How Will Jeremy Shockey Affect the Value of Marques Colston?

  Posted 8/11 by Dave Barnett, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Value, value, value. We are all trying to understand and judge what a player's value is as we prepare for the upcoming fantasy season. Sometimes this is a fairly easy process. We all know how to value guys like LaDainian Tomlinson and Matt Cassel - one is very, very good and one is useless unless Tom Brady gets run over by one of his supermodel ex-girlfriends.

It gets much more difficult to ascertain a player's value when an impact teammate leaves or joins the team. In New Orleans, the Saints added such an impact player in Jeremy Shockey. How will this affect the value of Marques Colston? Let's get to crunching the numbers.

First, we have to know how our guys score their fantasy points. For WRs and TEs, it's all about targets (and more specifically, red zone targets):

The first thing that jumps out is how much of an upgrade Shockey is over what the TEs that the Saints have had over the past 2 years. Shockey alone has outperformed all New Orleans' TEs over that time.

Over those 2 years, both Colston and Shockey have seen a significant amount of their fantasy production coming from RZ targets, especially when it comes to TD production. This isn't surprising since both are big, strong targets down in the shadow of the goal posts. All of Shockey's TDs the last 2 years have come from the RZ. Fourteen of Colston's 19 - including 10 of 11 in 2007 - have come in the RZ.

Adding Shockey to the mix means that the Saints are adding an element they haven't had over the past 2 years - they now have duel RZ threats. In fact, it's not a hard argument to make that they have added a better RZ target then the one they had in Colston. And they didn't trade a 2nd and 5th round pick to not utilize their new threat down low. So, it would seem reasonable to conclude that Colston is going to have to share the ball with Shockey in the RZ.

This probably isn't great news for Colston owners. Looking back at the table, 74% of his TDs and 30% of his overall fantasy points have come in the RZ - and now we have another legit RZ threat taking his touches. It seems very likely that we will see a decrease in Colston's TD production, assuming Shockey is healthy and on the field.

Colston finished 8th among WRs in fantasy points last year. If he were to lose, say, only 3 TDs to Shockey, it would put him as a borderline top 12 WR. And that's before we even look at how Shockey could impact Colston's touches on the other 80 yards of the field.

Looking at recent history, Shockey has received an average of 7.5 targets a game. No other NO receiver has even come close to that rate, let alone a TE. And since the trade was basically brought about by Shockey being unhappy with his role with the Giants, it would seem unlikely that the Saints would give Shockey less looks then he has received in the past. Shockey's touches have to come from somewhere and it's likely that Colston (and Reggie Bush) will have to give up some of theirs to Shockey.

Overall, it seems reasonable that we are looking at a downturn for Colston, from a fantasy perspective. He is still an excellent player to have on your roster. But, realistically speaking, we probably can't expect a top 8 finish again. We are probably looking at somewhere in the 12-15 range among WRs, so draft accordingly. Let another owner pick him ahead of guys like Plaxico Burress or Steve Smith. With the WR depth out there this year, there is no reason to overpay for a risky pick like Colston.