Faceoff - Drafting Quarterbacks

Posted 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Go For a Stud - by Jeff Pasquino

The old theory of waiting on drafting your first quarterback has always had its drawbacks, but I believe that the time has come to depart from this concept. You might think that this is a knee jerk reaction to Tom Brady's studly performance last year, but that is only part of the story. It used to be that you could literally be the last fantasy team owner to pick up your starting QB for the season and you would not be very far behind the rest of the league. Sometimes you can even get lucky and grab a Top 5 or Top 3 quarterback as the 12th man off the draftboard and never miss a beat. Well, that's no longer the truth.

Once you start walking down the list of stud quarterbacks -- guys who can put up big numbers and carry your team to fantasy victories, week after week -- the length of that list is nowhere near as long as in previous years. Sure you have Brady and Peyton Manning, but after Drew Brees, exactly how many quarterbacks are left without question marks? Carson Palmer had a rough time of it closing the season (only five touchdowns in his last five starts, including two zero-TD and two one-TD games). Tony Romo is still relatively unproven,and Derek Anderson is an even bigger risk. Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb are not certainties for fantasy dominance either. Only Ben Roethlisberger looks to be a safe bet in the rest of the Top 10 this year.

Those who want to take two quarterbacks in the middle part of your fantasy draft will say that you can grab two mid-grade QB s and just play weekly matchups. Combining the right two quarterbacks can give you elite production, and I don't disagree with that idea. In practice, however, I think it is much harder to do on a weekly basis. Try and decide each week if your quarterback by committee (QBBC) decision is an easy one and that you always know which QB will outperform your other guy. It is not as easy as it sounds at all.

So ask yourself this question -- in a copycat league like the NFL where four quarterbacks threw for 30+ touchdowns last year and one set the mark at 50, do you want to rely on either a committee approach or on a single Top 10 QB who has not proven himself as an elite talent year after year? Go ahead and be my guest with the QBBC approach, but understand that you are likely playing with fire. Even casual gamblers know that on a given coinflip they can lose half of the time, and this feels like what the QBBC approach offers you this year. For my fantasy teams, I want a proven QB to build a team around and not have to sweat that quarterback decision week after week. Also remember that there were a record number of starting quarterbacks last year, due mostly in part to injuries. Rolling the dice that not just one but two of your "starting" quarterbacks lasts all season is a huge risk.

So there you have it -- the QBBC approach costs you an elite talent and performance, a roster spot and increases the likelihood that an injury will affect your starting lineup. Even if both quarterbacks stay upright all year, it is still close to a 50-50 proposition as to which one is the correct play in your weekly lineup decisions. For me, I'll take a Top 3 QB or an elite veteran talent and take a spot starter late in my draft if at all. That roster spot may prove to be more valuable in picking up a possible breakout WR or RB and I'd rather do that than waste it in my draft on QB13-16 talent. All things considered, give me the stud QB.

Take a Committee - by Mark Wimer

This year a lot of people are considering expending a high (first 6 rounds) draft pick on a marquee quarterback - the smashing success of Tom Brady last season (398/578 for 4806 yards, 50 TDs and 8 interceptions) during his record-breaking campaign propelled a lot of Brady owners to fantasy championships. It has also propelled Brady into the top ranks of fantasy prospects on many overall draft boards. However, hitting a record-breaking season with any fantasy player is sort of like calling the top of the stock market - it happens, but not very often. If your stud QB bombs, your fantasy team will suffer.

One great way to mitigate your downside risk at the QB position and to maximize your fantasy points is to utilize the quarter-back-by-committee approach. Depending on your league's roster limits, you might choose to go with a 2-QB or a 3-QB rotation - in either case, you're likely to almost equal (and even outscore some of) the "Stud"-QB stables in your league. And added bonus is that if one of your starters goes down, you won't have to rush to the waiver wire and choose between Alex Smith or Kyle Orton as your replacement of (for example) Peyton Manning.

Our own Clayton Gray has written 2 excellent articles on the quarterback-by-committee approach, projecting many different possible combinations of 2-QB committees and 3-QBcommittees. I recommend the entirety of both articles to your attention. In a nutshell, here's what he found:

When utilizing a 2-QB committee (defined as a combination of any 2 QBs selected outside the first 6 rounds (72 picks) of a 12-team draft), there are 15 different 2-man committees that project to fall between Stud QB4 (Tony Romo - 334 fantasy points projected) and Stud QB 6 (Ben Roethlisberger - 315.2 fantasy points projected). The various combinations check in over a range of 21.4 fantasy points, beginning with a committee of David Garrard/Matt Schaub that projects to 327.4 fantasy points (#5 overall between Romo and Stud QB 5 Donovan McNabb at #6 overall) down to a committee of Jake Delhomme and Matt Schaub (316 fantasy points) at 20th overall (right before stud QB #6, #21 overall).

When utilizing a 3-QB committee (defined as a combination of any 3 QBs selected outside the first 10 rounds (120 picks) of a 12-team draft), there are 12 different 3-man committees that project to fall between Stud QB6 (Ben Roethlisberger, 315.2 fantasy points) and Stud QB8 (Matt Hasselbeck, 304.4 fantasy points). The various combinations check in over a range of 10.8 fantasy points, beginning with a committee of Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jeff Garcia that projects to 314.3 fantasy points (#7 overall just after Roethlisberger) and ending with a committee of Matt Leinart, Jeff Garcia and JaMarcus Russell at a projection of 304.5 fantasy points (#19 overall, before Hasselbeck at #20 overall).

In short, the best strategy for fantasy owners who are willing to actively manage a stable of quarterbacks is the quarterback by committee approach. You'll have more insurance in case of injury; more opportunity to maximize fantasy points on any given week (even Tom Brady or Peyton Manning have off weeks when facing quality defenses or when playing in poor weather during November/December); and you'll field better quality players at the other key fantasy positions of running back and wide receiver.