Faceoff - QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos

Posted 7/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Clayton Gray

Jay Cutler entered his rookie season behind veteran Jake Plummer. Expected to learn from the sidelines, Cutler impressed the coaching staff so much that he was inserted into the starting lineup in December. He flashed great potential but made some rookie mistakes. As most young QBs do, Cutler improved in his second season. After starting five games in 2006, he was handed the starting role last year and kept it all season. Let's take a look at the areas he improved in the 2007 campaign.

• Completion percentage (from 59% to 64%)
• Interception percentage (from 3.6% to 3.0%)
• Turnovers per game (from 2.0 to 1.4)
• Yards per attempt (from 7.3 to 7.5)
• Yards per game (from 200 to 219)
• Net yards per attempt (from 6.1 to 6.8)
• Sack rate (from 8.7% to 5.5%)

That improvement allowed Cutler to finish among the top ten in passes completed, passing yards, yards per pass, yards per completion, and net yards per attempt. Finally, Cutler was the 11th best fantasy quarterback in 2007.

The Supporting Cast

The offensive line protects well. Granted, this unit isn't as stellar as it was back when Alex Gibbs was in town, but Cutler's sack rate of 5.5 was perfectly fine (consider that Jon Kitna was sacked 8.3% of his pass plays last year).

While Brandon Marshall's early-season status is unclear, the Denver receiving corps is still very good. The hobbled malcontent Javon Walker is gone. To replace him, the Broncos added Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert in free agency and grabbed Eddie Royal in the second round of the NFL Draft. Miscast as a starter last season, Brandon Stokley returns but will move to his natural slot position in 2007. Tony Scheffler also returns and will be a huge cog in the passing game from the tight end position.

There isn't a star at running back, but Selvin Young, Michael Pittman, Andre Hall, and rookie Ryan Torain will form a very nice committee. However, it is clear that this offense will rely upon Cutler's arm to excel. Another rookie (Peyton Hillis) will likely beat out Cecil Sapp and greatly improve the play at the fullback position (Hillis is an excellent receiver).

< B>Examining Cutler's Diabetes

Over the offseason, Cutler announced that he has Type-1 Diabetes. The disease greatly affected him last year as he was unaware of it yet it caused an incredible weight loss of 32 pounds during the season. While he didn't show an extreme drop in production to end the 2007 campaign, he did turn in some terrible games (at Oakland and at San Diego) and a clunker (at Houston) in December. It's not difficult to think losing 32 pounds had something to do with his poor showing to end the season. With a proper diagnosis, Cutler will easily be able to treat his diabetes and will be able to play a full capacity.

As the tenth quarterback off the board (and just barely ahead of Eli Manning and Marc Bulger), Cutler offers great potential to move into the upper tier of fantasy starters. The Denver ground game will garner some attention, but the passing attack will be the focus of the offense. With Marshall, Scheffler, and a bevy of other receivers, Cutler will have plenty of targets and should continue to improve as a passer.

Downside - by David Baker

Jay Cutler is a strong-armed quarterback entering his third year in the NFL and his second as the starter come opening day. He definitely came on as last year progressed and many believe this year will equate to even further progression. As you ponder how he battled undiagnosed diabetes last year, it seems within reason that with proper awareness, diet and medication, Cutler should grow even further. Yet, I still find myself wary to project him too highly in 2008. It's not that I think he'll drop off the face of the fantasy world, it's just that I fear he won't be nearly as productive as others predict.

One significant reason I fear Cutler next year is the health of his main receiver, Brandon Marshall. Marshall suffered a freak accident in March that caused nerve damage in his forearm. While his doctors are saying that he is rehabbing well and is even ahead of schedule, not having Marshall at 100% could put a big damper on Cutler's numbers in 2008. His other best receiver is seemingly tight end Tony Scheffler, who is battling foot problems of his own. Adding Darrell Jackson at receiver is nice, but he has had turf toe problems and I'm not sure his addition (along with others such as Keary Colbert) counteracts the worries from Marshall and Scheffler.

Most importantly, his offensive line is aging and mediocre at best and Denver's lack of an effective running game could add up to bad news for the offense in general. The Broncos drafted talented left tackle Ryan Clady to start immediately for Cutler's blind side, which certainly bodes well for the future for the team, but talented rookies, especially on the offensive line and at left tackle, does not always equate to immediate success. Center Tom Nalen is 37 and had arthroscopic surgery recently, and backup Casey Wiegmann will be 35 in July. That and other changes to their offensive line could mean a continuing downward turn for their effectiveness and that once magical unity and ability to gel they had could be a thing of the past.

And while Cutler faced one of the toughest schedules in the league last year, this year is projected to me just as tough of a schedule for him. There are an awful lot of positives going for Cutler and he seems to be the fantasy value soup de jour this year at quarterback. After losing so much weight inexplicably last year, the diabetes diagnosis was almost a breath of fresh air and reason allows that a season with the disease treated should be that much better than last year. But questions at receiver and more importantly on their offensive line give me more than enough to pause long and hard about taking him as a top ten QB. In many ways on paper he sure sounds good, but paper doesn't catch any passes or protect you from opposing defenses.