in building a winning team in 2008.