Mining for Value

  Posted 8/11 by Steve Florczyk, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

A deciding factor in fantasy football between a good squad and a poor one is the ability to secure good value picks in the draft. Don't get me wrong, working the waiver wire can turn a mediocre team into a playoff contender during the course of a season, but a solid draft gives you a head start. How do we find value picks in the draft? The Draft Dominator application is an excellent tool to locate value quickly during the draft, but how will you choose those value picks that you seek out? You need to dig a little deeper and "mine the stats" to find the real value. What I mean by real value is more than simply finding a player below his average draft position (ADP). Real value is when you pick a player who excels beyond the projections and ADP - for instance, the WR40 drafted ends the season as a WR15. This value may not be apparent until the end of the season (you'll probably have enjoyed your value pick all season), but the payoff will be there, especially compared to a similar player at draft time who may have gotten injured or otherwise underperformed. One real value pick will make you content, but string together a few real value picks (especially in rounds 4-9) and you will have a strong team.

In order to locate value picks, we need to dig into the player info more than just position and last season's stats. If you want to have a playoff bound team, you need look past the projections and look at the surrounding issues. I will expand on this in the next few paragraphs, but there are a series of questions to ask about players that you may draft (or are available to you in mock drafts from your draft slot). These questions aren't concerned with the player's on-field performance, but they may end up affecting it. Since your fantasy draft might go more quickly than you like, you should do your homework and check out players that might fall to you in the draft.

Contract Season

These two words should be music to a fantasy football player's ears. Most players outperform their previous seasons stats in years when their contracts are being negotiated - either during the season or afterwards, with potential free agency looming. Every player is looking for that big payday after their rookie contract and performing well in their contract year is essential to securing that big payday. While there are no sure bets with fantasy football, betting on a player to earn a lucrative new contract is a relatively safe bet. Some players in their contract year this season are: Steven Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Jeff Garcia, and Kurt Warner. These players may be graded similarly to other players at their positions on your cheatsheet, but you might want to give them a bump up the rankings since they are playing for new contracts.

Note - If a player signs a new contract during training camp or the season, you can still upgrade them, but realize that they won't have quite the same motivation as a player who remains unsigned for the season. The players who sign a new contract prior to or during the season will still tend to perform well.

Counterpoint

Watch out for players coming off of contract seasons. Once a player signs a big, new contract, their play is likely to slip or at least not match their previous season(s) - see previous point. While it is great for the player to have a big signing bonus, it does no good for you as a fantasy owner to overpay to draft them, and then deal with underperformance. Some players that this might be an issue for this season are: Bernard Berrian, Jerry Porter, Donte Stallworth, and any other big free agency signings. An example of this is Shaun Alexander. After he signed a huge contract following his MVP 2005 season, he never performed as well again. He had a decent year in 2006 and 2007 was a very poor year, especially compared to his MVP 2005 season. The money may not have made Shaun soft, but they lessened his drive for numbers, which hurt the fantasy owners who drafted him believing in a return to 2005 form.

Players Who Had a Down Year Last Season

The main point with averages is that they are comprised of numbers both higher and lower than the mean. Enough of this math talk, what am I trying to say here? Simply, a player who had a bad year last season (and has proven performance previously) is more likely to have a good season this year. There are lots of other complicating factors with this point, but if you play it safe and consider players with no major pro injuries and who have proven performance before, you can minimize your risk. I keep emphasizing "proven performance" because it is completely different if your rookie WR or 3rd WR struggled when they were "supposed" to have a huge year versus a WR like Steve Smith having a down year. Some players who fit this criterion are Steve Smith and Lee Evans, to name a few. This has a lot of judgment involved with it - you need to determine if the player's situation is better or worse than last season, in your opinion, to make it worth drafting them. However, if you start getting into the later rounds of the draft and you want to take a flyer on a player, they may still be available at a position when their possible risk isn't as dangerous if they don't meet expectations.

Counterpoint #1

Sometimes players who have down years are really just dropping off in fantasy performance. This is one of the fine points in choosing players and a place where upside must be considered. Be ware of older players (30+) who have had a down season in 2007 - they are more likely to underperform or experience a drop off in their performance. An example of this for this season is Torry Holt. He struggled last season, along with the whole Rams offense, with injuries to various starters and battled through his own injured knee. While he should be healed up and ready to go for this season, don't take a chance on him unless you get him as a steal.

Counterpoint #2

Players who have a huge year during the previous season compared to their career stats can be prone to underperform fantasy projections. There is typically a lot of excitement about the player's performance from the previous year, but there is usually an additional reason for their overperformance. Many times, the offense may have experienced injuries at that position or other positions and relied on the player more heavily, or there are various other situations that can come into play. No matter what the cause of the player's overperformance, if a player exceeds their typical career average by 20+%, be ware. In some cases, the player has developed, their offense has improved, or other tangible reason (that will continue in the current season), the increased projections are warranted. Be sure to remember that there is significant turnover in the top 20 at many positions, especially RB.

Players Returning From Injury

Players who get injured during the previous season have diminished stats and are less popular in the offseason fantasy football discussions. Their diminished stats might lead to lower projections, which can create a greater value for the owner who takes a chance on a player recovering from an injury. Be sure to track players during training camp and make sure that there are no significant setbacks to their recovery. A good example of this is Andre Johnson. He suffered a serious injury (sprained PCL, much less severe than torn) during the season last year and was able to return during the season and perform well. However, he had an arthroscopic procedure performed on his injured knee during the offseason. The surgery was simply to clean up damage in the knee. Many owners will see this and may dismiss or downgrade him during their drafts this year - use this to your favor to get additional value. Be sure that Johnson's knee isn't causing any problems for him during training camp and draft him in the 3rd or 4th round after several other WRs have been selected. Knowing that his offseason surgery was relatively minor will allow you to get additional value out of your pick.

Counterpoint

All injuries are different, but that being said, there are some injuries that you should avoid. Players recovering from an ACL or other knee ligament tear/reconstruction should be avoided for the year after their procedure. The reason for this is that they may still be able to play, but in many instances, it takes two years for the player to fully recover to their "pre-injury" performance. A good example of this for the upcoming season is Ronnie Brown. Ronnie Brown suffered a serious knee injury (torn ACL) last season which ended his season. While he has had surgery and completed rehab, he will still likely underperform his projections. Even if he performs well this season, the risk of drafting him in the top few rounds eliminates any value.

Conclusion

Using these points outlined above, you can begin to probe deeper into the players that you might draft and determine if they will really perform to your expectations. While these criteria aren't foolproof, they may help you consider some players that are currently undervalued who will perform well throughout the season. Players that fit multiple criteria are excellent bets to outperform their draft positions and provide big value to your fantasy squad. Adding a few of these players to your team will put you on the fast track to the playoffs.