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Faceoff - WR Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns
Posted 7/22, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Anthony Borbely
Braylon Edwards was drafted third overall in the 2004 NFL draft and prior to last season, he had failed to live up to the lofty expectations of that high of a draft pick. But everything came together for the former Michigan star in 2007 as Edwards had a monster season with over 1200 receiving yards and 16 TDs. That performance was a big part of the resurgence of the Cleveland Browns offense last season. Both Edwards and the team hope to build on last season's success.Edwards struggled as a rookie before suffering a torn ACL late in the season. Although he recovered and played all 16 games in 2006, he was clearly not at full speed all year. Many forgot about his injury and began to question whether he was a bust. Last year, that question was answered in a big way. Edwards quickly developed good chemistry with starting QB Derek Anderson and they both had career years in 2007. Edwards was a touchdown machine in college, so last year's high number of TDs should not have been a total surprise, but I do not believe anyone expected Edwards to accomplish those numbers so soon, especially with an unproven QB like Anderson.
Going forward, many are still questioning Derek Anderson. He was not always accurate last year and has Brady Quinn looking over his shoulder, but he nonetheless had a tremendous season and utilized his two big play weapons, Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow Jr., in leading the Browns to playoff contention. Anderson should be much better and more consistent with a year of experience under his belt and that bodes well for Edwards. I fully expect Edwards to contend for the top fantasy WR spot and although Randy Moss is likely to wind up at number one, I believe Edwards has as good a chance as anyone to be right behind Moss. I do not see a downside to Edwards this year and his numbers should be very close to what he put up last year.
Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller
Braylon Edwards made many fantasy owners very happy in 2007. He was drafted out of Michigan with high hopes and languished with two less than stellar seasons. Only after Derek Anderson was named the starting passer for the Browns did the former third overall pick emerge. Anderson's big arm and confidence in the young wideout led to a great season for both players. Braylon Edwards finished as the WR3 in fantasy football. He was able to accumulate the following stats:
- 80 Receptions in 153 Pass Targets
- 1,289 Receiving Yards
- Yards per Reception Average of 16.1
- 16 Touchdown Catches
While there is a decent chance that Edwards can equal the 80 receptions (especially with all of those targets) and 1,200 yards, the touchdown total will be very difficult to duplicate even if things go well. One thing to realize is how rare it is for a NFL pass catcher to score 16 times. This has only happened 15 other times in the history of the NFL. We also need to consider the possibility that Derek Anderson might not start and play every game. Brady Quinn is knocking on the doorstep and may displace the former Oregon State star. If so, it is very reasonable to expect at least a slight down tick in fantasy production.
When we examine some of the accomplishments of Edwards, we soon realize how difficult it will be to replicate 2007:
- Caught at least five passes in half of the games (eight)
- Had more than 60 receiving yards in 12 of the 15 games Anderson started
- Scored a touchdown in 11 games
- Scored multiple touchdowns in four games
With an ADP of WR4 and player 18 overall, Edwards has little chance of living up to the pick used. The only wide receivers drafted before Edwards are Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Reggie Wayne. In the second round of drafts, there are players with a lot more upside than the former Wolverine. Reggie Wayne is the end of the top tier at the position and owners taking Edwards at this pick are taking a risk. His ADP is reflective of his 2007 stats, not his 2008 potential. It is advisable for fantasy owners to take a running back with this pick and addressing receiver in the third round instead. Maurice Jones-Drew is a much better option in the middle of the second round. The drop-off in talent at running back is much steeper than at wide receiver after the top three are gone.