Faceoff - TE Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Dallas Clark surprised many by vaulting into the top of the tight end rankings. He set career highs in receptions, receiving yardage, and touchdowns in 2007. But, the former Iowa Hawkeye had his worst yards per reception average since coming into the NFL. With the injury to Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning relied on his veteran tight end to make clutch catches.

Let's take a look at this career year (In only 15 games):

• Targets: 101 (previous high was 58)
• Receptions: 58 (previous high was 37)
• Receiving Yards: 616 (previous high was 488)
• Touchdowns: 11 (previous high was 5)
• Yards Per Reception Average: 10.6 (previous low was 11.7)

This was good for a TE5 finish. His best season before 2007 was TE11 in 2004. Clark is being drafted at the level of his 2007 numbers. Fantasy owners are betting that the former first round pick will be able to duplicate his 2007 season. What makes fantasy owners think there is upside in picking Clark as TE5 and player 69 off of the board? Here are a few reasons:

• Career season came while playing only 15 games. Even though Clark has never played all 16 games yet in his career, it is still possible considering Clark playing at least 15 games in three seasons. He has only missed 13 games in five seasons.
• Was able to take advantage of the void left by the Marvin Harrison injury. There is no way to tell if Harrison will play in 2008, or for how long.
• The Colts are very thin at the wide receiver position and use Clark all over the field. He is an over-sized wide receiver in a tight end's body. Clark is not asked to block much, but is used primarily a receiver.
• The departure of Ben Utecht will mean more targets for Clark. The Colts drafted a rookie tight end to fill the void (Tamme), but the transition to the pro level is difficult for first-year tight ends.
• If Clark is able to get his yards per catch average back up to his career norm, the upside is around a 10% bump in the yardage total.

Other than the Harrison injury, the opportunity to produce good fantasy numbers is the same as in 2007. Last year, Clark had some big games for fantasy owners. In eight of the fifteen games Clark played, he scored over 10 fantasy points. He also had three games with two touchdowns. In each of those three games, Clark had at least six receptions and sixty yards receiving.

The ceiling for Clark is even higher than the 2007 numbers. But, the floor is probably around TE10 with any drop in scoring grabs. The receptions and yardage should remain fairly constant. Also, if Marvin Harrison does struggle to come back healthy, fantasy owners can expect another tremendous season from the for Iowa star, especially if he can play all 16 games.

Downside - by Andy Hicks

Dallas Clark has a great season in 2007, ranking 5th amongst tight ends and registering a whopping 11 touchdown receptions and a career best 58 receptions for 616 yards. Therein lays the problem. These are all career peaks and like a lot of things in life, buying at the maximum value is going to end up in disappointment in the majority of cases.

Clark was re-signed to a 6 year contract in the off season after being designated as the Colts franchise player. He is obviously very valuable to Indianapolis. That however will not translate into continued fantasy success for the 29 year old former 1st round draft pick. Let's look in a bit more detail at where Clark is likely to fall short of his 2007 production this year:

The Colts needed someone to throw the ball to outside of Reggie Wayne. Marvin Harrison was injured most of the year; Anthony Gonzalez was a rookie and the production from the other wide receivers was below par. Clark stepped into the void nicely, but the bad news for Clark is that Marvin Harrison may be fit enough to at least be a rival for possession, Anthony Gonzalez is one year on in his development and the Colts have got some nice young prospects for their WR4 & WR5 slots. Indianapolis also selected 2 tight ends in the 2008 draft, including Jacob Tamme, who essentially is a receiving tight end.

The 11 touchdowns registered by Clark in 2008 easily led all tight ends, even the elites such as Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez & Jason Witten. Do not expect a repeat or anything approaching that figure again. 58 receptions are also likely to be difficult to approach as well. In fact in would not surprise in the slightest if Clark were to regress to numbers similar to his previous 4 seasons where he averaged 30 receptions for 400 yards and 4 TDs. What do you base this years numbers on, a solid 4 year indicator or a 1 off figure?

Some will be sucked in by his production in 2007 and grab Clark to be their starting tight end. If you do, expect him to be injured for part of the season as he is yet to play a full 16 game schedule and has missed a career total of 13 games in 5 years. Also expect numerous 1 or 2 catch games. He recorded 6 of these in 2007, where he ranked 5th. How many will he get if he regresses? If you are looking for a TE1, look for the guys who are likely to be one of their team's top targets. Clark was No.2 for the Colts in 2007, but it would be a major shock if he was any better than the 3rd choice of Peyton Manning this season. Overall, Clark looks like being poor value this year against his ADP.