Faceoff - RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted 6/19, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Maurile Tremblay

There should be no doubting Maurice Jones-Drew's talent. His versatility, quickness, power, acceleration, hands, and big-play ability should be obvious to anyone who's seen the Jaguars play within the last two years. Jones-Drew can bounce or spin his way out of tackles; he can run inside or outside; he can run through defenders or around them. He's even a tenacious blocker. (Ask Shawne Merriman.)

Some fantasy owners may be reluctant to spend an early pick on Jones-Drew -- not because he lacks talent, but because he shares the Jacksonville backfield with Fred Taylor. Indeed, that does limit his potential.

But he shared the backfield with Taylor as a rookie two years ago as well, and then again last season. In fact, between the two of them, Taylor has gotten the majority of the carries in each of the past two seasons by ratios of about 58-42 in 2006 and 57-43 in 2007. That didn't stop Jones-Drew from finishing as the #8 and #13 fantasy running back, respectively, during those seasons.

I have no illusions that Jones-Drew will be the Jaguars' feature back and get 300+ carries in 2008. He is, for better or for worse, part of a committee. But ask yourself whether Fred Taylor is likely to have another career year at age 32. As Jones-Drew enters his prime and Taylor begins to wind down his career, will the Jaguars keep giving Taylor substantially more carries than Jones-Drew? Taylor had a great season in 2007, but his career YPC is nearly a half a yard lower than Jones-Drew's, and Jones-Drew is the better receiver and goal-line runner as well. I suspect the Jaguars will find fewer and fewer reasons to take Jones-Drew out of the game as the season unfolds.

If the Taylor's and Jones-Drew's carries are split 50-50 this year, that would give Jones-Drew about 30 more rushes than he's had in either of the past two seasons, and would likely make him a solid top ten fantasy RB. He was the #13 fantasy RB last season, and as of this writing he is being drafted as the #13 RB off the board this season.

So here's what it comes down to. Is Jones-Drew likely to get less playing time this year, or more? I'd say more -- which means he's likely to improve on last year's numbers, and thus to outperform his current ADP.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

Maurice Jones-Drew has been a very productive pro back, averaging over 4.5 yards per carry through 2 seasons of NFL action (166/941/13 rushing in 2006 (5.7 yards per carry); 167/768/9 rushing during 2007 (4.6 yards per carry)). He is also a very proficient pass catcher, with 46/436/2 and 40/407/0 receiving during 2006 and 2007, respectively. Anybody who gains over 1,000 yards combined in a season is a valuable member of his NFL franchise. Jones-Drew will continue to help make the Jaguars' rushing attack a unit to be feared throughout the league.

However, Jones-Drew is not alone in Jacksonville's backfield - his compatriot in the running back by committee, Fred Taylor, has thrived in tandem with Jones-Drew since the younger player arrived, posting over 5.0 yards per carry in each of his last 2 seasons (231/1146/5 rushing in 2006; 223/1202/5 rushing during 2007). Taylor finally got his first nod as a Pro-Bowler at the end of last season, a much-overdue accolade. Each player is very productive with a steady diet of 200 to 250 touches on the ball each season, and Jones-Drews' goal-line prowess addresses a career-long weakness in Taylor's game. They are a near-ideal stable of NFL backs.

Nowadays, some folks are reading tea leaves, consulting with their astrologers and determining that Jacksonville is going to make Jones-Drew the featured back this year, with Taylor taking a minor role, but honestly I just don't see how they arrive at this conclusion. Taylor gained 5.4 yards per carry last season, almost half-a-yard better than his showing in 2006 and almost a full yard per carry better than Jones-Drew's excellent effort in 2007. Obviously, Taylor still has gas in his tank. Why would head coach Jack Del Rio try to "fix" this situation if it ain't broken?

The answer is, he won't! Look for Jacksonville to come at their AFC South foes with a full blown RBBC featuring Jones-Drew and Taylor again this year, with numbers very similar to what we saw the last 2 seasons. Jones-Drew is a great back, but he's not going to post "featured back" numbers in his current situation down in Jacksonville - the team won't ask him to fill that role, not this year at least.