Faceoff - WR Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted 6/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jason Wood

It was easy to discount Kevin Curtis last year. He was reasonably productive as the St. Louis Rams 3rd receiver, but that was playing for Mike Martz in an offense where seemingly every WR on the roster is a lock for 40-50 catches. Curtis signed on with Philadelphia where he was going to have to acclimate to an entirely new offensive system; and be asked to play a starting role for the first time. But those who chose not to discount him were well rewarded. Curtis not only adjusted to being an Eagle but ended up as the team's best wide receiver by a country mile.

• 77 receptions
• 1,110 yards
• 14.4 yards per reception
• 6 touchdowns
• 17th ranked fantasy receiver

While it was easy to discount Curtis last year, it's laughable that so many people appear to be discounting him this year. Based on current ADP data, Kevin Curtis is being drafted 31st among receivers. Why on Earth would you presume Curtis is going to finish materially lower than he did a year ago? Over the last five seasons, the 31st ranked fantasy receiver has averaged:

• 62 receptions
• 752 yards
• 6 TDs

Curtis would need to see his stats DROP by 24% to reasonably finish at his current ADP. Yet, in my view, he's far more likely to IMPROVE on his statistics for the following reasons:

1. The Eagles are one of the most pass happy teams in the NFL
2. Donovan McNabb is one of the most productive passers in the league
3. Curtis remains the Eagle's best wide receiver
4. Curtis will have another year of experience in the complex Eagles WCO; which bodes well for natural improvement

Remember, Kevin Curtis would offer huge value on draft day if he simply matches last year's production. Yet, a receiver entering his second season in an offense while all else remains intact is generally a good bet to IMPROVE. Curtis should be an every week WR2 in PPR leagues and a solid option in traditional redraft leagues in all but the most difficult of defensive matchups.

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

After spending his first four seasons as a pro in St. Louis, Kevin Curtis signed as a free agent in Philadelphia, where he enjoyed his best season to date. Curtis tallied 77 catches for 1110 yards and six scoring grabs. This was good for a WR17 finish. The Eagles had no other offensive weapons after Westbrook, leaving more opportunity for Curtis. Reggie Brown did not play well until late in the season and L.J. Smith struggled with injury.

Kevin Curtis had one HUGE game in 2007. This game accounted for over 40 (of his 147 total) fantasy points. But, he had only three other games over 10 fantasy points on the season. David Patten had more games with at least 10 fantasy points than Kevin Curtis. In this huge game against the porous Detroit Lion defense, the former Utah State star caught 11 of 14 targets for 221 yards and three touchdowns. What a game for fantasy owners. It was one of just a few good games for Kevin Curtis in 2007.

When we step back and look at the game in comparison to the season, it accounted for 15% of the receptions, 20% of receiving yards, and 50% of the touchdowns. Including this game, Curtis had four games over 10 fantasy points. But, he had five games under five fantasy points. Further, he had 12 games under eight fantasy points. Since he is a deep threat that only caught touchdowns in four games, fantasy owners did not know which games to start the former Ram. He had as many games with less than three fantasy points as over 10 points. There were many disappointed Curtis owners in 2007.

The health of Donovan McNabb is another consideration. His reported shoulder soreness is a worry. If McNabb is deemed hurt, owners should avoid Curtis as much as possible. The Eagles will spread the ball around better in 2008. Veteran tight end, L.J. Smith is finally healthy from the sports hernia injury that he battled all last season. In addition, the Eagles drafted DeSean Jackson to add big plays to the offense. He is very fast and should take some of deep targets. Reggie Brown played well at the end of the year and should continue to develop. Also, the Eagles traded for Lorenzo Booker and will utilize his skills in the passing game.

So far this offseason, drafters are getting wise to Curtis. He has an ADP of WR32 (player 84 overall), even after the WR17 finish. Kevin Curtis is bound to have a big game or two in 2008, but one never knows when that will be. There is a ton of risk associated with drafting Kevin Curtis and inserting him into your starting lineup each and every week. Fantasy owners will be disappointed once again if they try to guess which weeks the former Ram slot receiver will blow up and which he will let down.