Faceoff - RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Posted 6/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

There is a strong buzz in the air surrounding Bears rookie RB second round pick, Matt Forte. The Forte hype was prevalent before the Bears released incumbent RB Cedric Benson, who could not stay away from trouble. The release of Cedric Benson opens the door for Forte who is listed at a solid 6-foot-1, 224 lbs. In his last eight games with Tulane last year, he averaged an astonishing 202.3 rushing yards per game and 2.5 receptions per game. If given the opportunity to start from the get go, which is what it looks like so far, he could be the one player everyone will be talking about come week four.

It's one thing to predict good fortune for Matt Forte, but what do his coaches say about him?

Bears OC Ron Turner: "I love Matt Forte," Ron Turner said Sunday during a break at the Bears Expo. "He will definitely be an every-down back. He's got the size, he's got the hands. He's smooth as an athlete, very smooth. After nine practices, I'm not afraid to call anything in the offense with him. He's made a couple of mental mistakes, but not very many. He's handling it very well."

HC Lovie Smith on the notion that Chicago will look to add a veteran RB for depth: "We don't have any plans to do that," Smith said. "From Matt (Forte) to Adrian Peterson to Garrett Wolfe, to P.J. Pope, Matt Lawrence, we like all of our players and those are the ones that we're going with."

The news from Bears camp, specifically HC Lovie Smith's mouth, saying that they will not look to add a free agent RB says even more about the chances for success for Forte this year.

Where should you draft Matt Forte? In 12-team re-draft leagues, he is currently the 64th player and 29th RB being selected off the board. He is leaving draft boards near the beginning to middle of the fifth round. That will surely climb as the pre-season begins and the hype surrounding Matt Forte heightens. As of right now, he can easily be selected as a RB3, but that could change if his stock elevates him to the third round.

Last year the Bears had 385 carries from their arsenal of RBs. If Forte starts from the beginning, he is probably looking at a floor of 200 carries and a ceiling of 290-300. He averaged 5.6 YPC in his last two years at Tulane, but don't exactly expect that in his first year in the NFL - The Bears had the 3rd worst running game in the NFL last year, averaging only 83.1 yards per game and a paltry 3.1 yards per carry - the league's lowest. Let's project 4.2 yards per carry from Forte this year as it takes into account his college numbers, plus the Bears team rushing woes.

• 200 carries at 4.2 YPC = 840 yards
• 220 carries at 4.2 YPC = 924 yards
• 240 carries at 4.2 YPC = 1008 yards
• 260 carries at 4.2 YPC = 1092 yards
• 280 carries at 4.2 YPC = 1176 yards
• 300 carries at 4.2 YPC = 1260 yards

Those numbers will increase or decrease based on your opinion of his amount of carries or your opinion on his yards per rush. Feel free to do you own math with your own thoughts.

Forte is also a very polished pass-catching back. It is safe to expect 30 receptions with anything more than that being gravy. In PPR leagues, he is also one to be strongly considered.

Why should you target Matt Forte? First off, if everyone has the same opinion as you, do not be afraid to take him before you think he might go. He has the opportunity, the talent and the apparent go-head from his coaches to be the main back for the Bears this year. Can you be assured of that from any other RB being selected in the 4th or 5th round? Probably not. This alone makes Forte a perfect selection for your RB3. A draft strategy that is RB, RB, WR, RB would be ideal to get Forte in the 4th round, but if you have an early 5th round pick, you could possibly get away with RB, WR, WR, RB, RB.

Downside - by Mike Brown

Below you will find just a few reasons why you should avoid Gale Sayers, er -- I mean Matt Forte -- in drafts this season.

Let's face it. The hype surrounding Forte is reaching a fever pitch, which is somewhat understandable. After all, it's not every day that a starting running back suddenly emerges from a situation in which he wasn't one just a short time ago. But that's precisely what is happening with Forte after the fallout from the Cedric Benson release. And now a whole bunch of fantasy owners are hyping Forte as the next big thing.

Why? Because a lot of times, people want to be the guy who looks like a genius. They want to draft Matt Forte (probably a few rounds too early) so that IF Forte goes off and has a top-ten season, they can crow about it all year long. This inflates his value to ridiculous levels, because if several owners all want to be "the genius", Forte's average draft position keeps creeping higher and higher until it eventually gets to the point where he's being drafted ahead of FAR better (and safer) options.

Exactly what is so exciting about Forte's situation anyway, other than the fact that he's the "new" name? This is a team whose runners ranked 30th in the league in rushing yardage and dead last in yards per attempt last year. And that was with Cedric Benson, a former high first rounder, carrying much of the load. What is known about Matt Forte, aside from the fact that he wasn't thought of highly enough to even be a first round pick?

• The offensive line is not good at all, and it's been argued that their run blocking might be the worst in the entire NFL.
• The passing game, which provided very little help to take pressure off a year ago, certainly won't be any better now that number one receiver Bernard Berrian will be catching passes for the Vikings.
• Adrian Peterson is still around. Peterson had a role within the offense with Benson, whom the Bears were heavily invested in. So why would he be kicked to the curb for Forte? Besides, Peterson is already a very adept receiver and blocks well in pass protection. We haven't even seen Forte in training camp and some are already penciling him in for 300 carries! If there's one thing we've had pounded into our heads the last few years, it's that no runner -- no matter how talented -- is going to play very much if he is consistently allowing his quarterback to get flattened.

It's easy to get caught up in the hype and assume that being a newcomer starting RB = success. But this is still the Bears we're talking about, right? Let someone else take the flier on the unproven runner in a terrible situation.