Faceoff - TE Owen Daniels, Houston Texans

Posted 6/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Pasquino

One of the best ways to find a player poised for a breakout season is to look for two things -- lots of touches (or targets) and few touchdowns. The reasoning is pretty simple -- the touchdowns will eventually come to players who get the ball often enough. Last year that worked like a charm for Jason Witten, and this year I am saying the same thing (although to a lesser degree) for Owen Daniels.

Last year Daniels had 63 catches on 94 targets for 768 yards, but managed to cross the goal line just three times. Comparing those stats (minus the touchdowns) to other top TEs from last season and you find a reasonable match with Chris Cooley. Cooley had three more catches and 18 more yards than Daniels, but five more touchdowns. Daniels was the #8 TE last year, while Cooley was #6. The biggest difference is the price you pay to get Cooley (TE #5 off the board, ADP of 67) versus snagging Owen Daniels about Round 9 or 10 (TE #11, ADP of 110).

That alone should be reason enough for you to pursue Daniels for your fantasy team, but also consider that his QB (Matt Schaub) was injured for most of 2007 and so was their #1 WR in Andre Johnson. Both players should be 100% ready for this year and help boost the Texans offense and its passing attack. With more defenders keying on Johnson, Schaub should be able to hit Daniels in the Red Zone with more regularity to boost those touchdown totals.

Owen Daniels is a huge value play for fantasy owners in 2008 who are looking for relatively cheaper TE options that could finish amongst the league leaders in both yardage and receptions. Daniels was sixth in both categories last season in what has to be considered a weak Houston offense. Expect more from both Daniels and the Texans in 2008 and fantasy owners to enjoy the benefits of both upticks.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

Let me preface that this face off is supposed to be a low side for Owen Daniels, but there is not a lot of downside to the third year pro, as you will soon see.

Owen Daniels is definitely a player on the rise. From his rookie season to his second year, he had 29 more receptions, 416 more yards, but two fewer TDs. That's quite an improvement. Some suggest the reason behind Daniels' increase in numbers was due to star wide out Andre Johnson's knee injury which sidelined him from week three to week eleven, which was only seven games, due to the Texans bye in week ten. Here is how those number played out for Daniels with and without Johnson in the lineup.

• With Johnson: Daniels had 30 receptions for 372 yards and 3 TDs (9 games) - over a full 16-game season, that would equal 53 receptions, 661 yards and 7 TDs
• Without Johnson: Daniels had 33 receptions for 396 yards and 0 TDs (7 games) - over a full 16-game season, that would equal 75 receptions, 905 yards and 0 TDs

The lack of TDs without Johnson in the lineup is probably just anomaly. I wouldn't read into that too much.

What does this suggest? Daniels had slightly more receptions and yards without Johnson in the lineup. Should that deter you away from selecting Owen Daniels this year? No, especially because of Daniels big increase in production from his rookie year to his second year. One would think he would also increase his numbers in year three. There's no reason to think otherwise at this time, but is he a 70-catch TE waiting to happen this year? I am not so sure, especially not if Andre Johnson is healthy all season long.

Houston has never had any one QB with more than 16 TD passes in a season in it's brief history. They did however have 24 TD passes last year, by far the most in it's short existence. The tight end position accounted for 25% of all of those TD passes (6 of 24). Daniels accounted for 12.5% of those (3 of 24).

Where should you draft Daniels this year? In 12-team redraft leagues, he is currently the 110th player and 11th TE being selected off draft boards as of late June. That's the beginning of the ninth round. Daniels is currently projected to finish as the 7th ranked TE, reaching 97 FP. The difference between Daniels, the 7th ranked TE and Heath Miller, the 12th ranked TE is only 10 fantasy points, however Miller's ADP is actually less than Daniels'. (99th player, 10th TE). You're getting more value with Daniels than you are Heath Miller and you can likely select Daniels after Miller. What's not to like?

So much for a low side, huh? His low side is the stigma still associated with drafting any Texans offensive player. Andre Johnson is quickly squashing that theory and Daniels will soon likely follow. The only other suggestion I have for those who are targeting Daniels - do so as your TE2. There are still six better TE options ahead of him. If you want to wait and grab a TE in the late single-digit rounds, take two at that time with Daniels and possibly Tony Scheffler, Heath Miller or Todd Heap. That way, you're not fully relying on Daniels to be your best option at the position.