Faceoff - RB Selvin Young, Denver Broncos

Posted 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Marc Faletti

I know, I know, that kooky Denver running situation's nearly impossible to figure out. Travis Henry may be gone, but Andre Hall's still hanging around and newcomers like Micheal "Healthy is a relative concept" Pittman and rookies Ryan Torain and Peyton Hillis are also angling for touches.

So what should you do? Invest in the one guy in Denver's backfield who's proven he can get it done: Selvin Young.

Shanahan says and does a lot of things. He's called Young a future starter in the league and also said he's not a feature back. And at some point, it'll seem like one of the other guys is emerging in camp. All of this is fine, because it only serves to drive Young's price down. Even fickle Shanahan will realize Selvin Young's his guy sooner rather than later.

As an undrafted rookie, Young was learning as he went. That didn't stop him from averaging 5.2 yards per rush and catching 35 passes (35!) in very limited action. Naysayers will point out that he dominated KC twice for a big chunk of his numbers, but go deeper and you'll see that he was a difference-maker against the best. Young had 99 yards on only 10 touches in week 4 against Indy. He had 120 total yards on 24 touches vs. the Packers 3 weeks later. And in the final game of the year, against the league's roughest, toughest run defense, Selvin Young ran 22 times for 87 yards against Minnesota. Still think Shanahan *really* believes Young's not a feature back?

Young won't score many goalline TDs, but neither does a guy like Brian Westbrook. Young's value comes from his potential for 2000 total yards and 50+ catches. And as long as the offense is functioning correctly, Young will find his way to a half-dozen touchdowns or so. Remember, Cutler was ailing last year and the team was in transition. The Broncos were 21st in scoring last season after averaging 9th in the league the previous 7 years. In other words, when they're back on track, there will be more TDs to go around in 2008.

RBs under Shanahan come with high upside, but some undeniable risk. Taking Young over sure things in the 1st four rounds isn't recommended, but if you can land him after that, he's a no-brainer.

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Selvin Young came out of nowhere as an undrafted free agent from the University of Texas to be the Broncos' most productive running back as a first year player. The 5'11", 215-pound back averaged over five yards per carry. He excelled in the Denver zone blocking system. This system makes some backs look better than their talent level would suggest. Selvin Young is actually a third-down, change of pace back packaged into a full time rusher's situation.

Selvin averaged only nine carries a game his rookie season. Of the fifteen games he played in as a rookie, Young only toted the ball 20 times in a given game on two occasions. Earlier this offseason, Coach Shanahan stated that he envisions Young as a 12-15 (tops) carry a game back. Last season illustrated why the coach feels this way. His yards per carry average says it all. In the first half of games (78 carries), Young averaged 6.4 YPC. In the second half of those same games (62 carries), he averaged a meager 3.6 YPC. If we just look at carries 1-10 of each game, the former Longhorn averaged 5.6 yards per carry. On carries 11-20, the average drops to 4.3. On the two carries he had over 20 in a game, Selvin averaged just 3.5 yards per carry.

In four years of college in Austin (including redshirting his third season), Young only had more than 100 carries once. This occurred in his senior season. Young was in a committee throughout his Longhorn career. Even in his last year at Texas, Selvin only averaged 11.5 carries a game. And in that year, Selvin Young had his lowest yards per carry average.

Yes, it looks as though Selvin Young might get a chance to carry the ball more times in 2007. But, let's remember that he is a player who has never carried the load and was seemingly always nicked up in college. It will not take long for the former Texas Longhorn to either get dinged up or prove he is really a change of pace back. This is the year to let someone else draft Selvin Young.