Faceoff - QB JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders

Posted 6/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

As the No. 1 overall pick of the 2007 draft, JaMarcus Russell was drafted to be the future of the franchise. He will start for the entire season, barring injury. That alone puts him ahead of a reasonable percentage of quarterbacks that fantasy owners will be considering as their backup(s). Without naming every team in the NFL with a shaky quarterback situation, roughly one quarter to one third of teams have an open position or a starter on thin ice. Some of these players may have more upside than Russell should they win their roles, but if they don't you are filling a spot on your roster with a non starter.

Those with patience and a quality starter can sit JaMarcus Russell while he gathers his feet in the first few weeks of the season with the expectation that at some stage Russell will have developed into borderline starter status. Think that's an exaggeration? In the last 10 years every quarterback drafted in the first half of the first round, the elite prospects of college football, has made the Top 20 fantasy quarterbacks in his 2nd season in the NFL under 2 simple criteria:

1. He was starting at the beginning of his 2nd season
2. He played more than 12 games.

Ten quarterbacks have fit this standard:

• Peyton Manning 1999 (4th)
• Donovan McNabb 2000 (5th)
• Daunte Culpepper 2000 (1st)
• Michael Vick 2002 (3rd)
• Joey Harrington 2003 (19th)
• Byron Leftwich 2004 (17th)
• Eli Manning 2005 (5th)
• Alex Smith 2006 (19th)
• Vince Young 2007 (19th)
• Jay Cutler 2007 (11th)

Nine others did not fit the criteria:

• Tim Couch 2000 (Injury)
• Cade McNown 2000 (Injury)
• David Carr 2003 (Injury)
• Carson Palmer 2004 (Didn't start)
• Ben Roethlisberger 2005 (Missed 4 through injury, but still ranked 17th)
• Philip Rivers 2005 (Didn't start)
• Matt Leinart 2007 (Injury)

That leaves 2 guys who were benched for their awful play, Akili Smith & Ryan Leaf.

Is JaMarcus Russell on a par with 2 of the biggest busts in NFL history, Akili Smith & Ryan Leaf? Does he have an injury history? Russell could be a bust of epic proportions, but the odds are stacked in his favor. Oakland has made significant improvements to their offence drafting Darren McFadden and signing Javon Walker, twice a top 10 fantasy receiver. There is depth at Running Back and solid receivers to complement Walker, especially highly promising 2nd year Tight End Zach Miller. Russell has a huge arm, is accurate and has the size to get numerous rushing TDs. In his limited NFL action to date he has resisted the temptation to take off at the first sign of trouble, indicating his development as a pocket passer will be paramount. He will throw more than his fair share of interceptions, but with speedy receivers and a cannon arm, expect some lengthy TDs as well. Don't expect a Daunte Culpepper like 2nd season, but JaMarcus Russell has more than enough ability to be a fantasy option during the 2008 season.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

JaMarcus Russell is still on the steep part of the NFL learning curve - with only 1 NFL start under his belt after last season (he posted 23/31 for 224 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the season finale vs. San Diego in his lone start last season), Russell still has many snaps to go before he has enough experience to be called a "veteran". Over the final four weeks of 2007, Russell posted 36/66 for 373 yards, 2 TDs and 4 interceptions in mostly part-time duty. It takes more time and experience than Russell has amassed to adjust to the speed of the NFL game.

Another reason to be unexcited about Russell's prospects for 2008 - his WR corps has been reshuffled and doesn't look like a top-flight unit. The Raiders paid a king's ransom to sign Javon Walker as the team's headliner at wide receiver. Walker (who missed a large part of 2007 due to a lingering knee injury problem) has reported to offseason team activities in poor shape and looks unmotivated, to say the least. Behind Walker, the team has Ron Curry - his best season in fantasy terms so far during a 5 year career came in 2004, when he snagged 50/679/6 and finished 39th among all fantasy WRs. Last year, Curry posted 55/717/4 over 16 games. Drew Carter, who relocated to Oakland after 3 tepid seasons in Carolina (his best showing was last year, with 38/517/4 out of 75 chances), is slated to be the team's #3 WR. Zach Miller looks promising at the TE position, but he isn't Tony Gonzalez just yet.

Additionally, the Raiders' offense is slanted towards the running game - they were 4th in the NFL in rushing attempts last season and 6th in the NFL in rushing yards, while residing at 29th in the NFL in passing attempts and 31st in passing yardage. Even if we assume that Russell will see more of the play book during his second season in the league, the team is likely to lean on the rushing game heavily while Russell continues to learn on the job. I would be surprised to see Russell end up above the middle of the NFL pack in passing attempts this season - the team's reliance on the running game is going to put a low ceiling on Russell's upside potential during 2008.

JaMarcus Russell may lead dynasty fantasy teams to the league championship in years to come, but during 2008 he's strictly back-up QB material in fantasy terms.