Faceoff - WR Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Marc Levin

Joey Galloway's current ADP is WR 31, 82nd overall (or, late 7th round). At that draft position, Galloway is all upside. Four of five FBG staff members project Galloway to finish with an average of 133 fantasy points. That production would have made him the WR22 last year. Moreover, Galloway has three straight top-24 WR finishes. Absolutely nothing has changed in Galloway's situation in Tampa Bay. Therefore, we can reasonably expect his fantasy floor to equal the WR24.

Plus, if Galloway is able to stay healthy this year and catch two or three more TDs, he could perform as a top-15 WR or better. One thing we can be fairly sure of is that, if he finishes 16 games this year, he will exceed his WR31 draft position. Unless you regularly prognosticate injuries (I don't), Galloway is one of the best values at WR on draft day.

Let us put this simply: talent plus opportunity equals production. Talent: there is no change to Galloway's talent level; he is a known commodity. While his ability to put up top-5 seasons may reasonably be in question, his ability to consistently produce starting quality fantasy receiver numbers is beyond question. He is easily the Buccaneers' most talented receiver. 37 or not, any receiver who averages 17.8 YPC against cornerback 15 years his junior still has "it."

Opportunity: there are no changes to personnel or scheme that will interfere with Galloway receiving 125 or more targets this year. Galloway witnesses the return of Brian Griese as a backup QB -- Griese was partially responsible for Galloway's #5 fantasy season in 2005. Galloway has proclaimed himself 100 percent recovered from the shoulder injury that inhibited him late in the 2007 season. While Galloway's injury history should remain a concern, such concerns are why you can get Galloway so late in most drafts. Galloway's opportunity in 2008 is better than it was in 2007. Same talent as 2007 plus better opportunity than in 2007 equals better production in 2008 than 2007.

So, let's put the nail in the coffin of my friend arguing a low side for Galloway -- the floor. Find me a WR near Galloway's ADP -- or a player at any position in the 7th round or later - with a higher floor than Galloway. Don't worry, I'll wait. That is why Galloway is all high side. His worse case scenario (barring season ending injury, of course) is a low-grade WR2 for your squad. His best case scenario, on the other hand, is as a top-12 WR. And all this can be yours for a low, low price outside the top-24 WRs. It's not a bargain drafting Galloway; it's a steal.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

Every year I am proven wrong thinking that Joey Galloway is finally fading away as a productive fantasy WR. For me, the main factor regarding my interest in Joey Galloway is his age (he will be 37 in November, 2008). In the last three years Galloway's numbers have decreased in every major category. As a result, he is no longer considered a WR1 or WR2 among fantasy circles. But, is he worthy of WR3 status? WR4? Let's examine this further.

Joey Galloway's numbers last three years (oldest to most recent - 2005, 2006, 2007)

• Targets: 152, 142, 98 (35.6% drop in 2007 vs. 2005)
• Receptions: 83, 62, 57 (31.4% drop in 2007 vs. 2005)
• Receiving yards: 1287, 1057, 1014 (21.3% drop in 2007 vs. 2005)
• Percentage of team's passing yards: 40, 35, 28 (30% drop in 2007 vs. 2005)
• 100-yard games: 4, 4, 3
• 15 or more FP in a game: 6, 5, 4
• Games with 5 recs or more: 11, 5, 6
• Games with 6 recs or more: 6, 3, 3
• Receiving TDs: 10, 7, 6
• Fantasy rank: 5, 15, 21
• Games played: 16, 16, 15
• QB leader in passing yards for TB: C. Simms, B. Gradkowski, J. Garcia

Average FP/gm since 2000

• Veteran WRs 35 yrs old: 7.71 - Average WR rank late 20s
• Veteran WRs 36 yrs old: 6.05 - Average WR rank early 40s
• Veteran WRs 37 yrs old: 3.80 - Average WR rank early 70s
• Veteran WRs 38+ yrs old: 4.52 - Average WR rank mid 60s

It's been mentioned that Joey Galloway doesn't necessarily have a high ceiling this year, but a high floor, meaning the worst he can do is really not that bad. According to my calculations, statistics and revealed trends, his floor is not looking so good after all. At best, Galloway is looking at a ranking no higher than 20th, but he could finish somewhere closer to 40th. The 40th ranked WR since 2000 has averaged 57 recs, 776 yards, 4 TDs, 99 FP. Galloway's high yards per reception tendency (15.8 career) raises his value more than the average WR, but that doesn't exclude him from falling out of favor.

The main argument surrounding Joey Galloway is his age, but if he's going to be the WR1 for the Bucs, he'll be the first option in the passing game. If Galloway isn't the guy, then who is? Tampa's corps of WRs is not great. Ike Hilliard, Michael Clayton, Maurice Stovall and Antonio Bryant are the likely candidates to gain yards if Galloway somehow fades, falters or gets injured.

In the end it comes down to age & history vs. Galloway's place on the team plus his ability. Which one wins out? Your answer to that reveals when you should draft Galloway. Will he finish higher than WR31? Maybe, maybe not. His ADP neighbors (Cotchery, K. Curtis, Berrian and Anthony Gonzalez) appear to be better bets with maybe the exception of Bernard Berrian. When it comes time to select a WR3 in the 7th or 8th round, don't overlook some of the WRs that have greater potential with less risk.