Fool's Gold
Posted 12/24 by Marc Faletti, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Well, football friends, it's been another glorious year of fantasy football. As with all speculative analysis (stock market, betting lines, etc.), the ride can sometimes get bumpy, but isn't that why we play the game? If football followed the expected script all the time, we'd probably find it about as exciting as Days of Our Lives. Instead, as we head into the final week, take a moment to look over rosters filled with guys like Le'Ron McClain, Tashard Choice, Tyler Thigpen, and Antonio Bryant and marvel at the stories we never saw coming this year.
Of course, you don't pay Footballguys for the news that can't be predicted -- you pay for the truths that can be found but might not be obvious at first glance. Especially during the playoffs. So, with that in mind, let's look at the Week 16 performers who shouldn't expect to repeat their stat lines in the final week of the year:
Dominic Rhodes, RB, IND
Fool's Gold: 20 touches for 89 total yards and 1 TD
Beware all Colts (and Titans) in the final week. Tony Dungy has already announced that anyone who's hurting will likely sit in the meaningless matchup against Tennessee. He singled out Rhodes as one of the primary candidates for rest because of a slight rib problem, so don't expect him to help you like he has to this point. Chad Simpson should get the call. Marvin Harrison is also unlikely to play, and don't be surprised if every starter is out by halftime. Even Manning.
Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI
Fool's Gold: 26/46 for 230 yards
Donovan McNabb had another maddening, where-did-it-come-from horrible day of inaccurate throws and heavy breathing like he's out of shape. It almost seems (and I stress seems) like some days he's just hung over or something. His Week 16 junker fit the bill. But McNabb has a history of putting up stats against the Cowboys -- and bouncing back from his stinkers with excellent games.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
Fool's Gold: 24 rushes for 87 yards and 3 TDs
The Giants play like a different team when Jacobs and his hard-hitting style take the field. However, in a week 17 game that means nothing for them, we should expect to see little or no Jacobs. Even if he does suit up, it'll be against a Vikings team that's stout against the run even without Pat Williams. Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw are better bets if you need to start a Giant.
Brett Favre, QB, NYJ
Fool's Gold: 18-31 for 187 yards and 2 INTs
He looked awful in a must-win game. His Pro Bowl election is a farce. And sans the Arizona game from earlier in the year, he's thrown for more INTs than TDs on the year. But the Jets stunk up every game on the West Coast this season. Now, to close out the season, they play at home against a Dolphins team that can be passed on fairly easily. Favre hasn't been a quality fantasy QB this year but could help teams with starters taking the week off in the final game.
Le'Ron McClain, RB, BAL
Fool's Gold: 22 rushes for 139 yards and 1 TD
Let's be clear: he has excellent value against a bad Jags team with Baltimore gunning for the playoffs and the Jags thinking about Sandals Jamaica. But he warrants a spot here because of his fluky 82-yard TD run during which the Cowboys defense played like a bunch of quitters. This converted fullback shouldn't be able to outrace an entire team, even one stacked up close to the line like Dallas. McClain had an extremely ho-hum game prior to that late run, and because of it, his numbers from last week were the essence of Fool's Gold. Lucky for him he faces Jacksonville next.
Ted Ginn, Jr., WR, MIA
Fool's Gold: 1 rush for 31 yards and 1 TD, 4 catches for 44 yards
Ginn put up a top 10 performance in standard scoring leagues because of the end-around he took to the house. While he's shown real improvement and appears capable of developing into a complete wideout, the Dolphins seldom feature the same player two weeks in a row for their special plays. With everything on the line against the Jets, the Dolphins will probably find a way to highlight Patrick Cobbs again or something similarly surprising. Of all the NFL teams this year, Miami's created more of the surprise stories than any other, and because of that, Ginn is as likely to be a decoy as he is to get any big plays in the final week.
