Faceoff - QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted 6/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

David Garrard burst onto the scene last year after the coaching staff chose him over Byron Leftwich. It turned out to be a keen decision. In only twelve games, the Jacksonville starting passer was able to finish as QB16. It is always dangerous to use the numbers in the twelve games and project them over a full season. But, it is not take a stretch of the imagination to believe that Garrard can be a top ten fantasy passer. Also, it is reasonable to assume a natural development given an entire offseason getting the reps of a starter. He, like many inexperienced quarterbacks, will improve in year two of starting.

The Jaguars have upgraded the receiver position this offseason with the signings of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson. Any improvement in the development of Reggie Williams and Marcedes Lewis, will give Garrard much better outlets for his passes. The acquisition of Porter allows the veteran Dennis Northcutt to move to his natural position of slot receiver. The starting lineup will feature Porter, Williams, Northcutt, and Lewis at tight end. This is a major upgrade over last season when Ernest Wilford and Matt Jones were in the starting lineup. Also, getting youngster Mike Walker back from injury will help the depth.

The 30 year old from East Carolina enjoyed a great season as illustrated by his 18/3 TD/Interception ratio and 7.7 yards per pass attempt average. In the twelve games Garrard started, he only once had fewer than 13.8 fantasy points and that was when he left the game in the second quarter with injury. But, in the remaining games, the former backup had eight games with at least 20 fantasy points, including seven of the last eight.

Looking ahead to 2008, it is easy to see why many have Garrard as a fantasy sleeper. He leads an offense led by a very good running back tandem that catch the ball well, and upgraded receivers. The Jacksonville Jaguars utilize a ball-control offense that does not put Garrard in spots to make mistakes. He is allowed to take what the defense offers. In every game except the one he left early, Garrard scored at least one touchdown, with seven games at least two scores.

Even after the solid season in 2007, Garrard is being drafted as a backup fantasy quarterback, QB13 overall. He offers supreme value at that spot. Garrard is a consistent fantasy player who will score good fantasy points every week. He may not be able to duplicate the TD/Int ratio of 2007, but the improved weapons should help the Jaguar passer score even more fantasy points. Garrard is a good bet to finish the 2008 season as a top ten quarterback with an outside chance at the top five.

Downside - by Jeff Pasquino

David Garrard is a hot commodity this season, but let's take a hard look at why. He was the #16 QB last year but only started 12 games. While some look at this and project him to be a Top 10 QB if he gets 15 or 16 starts, what happens if he starts 12 or fewer? Garrard is 30 years old and has only been a full-time starter for one year. He has never appeared in more than 12 games in a season (11 in 2006, and only 17 in four seasons prior), some due to health and some due to him not being worthy of being the starter.

Garrard is not a game-breaker type of field general. His receivers leave a lot to be desired, as he has not had a 1,000 yard wideout since Jimmy Smith back in 2005. His projected starters are Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams, neither of which will likely be anywhere close to Honolulu next February. Garrard also had an anomalously low interception ratio in the regular season (3 INTs in 325 attempts, less than 1%), which cannot continue over the long haul. Looking at his two postseason games last year shows that the laws of probability do catch up with him, as he threw three interceptions in just two games on 54 attempts.

Another concern regarding Garrard has to be Jacksonville's offensive philosophy. The Jaguars are hardly a pass-happy, air it out kind of team. With two Top 20 RBs from last year in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, it is not surprising that the ground game is the preferred method of moving the ball. Add in that the defense was one of the better ones in the league last year and should be again in 2008 and you can understand why Garrard is the least of anyone's concerns -- which is not a good thing for fantasy owners. The last thing you want for your fantasy QB is to have a starting quarterback who is an offensive afterthought.

When you think of Garrard, you think of comfortable adjectives to describe him -- stable, reliable, conservative -- not exactly a guy who will go out there and win you some fantasy matchups. In weeks where your fantasy team is a strong favorite and you are looking for a bye week filler or a stable performance at QB, Garrard can be your guy. If you want someone who can outperform his draft spot and may land in the Top 10 for quarterbacks, you may want to go for another QB.