Faceoff - Which San Francisco QB?

Posted 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Alex Smith - by Anthony Borbely

Alex Smith has been a disappointment since being drafted first overall by the San Francisco 49ers in the 2005 NFL draft. He showed improvement in his second year, but last year, he took a giant step back. In his defense, he has had a different offensive coordinator in each of his three seasons, which is partially responsible for his inconsistency. The 2007 season was a disaster for Smith, and the 49ers had one of the worst offensive seasons in NFL history. The 49ers made a big move to rectify that by hiring Mike Martz to head up their offense.

Martz is a tremendous upgrade for the 49ers offense and his play calling usually leads to huge passing yards. A QB who plays under Martz is virtually assured of putting up big fantasy numbers. The tough part is trying to determine who will play QB for San Francisco. I think there are several reasons why the 49ers will start Smith over Shaun Hill or J.T. O'Sullivan.

• First, the 49ers drafted Smith first overall and paid him millions of dollars. They want to make 100% sure of his ability to be a viable NFL starting QB. If they start him and he fails, at least they will know for sure. If they started Hill or O'Sullivan, how would they know if Smith could do the job?
• Smith is very intelligent and that is important in running the highly complex Martz offense. A QB can have all the talent in the world, but in this offense, you must be mentally sharp. Reading defenses is a big part of being successful in this offense.
• There is little doubt that Smith is a better athlete than the other QBs on the roster. He can make all the throws. He can run and escape the pressure. Considering the limited pass protection in the Martz offense, Smith's ability to run is a plus.

The 49ers should put up some huge fantasy numbers regardless of who the QB is. Martz has never had an offense with fewer than 4200 passing yards. He has turned nondescript QBs like Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and Jon Kitna into 4000-yard passers. In the last five years, all QBs who have had over 3000 passing years have been top 20 fantasy QBs. The WRs are also much better this year.

Alex Smith is the most talented QB Martz has ever worked with and if the 49ers are smart, they will give him every opportunity to succeed. If he can't play, then he can't play. But considering the millions of dollars they paid Smith, one would think they would want to be certain. The only way they can be sure is if he plays. I fully expect Smith to start and if he does, he should be able to find his way into the top 20 QBs.

Shaun Hill - by Jason Wood

What's the old adage, "if you have three QBs you can't decide between, you probably don't have any?" On the surface, things don't look promising. The 49ers ranked dead last (32nd) in passing yards last year, as well as adjusted yards per attempt. Four quarterbacks combined for just 15 touchdowns and a meager 53.4% completion rate. "Franchise" passer and #1 overall pick Alex Smith managed to play only 7 games before being shut down for the season.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the train wreck. Shaun Hill, a 6'3", 226-pound clipboard holder got a chance to show his stuff in Weeks 14-16 and shocked the world. In three games, Hill completed 54 passes in 79 attempts (68.4%) for 501 yards with 5 TDs and just 1 interception.

Project those stats over a 16-game season, and you would have:

• 288 completions
• 421 attempts
• 2,672 yards
• 27 TDs
• 5 INTs

When you consider how woeful the 49ers were last year, how badly the play-calling was, how porous the offensive line was, and how limited the supporting cast was, Hill's numbers are almost shocking. Not surprisingly, Hill re-signed with the 49ers this offseason (3-year deal) recognizing a chance to compete for the starting job in 2008 against Smith and fellow journeyman J.T. O'Sullivan.

Expect Hill to win that battle. About the only reason anyone would argue for Alex Smith over Hill is pedigree. Smith is making huge $$$ and was the 1st overall pick. Hill is a 6-year veteran that went undrafted out of Maryland and then attempted his first professional in Week 14 last year. Lest you think I discount the importance of Smith's contract; I don't. Money talks in the NFL and all things being equal, Alex Smith will likely be the team's starter.

But all things AREN'T equal. Hill outperformed Smith last year, hands down. Hill is healthy while Smith is coming off shoulder surgery. Hill is playing for a job; Smith has tens of millions of guaranteed money regardless of his performance on the field. But here's the real kicker, MIKE MARTZ DOESN'T GIVE A DAMN ABOUT PEDIGREE. He starts the QB that best grasps and executes his playbook. Kurt Warner? Former bag boy. Marc Bulger? 6th round draft pick by the Saints before getting a starting gig under Martz. Jon Kitna? Journeyman. He plays the guys that fit the system. In Hill, I see a big guy with a quick release and a willingness to spread the ball around. As long as he looks the part in camp, I believe Martz will make him the starter, and let the 49ers ownership and GM come to terms with the lost investment they've made in Alex Smith.