Faceoff - QB Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers

Posted 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

After getting the hang of things as a first-year starter in 2003, Jake Delhomme has been a consistent low-end QB1. So far, there's no sign that he's going to be any less of a QB after Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm, so betting on Delhomme to return to the ranks of startable fantasy QBs should be rewarded in 2008. There's even reason to think Delhomme could the career highs of 3886 yards and 29 TD passes he posted in 2004.

Fantasy football GMs have a short memory, and judging by Delhomme's early ADP, they have already forgotten that he threw for eight TDs in the first three games of 2007 before blowing out his throwing elbow. While he was unlikely to keep that pace up, that early performance shows that Delhomme was on his game, matching his track record as an aggressive QB who throws multiple TD passes in at least half of his games in any given year.

Fast forward to 2008, and Delhomme has hit every checkpoint in his recovery on time (or even ahead of schedule), and he has some new (and old) weapons in his repertoire. The Panthers went out and signed the WR Delhomme made the #1 wideout in fantasy football in 2004 -- Muhsin Muhammad, and they also signed DJ Hackett, an explosive talent who couldn't stay healthy in 2007. Adding them to Steve Smith, who created Carolina's downfield passing game on his own when the team didn't have a true #2 on the other side of the field, should only give Delhomme more opportunities to match his blistering early run of TD passes of 2007 in 2008.

The team also drafted Jonathan Stewart with their first round pick to put the power back in the running game, and spent next year's first round pick to move up and draft offensive tackle Jeff Otah. The Panthers have a schedule that includes many presumably weak pass defenses, including a Minnesota-Atlanta-Kansas City run from weeks 3-5 and New Orleans-Arizona-Oakland-Detroit-Atlanta run from weeks 7-12.

Jake Delhomme is an easy pick as your backup fantasy QB around QB15-18, and if things break right, he might end up being your starter.

Downside - by Marc Levin

There is a lot to like about QB Jake Delhomme's situation this year. Heck, I like him as a value play in the mid-rounds of fantasy drafts. That does not mean there is not a significant risk there. Even though there are nice reports from mini-camp about Delhomme's recovery from off-season elbow surgery, the real hitting and the grind of throwing hundreds of passes a day has not begun. Let's see how the elbow holds up after two a days. Also, the 2007 Panthers were 16th in pass attempts, but 25th in rush attempts in. The team will likely emphasize the run more this year. That likelihood is demonstrated by the drafting of RB Jonathan Stewart and T Jeff Otah.

Moreover, Delhomme is starting to lose his undervalued player status. The positive mini-camp reports have fueled an uptick in Delhomme's average draft position. Despite an ADP over most of the off-season as the QB16, he was drafted recently as the #13 QB in one of my drafts. And that ADP is likely to climb as training camp reports emerge regarding the return of WR Steve Smith and the progression of newly acquired WRs D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad. I would see a QB13 ranking as closer to Delhomme's upside than his floor. I still believe that if you can still get him near QB16 range or lower, he holds good value. But as he creeps closer to a top-12 QB ADP, you need to think twice.

Delhomme has been a top-12 QB only twice in his career. Once was 2004 when he had a remarkable 533 passing attempts (well above the team's historical numbers). The second was in 2005 when he ranked #11 and the team went to the Super Bowl. Anyone think this team's offense has returned to Super Bowl form? If so, by all means take Delhomme in the QB 12-15 range and believe you snagged value. Regarding a projection on his numbers, 3400 yards and 20 TDs is about as high as the footballguys.com staff projects Delhomme. Our highest projection gives him 266 points, which would have ranked him as the QB12 last year under our scoring system. Most of the staff projects Delhomme with lower numbers than that.

So, we have a QB with an increasing draft stock who is recovering from an elbow injury on a team that will run more this year. I like Delhomme, but temper your enthusiasm for a guy with a 3400 yard/20 TD upside with a consideration for where you may have to draft him.