Faceoff - WR Jabar Gaffney, New England Patriots

Posted 7/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

In 2007, Jabar Gaffney did not start to get consistent pass targets until midseason. Donte` Stallworth had been the starting wide receiver opposite Randy Moss, but Gaffney outplayed the veteran speedster. The former Florida Gator played well through a stretch late in the season. Stallworth has now departed New England for the Cleveland Browns. This leaves just Gaffney and youngster Chad Jackson to compete for the starting job. The Patriots "want" Jackson to win the job, but he has failed to come close to expectations in his first two seasons.

The starting receiver job that is up for grabs is really the third option in the passing game behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Tight end Ben Watson should be back from injury, at least for a while. If there is so much competition for pass targets, is there any upside to taking the former Houston Texan? Yes, there is plenty of potential. Last year, only four Patriot receivers caught passes: Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Gaffney. If Gaffney and Chad Jackson are competing for the WR3, we can easily see the total amount of production available by adding the totals of Stallworth and Gaffney. There are no other receivers on the roster to steal catches, so one will be the WR3 and one WR4, assuming both are healthy. In 2007, Gaffney and Stallworth combined for 125 pass targets, 82 receptions, 1,146 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. This should be a good estimate of the numbers Gaffney and Jackson are competing to garner. With the frequency and severity that Chad Jackson has been injured in both seasons as a pro, it is not reasonable to expect that he will play all 16 games after playing so few to begin his career. Gaffney has earned the trust of Tom Brady and offers a clutch receiving option.

Even though it seems as though Gaffney has been around forever, he is still just 28 years old. The former second round pick of the Houston Texans has been durable throughout his career, playing all 16 games in five of six seasons. He has made some big plays for New England. In the last 17 games Gaffney has caught a pass, he has scored in eight of those contests. Chad Jackson is a good athlete with potential, but has not been durable. In addition, he has not progressed to the degree most had hoped. It is interesting that both receivers competing for this job are former Florida Gators drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft.

Gaffney is being drafted as the 49th receiver off of the board, and player 141 overall. As a WR5 for your fantasy team, Gaffney offers a lot of potential at a reasonable price. For a late 12th round pick, fantasy owners have a chance to get a pass catcher with WR3 upside. This is about all you can ask for from a 12th round pick. He is in a great situation and plays with a great quarterback. If there was an injury to Moss or Welker, Gaffney could actually have 75 receptions and over 1,000 receiving yards. There is upside to this draft pick. Even though the Patriot brass would like Jackson to succeed so the 2nd round pick would not be a waste, Gaffney has a much better chance of being a fantasy factor in 2008.

Downside - by David Yudkin

Gaffney enters his third season with the Patriots and in many ways New England is happy with their inexpensive addition. He's made several key TD receptions in big games that often made Sports Center game highlights. On the surface and on paper, he appears to be in line to be an every down player this year, but that is mostly an illusion.

Gaffney has prospered in isolated games and situations due to the firepower of the Patriots offense. A review of his big plays would showcase the fact that he was brought in as an extra receiver that defenses paid less attention to, and Brady found him at the opportune time that resulted in an important touchdown.

I do not believe that the Patriots view him as an every down receiver and potential difference maker. On the depth chart and in training camp, it may appear that Gaffney will take over for departed Donte Stallworth, but Gaffney lacks the explosiveness and ability to break free to be a full-time starter.

Since Gaffney's better moments get plastered on television, people may not be aware that in 32 regular and post season games, Gaffney has totaled a very pedestrian 72 receptions, 873 receiving yards, and nine TD. Cut those totals in half, and that would be a typical season for what to expect from Gaffney over a 16-games season (roughly 66 fantasy points in a 0 PPR system).

I fully expect oft-injured Chad Jackson to replace Stallworth, as Jackson's game rivals Stallworth's in terms of speed and the ability to get open. Jackson has been receiving rave reviews in training camp, and I project he'll be the one lining up opposite Randy Moss either to begin the season or shortly thereafter (with Wes Wleker again manning the slot).

Given that Gaffney's ADP has him as the #49 receiver and Jackson as the #81 receiver, Gaffney seems like the wrong guy to have in this situation. Last year's 49th ranked receiver scored 88 fantasy points--a good deal more than the extrapolated 66 points per season Gaffney has produced so far in New England.