Faceoff - QB Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted 6/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Jeff Garcia is a cagy veteran who went to the Pro Bowl last year despite only playing in 13 games, producing 209/327 for 2440 yards, 13 TDs and 4 interceptions (and a berth in the playoffs). He's a great fit for coach Gruden's offense, and will benefit from now having one year in the Tampa offense under his belt. Over his last 21 games, he's thrown a mere 6 interceptions vs. 23 TDs (with Philly in '06 and Tampa in '07), making him especially attractive in fantasy leagues where interceptions are punished harshly. From week 5 until week 16, Garcia threw for at least 1 TD each game he appeared in except one (a shortened appearance vs. Washington in week 12) - once he was fully up to speed in Tampa's system, Garcia was reliably productive from week to week.

WRs Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard and TE Alex Smith are the primary pass catchers in Tampa right now, with little in the way of quality depth behind Galloway and Hilliard - the team could be in trouble if they lose one or both of their aged starting wideouts, but that could be said for many teams in the league. Galloway has only missed 1 game in the last 3 years, while Hilliard has been similarly durable (47 of the last 48 possible games played) - they may be old, but Tampa's starting wide receivers are tough.

I expect Garcia to play well from the starting gun this year - he's a great selection for QB2 on your fantasy roster, a solid guy who will fill in capably on the bye week or when your QB1 has a bad matchup due to opposing defense or horrid weather conditions (the Tampa Bay area is pretty nice in November/December compared to, say, Green Bay Wisconsin). The warm weather venue and rabid home-field crowd in Raymond James Stadium makes for a good environment for Garcia and company. There are younger guys playing QB in the NFL, for sure, but not many that are a better pro QB.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

Jeff Garcia had 2440 yards passing, 13 TDs and 4 INTs in only 13 games last year. Those are fairly pedestrian numbers, however he finished as the 18th ranked QB. Those are top 20 numbers for a fantasy QB? According to the stats they are. However a closer look shows a distinct drop off in fantasy points between the 16th ranked QB (David Garrard 234 FP) and the 17th ranked QB (Jason Campbell 198 FP). Garcia finished just after Campbell registering 197 FP, which is 37 points less than Garrard, who was ranked only two slots higher.

One other mention about Garcia's 18th ranking. In the previous six years, dating back to 2001, Jeff Garcia's 197 fantasy points that he received in 2007 would average out as the 22nd best QB. In other words, his 2007 top 20 ranking is an anomaly squashed by data from recent seasons.

Garcia is a good QB3, but he is a borderline QB2

• He has not had more than 3000 yards passing in a season since 2002, with the 49ers. This was also the last year he had more than 20 TD passes in a season and the last time he played all 16 games. In his last four seasons, he has only averaged 9.5 games.
• In 13 games last year, Garcia had only five games with more than 200 yards passing. He may be a serviceable NFL QB, but that's not great numbers fantasy-wise. 13 TD passes in 13 games is nothing to get excited about.
• He is 38 years old and is debating retiring. Clearly his best games are behind him. Last year may have been one last swan song in what was a very fulfilling career.
• Backup QB Luke McCown has looked good in off season workouts. Last year, in just four games of real work, he averaged 250 yards passing with 5 TD passes. In those four games, McCown's averaged 19.9 FP/game compared to Garcia's 15.1.

OK, but Jeff Garcia's 7.5 yards per attempt in 2007 was ninth best in the league - that is something you can't ignore. Guess what Luke McCown's yards per attempt was? Yep, 7.3 Not too shabby.

It looks like Garcia will dodge retirement for at least one more year and start at QB for the Bucs, but do not be surprised to see Jon Gruden make a move to McCown at some point during the year. Garcia may be young at heart, but injuries and wear and tear will play a role at some point this season. Gruden also has veteran Brian Griese and rookie pick Josh Johnson waiting in the wings - and I haven't even mentioned Chris Simms, but that's another story altogether.

Bottom line

Jeff Garcia is a good option to produce QB3 numbers, but to rely on him as your QB2 is risky. I will be shocked if Jeff Garcia finishes in the QB top 20 again this season. There are too many variables and reasons to think otherwise.