Faceoff - QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins

Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mike Brown

Drafting Jason Campbell is one of the smartest fantasy decisions you can make this season. He has the upside of a top ten QB, but at well below market price. He's a big guy with a bigger arm and the pedigree of having been a first round pick three years ago. He's also done nothing to suggest that he can't "hack it" in the NFL, compiling a 58% completion percentage and a 22-17 touchdown to interception ratio during his two years.

Campbell suffered a serious knee injury last year in Week 14. It couldn't have happened at a worse time, as he was coming off the best four-game stretch of his career when the injury struck. He missed the remainder of that game, plus the final three games of the regular season. Despite that, he still finished as the QB17. His off-season recovery has gone well, and the injury should not hamper him.

Perhaps the simplest way to provide Campbell's upside is to address the bogus supposed downside.

The Redskins are installing a new offense, Campbell's seventh in the last eight years. But it's only his second in three NFL seasons -- hardly an outrageous total. Not to mention, it may be a new offense for the Redskins but it's very familiar to Campbell. The west coast offense being installed by Jim Zorn is similar to the one Campbell ran his senior year at Auburn, and he has already commented on his familiarity with it. It's also much simpler than Al Saunders' old system, which can only be a good thing for a young player.

One can expect that Washington will be throwing the ball. A lot. They didn't draft two premier wide receivers and a flashy tight end just to watch them collect dust. This was a team that needed defensive help, yet spent high picks on offensive guys. That suggests a desire to build a high-octane passing game. It'd be shocking if Washington doesn't throw the ball a lot more in 2008. Hell, Campbell can probably improve by compiling numbers even if he isn't actually any more effective as a passer.

Even without those new skill guys, the Skins return a corps of pass-catchers that are amongst the better ones in the league. Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and Clinton Portis are all Pro Bowl talents, and this is a deep receiver stable.

In our spotlight, my esteemed colleague Jason Wood wrote that you should not rely on Campbell as a starter. But that's the beauty of it. No one needs to rely on Campbell as a starter. He's going so late in drafts that no one needs to jump the gun. You could draft a "safe" option (Eli Manning, David Garrard) that will produce and then grab Campbell late without anything to lose.

Campbell was the QB17 a year ago despite missing four games. Now he's being taken at QB19 after being handed even more offensive weapons and installing an offense that is a pass-happy. What am I missing?

Downside - by Andy Hicks

Some people are penciling in Jason Campbell as a solid fantasy backup with upside. Don't be one of them. Campbell is a risky prospect heading onto the 2008 season. He has a new coach, a new offense, new receivers and a backup who proved more than useful in his relief at the end of 2007.

It is entirely possible that Jason Campbell makes the next leap and becomes a productive player, but this season will be difficult after the retirement of Joe Gibbs. In comes a rookie head coach in Jim Zorn and a rookie offensive coordinator in Sherman Smith. Does anyone seriously expect an improvement in the passing game under Zorn & Smith? Even if in the long term these 2 are Hall of Famers, don't expect overnight results. More than likely the Redskins will use their strengths and run the ball through Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts.

To add to the pressure, Jason Campbell will be learning another new offense. The poor guy just cannot get continuity and now gets another new playbook to digest. The West Coast Offense (WCO) planned by Zorn is an entirely different system to what was run under Gibbs and Al Saunders and to make things even worse his mechanics will be adjusted to play under the scheme. Anyone expecting a productive first half of the season is kidding themselves. Did I mention that 2 rookie receivers will be heavily involved in the running of this WCO?

Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas may be future stars, but for now they're rookies. Learning any offense is something that most young receivers struggle with, never mind a WCO. With a new coach and the likelihood of significant adjustment time, Campbell will find it difficult to build a rapport with either of the rookies. Kelly & Thomas are tall; the two guys currently starting aren't. Santana Moss has been disappointing the last two years and Antwaan Randle El will never be a productive starter. Of course Chris Cooley is there, but how Campbell can get consistent fantasy production in 2008 amongst this mix is hard to determine.

Todd Collins, while not a serious threat to Campbell's status as starter, at least proved himself to be a viable backup option at the end of 2007. If as is a distinct possibility, Washington starts poorly then Campbell's spot will be at risk. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Collins comes in as the experienced man to steady the ship. The franchise isn't locked into keeping Jason Campbell beyond this year, so it's possible that they look elsewhere in 2009.

Jason Campbell is a very talented young Quarterback, but he'll need to be all that and more if he is to be a decent fantasy option. Look for him to feature on your waiver wire after the cold hard reality hits the poor guy that drafted him. Maybe he is worth consideration later in the season, but don't let it cost you a draft pick.