Faceoff - TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

Posted 7/16, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mike Brown

Before getting into the more intricate reasons for drafting Davis, ask yourself one question: how many tight ends have a legitimate chance at being the number one ranked tight end in football? The answer is, not many.

Davis possesses that sort of talent. He has teased fantasy owners with his seemingly limitless potential ever since the 49ers drafted him. He's one of the most physically gifted players at his position, and combines strength and speed rarely seen by anyone. A large part of Davis' problem in San Francisco has been the game plan. He's been openly critical of a team that, to this point, hasn't learned how to use him yet. That should all change with Mike Martz in town as the new offensive coordinator.

I am, and have always been, a huge believer in Martz. He is the architect of the Saint Louis Rams "Greatest Show On Turf", and perhaps more impressively, he turned the Lions into a respectable offense in each of the last two seasons.

One drawback to Martz offenses has always been that the tight end never plays a significant role. Well, when the tight ends are Ernie Conwell and Marcus Pollard, that tends to happen. The fact is, Martz has never had a tight end of Davis' caliber before. Additionally, his wide receivers in Saint Louis were Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. In Detroit, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. These were supremely talented players in the prime of their careers. In San Francisco, he's got a well-beyond-his-prime Bruce and free agent Bryant Johnson as his starting wideouts. Suffice it to say, Davis is clearly the most talented receiver on the roster.

At spring minicamp, Martz said Davis was the hardest-working receiver there. That speaks volumes about his renewed dedication after a season full of mistakes. He seems to finally "get it", and he could deliver a top ten season this year in his sleep.

Besides, if you don't take Davis, who are you going to take instead? Jeremy Shockey? Heath Miller? Owen Daniels? None of those guys has a snowball's chance in hell at landing in the top five, let alone top three -- or top one. Those guys are barely a notch above the mid-tier tight ends. They aren't good enough to make them worthy of passing up on Davis' potential upside. If you're truly afraid of Davis falling off the map entirely, go ahead and pair him with a "safe" guy like Donald Lee or Randy McMichael. This way, you aren't getting crushed by losing out on "studs" like Shockey while at the same time having given yourself a shot at landing the TE1 in the eight or ninth round.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

Vernon Davis is an impressive physical specimen who has shown flashes of talent in his 2 NFL seasons, but has yet to translate his obvious athleticism into top-tier production. His best showing came last year in his sophomore season, with 85 targets for 52/509/4, which placed him at #14 among fantasy TEs. For all the hype that has surrounded this particular TE, #14 has to be considered a disappointing finish.

Not all of the blame lies at Davis' feet, of course. The 49ers' offense has been awful for the years that Davis has been in the league, starting with pathetic QB play. Trent Dilfer led the team in passing last year (113/219 for 1166 yards, 7 TDs and 12 interceptions over 7 games) on the way to a 32nd place finish for the 49ers in team passing offense (2320 yards as a team). Dilfer isn't even on the team anymore as the 49ers try to give Alex Smith one last chance at proving he's a NFL caliber starter - now with Mad Mike Martz coordinating the offense. Whether Martz will be able to turn a sow's ear into a silk purse with Smith and company has yet to be determined. Nobody would be surprised to see this offense struggle to start the season - it would be a pleasant surprise to see the team get things together by October, frankly. Davis is likely to be limited by the dearth of talent currently at the QB position, and the expected rough spots as the team as a whole learns the new offensive system.

One other concern with Davis has been his inability (to this point in his career) to play a full slate of 16 games - he's missed 8 of 32 contests since entering the league, with 14 of 16 games played last season. Hopefully, he can fight through the nicks and dings during 2008 and stay in the game throughout the season - time will tell.

In conclusion, Vernon Davis has all the talent necessary to excel at the NFL level, but he's been limited in opportunities due to the poor roster of QBs in San Francisco, and due to some health issues of his own. There is plenty of room for improvement in the City by the Bay, quite obviously, but it is unclear if the tide will rise enough to float Davis into the top 10 at his position during 2008 or not.