Faceoff - QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted 6/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Cecil Lammey

To throw to Chad, or not to throw to Chad, that is the question in Cincinnati. Carson Palmer had a down year by his standards, and there are some in fantasy circles that are souring on the former #1 overall pick. He had a career high in passing attempts, however he also threw more interceptions than he ever had in a season, and he threw for his lowest TD total. Even in a down year Carson still ended the season as the #9 fantasy QB. For a guy that usually resides as a top 5 QB it was somewhat of a surprise. Let Carson fall to you in your fantasy draft, scoop him up, and laugh at all your friends as Carson regains his top 5 status.

There are very few locks in football, but you can pretty much lock Carson in for over 4,000 yards passing and over 25 TDs. Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh are still among the best WRs in the game, and perhaps Chad will start running the correct routes. Clearly the "Ocho Cinco" persona just doesn't work -- in more ways than one. Chad has stated that he will be more focused, which in turn only helps Carson. Housh is solid, and may be the Bengals leading receiver in 2008. Doubters may look at the loss of Chris Henry as a strike against Palmer. Well, it's much easier to be on the same page as your receivers when they aren't suspended every time you turn around. Exit Henry, and enter Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell. Simpson is a big target like Henry (minus the freakish athleticism) and Caldwell is the scrappy possession receiver with big play capabilities. All signs are pointing to Carson Palmer being in the top tier of QBs at the end of the season, and with his draft stock falling it means even greater value for the savvy owner.

Downside - by Maurile Tremblay

I have few reservations about Palmer's skills as an NFL quarterback. His arm strength, accuracy, intelligence, leadership -- all are first-rate.

But he is overrated this season as a fantasy quarterback.

Fantasy owners will fondly remember Palmer's 2005 season, when he threw 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and was the #1 fantasy QB.

Since then, however, he's thrown fewer TDs and more INTs in each successive season. It's not a favorable trend. This is not the same Bengal team that averaged over 26 points a game in 2005, that went 11-5 and made the playoffs. The Bengals have been in a backslide since that time. They had a losing record last year; Marv Lewis may be on the hot seat; Chris Henry is gone; Chad Johnson is unhappy; Rudi Johnson played poorly last year and is returning from injury.

To be sure, Palmer wasn't in a great situation last year either, and he still finished as the 9th best fantasy quarterback. Top ten isn't bad, right? But I contend that, not only is his situation worse this year than it was last year, but that his stats from last year were somewhat inflated: Palmer was the only QB in the league who took every offensive snap of every game.

Among quarterbacks who played in at least nine games, Palmer finished #9 in total points, but was #11 in points per game, and #16 in points per play (not counting handoffs). Palmer also faced an easier-than-average schedule last year.

So if Palmer was the #9 fantasy QB last year with an easier-than-average schedule, and a far above-average percentage of snaps taken, how should we project him this year? He loses one of the best guards in the league in Eric Steinbach; he loses a proven, effective red-zone target in Chris Henry; Chad Johnson seems to become more of a distraction every season . . . .

Is Carson Palmer still a top ten fantasy QB? Maybe.

Is he top five? Not in my book.