Faceoff - QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Posted 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Clayton Gray

Matt Schaub has high side written all over him. Despite starting only 11 games in 2007, Schaub finished as the #23 fantasy QB. He is a young signal-caller that will improve with increased game action. He has a solid receiving corps that is also improving.

A quick glance at Schaub's 2007 numbers reveals 2241 yards, nine TDs and nine INTs in only 11 starts for a per-game average of just over 200 yards and just under one TD and one INT. These numbers look a little pedestrian, but they are also a bit inaccurate. While Schaub started 11 games, he missed large parts of three of them. In the remaining eight games, Schaub threw for 2107 yards, nine TDs and seven INTs. This averages out to 263 yards, just over one TD and under one INT per game. On a fantasy-points-per-game basis, he scored just fewer than 17, which was better than guys like Jay Cutler and Jon Kitna. Schaub's numbers are even more impressive when you consider that he and Andre Johnson were on the field together for only three games last season.

Speaking of Johnson, it is always nice to have a fantasy QB that is throwing to an elite WR. And make no mistake, Johnson is an elite WR. In only nine games, he gained 851 yards and scored eight TDs on 60 receptions in 2007. On a PPG basis, Johnson finished the season as the #3 fantasy WR (behind only Randy Moss and Terrell Owens). Despite missing almost half the season, Johnson surpassed the 100-yard mark four times and was held below 70 yards only once, and he found the endzone in all but two of his games. Simply put - the dude is a stud.

Another nice target for Schaub is TE Owen Daniels. While not ultra-athletic like Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis, Daniels makes for a nice target and has the look of a perennial 50- to 70-catch guy for the next half-decade at least. Rounding out the receiving corps are guys like Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, and Jacoby Jones. While they aren't keeping opposing defensive coordinators too worried, those three youngsters are perfectly capable WRs and allow the Houston passing game to be more than just a one- or two-man show.

Going back to Schaub for a bit, there is ample evidence that he will improve this season. There is the common-sense approach that a young QB will get better in his second season as a starter. However, if we didn't just know that fact, we can also back it up with stats. According to stat-run done by my good buddy Chase Stuart, there have been 44 QBs since 1993 that started at least eight games in their first season as a starting QB and then started at least eight games in their second season as a starting QB. Here are the average stats of these 44 QBs in their first and second seasons:

• Games Started - 13.34 to 13.86
• Passing Yards - 2766 to 3006
• Passing TDs - 16.5 to 17.8
• INTs - 13.7 to 13.5
• Fantasy Points - 223 to 238

As you can see, QBs generally make progress in their second season at the helm. Schaub should as well.

The best part about drafting Matt Schaub is that he will be a bargain. Almost no one has him in their top 12, and his current average ranking is #19, while his ADP is 108. Your draft strategy should be as follows: 1) take Schaub when 12 to 14 QBs are off the board, and 2) take Sage Rosenfels at the bottom of your draft. This will allow you to snag a top 10 QB.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

Matt Schaub made the Falcons deeply regret their decision to trade him away after the 2006 season, posting a 66.4 completion percentage during his 11 appearances for the Texans (192/289 for 2241 yards, 9 TDs and 9 interceptions), while helping the team reach .500 for the first time in franchise history. When he was on the field, Schaub moved the team fairly well, but he did hit a doldrums during weeks 5-8 (0 TDs and 4 interceptions thrown during that 4 week span), he missed time due to various injuries, and he was lost after week 13 due to a dislocated left shoulder. He had surgery on the shoulder during the offseason, but did participate in the early-May minicamp, during which coach Gary Kubiak commented "As for Matt, since we're in shorts, he'll be able to do everything. If we were in pads (hitting), I'd hold him out."

So, entering 2008 we have a quarterback who looks promising, but who is working his shoulder/torso back into condition. With capable backup Sage Rosenfels (154/240 for 1684 yards, 15 TDs and 12 interceptions over 10 games of action last year) waiting in the wings to stampede in, the Texans won't risk Schaub until he's back to 100% healthy. It remains to be seen if Schaub will be ready for contact at the start of training camp, leaving room for concern about his hold on the top job in Houston. Assuming no quarterback controversy arises, Schaub still has a long way to go before he proves himself to be a durable, dependable fantasy starter.

Another factor in play entering 2008 is that the team would like to run a more balanced offense, with a greater emphasis on rushing the ball. That was something they wanted to do last year, too, but Ahman Green's knee woes led to a situation where the team only attempted 417 carries (22nd in the NFL) vs. 529 passes (19th in the league). If the Texans are able to stick to their blueprint this year, the Texans' QBs could once again land in the middle of the NFL pack in passing attempts - this just doesn't look like an offense that is going to generate a 4000+ yard passer when things are proceeding according to the team's intentions.

One other item that works against the Texans' offense in general - the team plays in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL, with outstanding defenses from top to bottom in Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee. That's 6 games a year that are guaranteed to be knock-down, drag-out fights. Also, the Texans start the season with a visit to the Steelers and then host the Ravens, followed by trips to Tennessee and to Jacksonville - that looks like an ugly way to start off the 2008 season, folks. It would be no surprise to see Schaub come out of the gates slowly considering that slate of matchups. Schaub might be worth a look as your team's backup QB, or as a guy to start when matchups are favorable in a QB rotation, but don't expect consistent starter's numbers from him during 2008 and you won't be disappointed.