Faceoff - RB Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints

Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

Reggie Bush is one of the more difficult players to evaluate heading into the season. On face value he has been a disappointment thus far with a yards-per-carry figure in the LenDale White/Cedric Benson area (3.7/3.8). Unlike those two however, Bush is a major contributor as a receiver, has the potential to be a more productive runner if utilized correctly and has speed to burn.

Make no mistake; this is a crucial year for Bush. If he can't live up to the expectation surrounding him since day 1 he risks getting labeled an underachiever or even worse a bust. There are many who believe he has shown all he can and then there are those like me, who feel Bush is a ticking time bomb ready to explode into the upper fantasy echelons. Delusional? maybe, but if the Saints can find a way to not telegraph their intentions so obviously to opposing defenses, then maybe Bush can become what we know he's capable of.

Part of the problem is that Sean Payton and the coaching staff made a mess of using Bush to his optimum capacity in 2007. The 2006 season finished with Bush primed and ready to become a superstar with 3 massive fantasy games in the last 4 meaningful regular season games. 2007 however started in disastrous fashion with the entire offense in disarray. Things picked up and Bush returned to some semblance of form after the bye week, unfortunately just when it looked like Bush and the Saints were getting into a groove he damaged his knee in and was a shadow of his best during his last 4 games. Mercifully the Saints shut him down for the rest of the season.

Of prime concern is his inability to make a big play as a runner, is this a freak abnormality or is there a legitimate reason why Bush hasn't so far? I get the feeling that once he does, he'll be fantasy gold and I want to be on board before the train arrives.

Reggie Bush will get an increase on carries on the mid 150 carry seasons he's had so far. Last year he was on target for around 250 carries before his injury and with slight improvement should see a little more than that. Even if he sticks to last years projected rushing attempts and can register 4 yards a carry that's a 1000 yards, without noting the inevitable rushing touchdowns. As for his receiving ability he was on target to smash the record reception total held by Larry Centers of 101 and already is in the lifetime top 10 for RB receptions during his rookie season (88). Those in points per reception leagues know he's a first rounder; injury is the only thing stopping him finishing in the top 12 of non PPR leagues as well.

Downside - by Marc Faletti

For his career -- I repeat, his career -- Reggie Bush averages 3.7 yards per rush. Even in his supposedly electric rookie season, he could only muster 3.6 per carry. The kid has jets, but Bush is not an every-down back in the NFL, and that makes him a gimmick player who's being taken way too highly in nearly every league.

As a talent, Bush can dazzle in the open field. But he's an impatient runner who doesn't allow holes to open up and drives up the backs of his own guys. He also lacks wiggle in tight spaces; Bush seems to need a lot of room around him to make the big juke. He's also ineffective at the goal line so you never know when he'll pick up a TD for you. Thus, between the tackles, he's almost a non-factor. This explains why the Saints want McAllister healthy, why they took a look at Shaun Alexander, and why fantasy owners are buzzing about Pierre Thomas.

Bush can create mismatches as a receiver, but in PPR leagues, Bush's per-game averages put him around RB15 last season. Even when he caught 88 balls in 2006, he couldn't nudge past the 13th RB in most PPR leagues. And if you don't get points for catches? He'll be lucky to crack the top 20 RBs at all.

If Bush had it in him to become a stud feature back, he would've shown it last year when the team really needed him. Instead, he flopped and eventually broke down. The Saints fell from 5th to 12th in points primarily because the ground game with Bush was so ineffective. Now they're talking about using him more on punt returns. That's a strong sign that 1) even the Saints are admitting he's a gimmick player and 2) he'll be lucky to get the same average touches per game on offense. He'll find his way to 1000 total yards, maybe 6 TDs, and one "wow" game that won't make up for the 15 ho-hum ones.