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Faceoff - WR Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers
Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Clayton Gray
The expectations for Chris Chambers as a Chargers were unrealistic last season. There is a long list of receivers that struggle in their first season with a new team, and Chambers' situation was even more difficult since he came on board in mid-season. Still, Chambers settled in as the season wore on and was very productive down the stretch. Let's look at some of his pluses for the 2008 season.A Full Offseason In San Diego
This is pretty basic. Last year, Chambers had zero preseason work with Philip Rivers. Of course their timing will improve this season after a full training camp.
A Quality Quarterback
In his time with the Dolphins, Chambers caught passes from Jay Fiedler, Ray Lucas, Brian Griese, A.J. Feeley, Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, Joey Harrington, Daunte Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, Trent Green, and John Beck. While we could spend a few paragraphs arguing over how talented Philip Rivers is, he obviously compares favorably to that list of quarterbacks. Catching passing from a better quarterback will certainly help Chambers' numbers.
The Strong Ground Game
Of course you don't need to be reminded that LaDainian Tomlinson is pretty good. Opposing defenses obviously must focus on the most dangerous runner in the NFL, and that opens up the coverage for Chambers. His speed will translate to numerous deep hookups with Rivers.
In mid-July, Gates stated that his toe was at 65% and that he wasn't sure when he'd be at full strength. There is a very real possibility that he will not be fully healthy to start the season (he might even be on the PUP list for opening week). With Gates unable to play at his normal level, there will be some targets available for other receivers. Brandon Manumaleuna is unlikely to be able to fill that void, so look for the wide receivers to increase their production.
Downside - by Maurile Tremblay
Chris Chambers had been the focal point of the Dolphins' passing attack since his stellar rookie season in 2001. Before coming over to San Diego last year, he was targeted at least 130 times in four straight seasons with the Dolphins. His role in San Diego, however, is quite different. While he was generally among the league leaders in targets while playing for the Dolphins, he is just one of many offensive weapons the Chargers will feature.To get an idea of the difference, consider that Chambers averaged 11 targets per game last season with the Dolphins but just 6.3 targets per game with the Chargers. (He was targeted more often during the playoffs, but that was when Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson were hobbled.)
Even as the focal point of Miami's passing offense, Chambers gained over 1,000 yards only once in his seven-year career, and has been a fantasy WR2 or better (i.e., top 24) only twice.
With the Chargers, he will undoubtedly get many fewer targets than he did in Miami, and will thus be hard-pressed to match his past production.
In the two seasons that Philip Rivers has quarterbacked the Chargers, the team has thrown to its wide receivers just 206 times last year and 211 times the year before. No WR had more than 80 targets in either season. In the past five seasons (during which time the Chargers have run the same basic offense they will employ again this season), the Chargers have thrown to their WRs an average of 224 times per season, and the team's WR1 each season has averaged fewer than 40% of those targets.
It is true that Chris Chambers is better than any WR1 the Chargers have had during that period -- but Vincent Jackson is also the Chargers' best WR2, and last year's rookies, Craig Davis and Legedu Naanee, are also promising players who will have expanded roles in the offense this season. Moreover, Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson will still be the team's most heavily featured offensive weapons. So the size of the WR pie in San Diego probably won't get any bigger, and even if Chambers ends up with 40%-45% of the team's WR targets (a higher ratio than has been typical in San Diego), that's still probably only 90 to 100 targets.
Even at the 56% catch rate Chambers enjoyed with the Chargers last season (compared to a career catch rate of 48%), it looks like it will be difficult for Chambers to grab 60+ receptions.
He just won't get the ball enough to please his fantasy owners.