Faceoff - WR Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers

Posted 7/16, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mike Brown

When discussing a player's upside or downside, one must always factor in expectations surrounding the player. If a player is expected to have a great year, it's tougher to find value. If a player is expected to have a poor year by the masses, the upside is much easier to find. And when the masses don't recognize that the player is primed for success, it becomes that much easier.

Such is the case with Isaac Bruce, who is poised to have a very good year, but seemingly no one knows it. He's being taken as the WR47 on average (in the thirteenth round) because he stumbled to a poor season a year ago. Yet despite that poor season, he was still the WR41. And his situation has done nothing but improve since then.

He left Saint Louis, having signed with the 49ers this offseason. Bruce has played second fiddle to Torry Holt for years. No more. While the Saint Louis passing game has been better than San Francisco's, do not underestimate the fact that Bruce will now be the primary wide receiver according to new offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

Ah yes, Martz. The man who resurrected the Rams offense a decade ago, and spent the last two seasons as Detroit's offensive coordinator. His tenure there was generally considered a disappointment, despite the fact that he turned the Lions from a laughingstock offense to one that put up over 4,000 passing yards both years he was in town. Did you hear me? He got 4,000 yards out of Jon Kitna just one year after Detroit failed to crack 3,000 passing yards total. That means he helped increased the passing output by over 1,000 yards in one offseason! Martz is known as a coach who will throw the ball all over the yard. So now we've got a primary receiver on a team that will throw, throw, throw. Warming up yet?

Bruce played under Martz for years in Saint Louis and has a lot of experience in the system. Don't underestimate the importance of familiarity within this offense. It's based on precision and timing, and typically takes awhile to get in tune with. Martz definitely tends to gravitate towards "his" guys, or did you not see Mike Furrey lead the NFC in receptions in 2006 or Shaun McDonald of all people nearly crack 1,000 yards last year? If these guys can be legitimate options, please don't tell me Ike Bruce is not.

Bruce may not put up top ten numbers because he is 35 (still just one year older than Terrell Owens) and the San Francisco offense is in much the same state as Detroit's when Martz arrived there -- meaning they've got a ways to go. But Bruce still runs terrific routes, and nobody is going to double team a 35 year old receiver -- meaning top twenty is certainly well within reach. And barring catastrophic injury, there's almost no way for Bruce to finish any lower than his current -- ridiculous -- ADP.

Downside - by David Yudkin

While I personally don't see Isaac Bruce on the low side this year (he was one of my value picks), there are some areas for concern. For starters, while we fully expect Mike Martz to come in and work his magic yet again, the 49ers offense has been pretty poor the past few years. In fact, Bruce's 1995 season (119-1781-13) INDIVIDUALLY was better than the 49ers team WR production in each of the past three seasons (117-1369-9, 111-1598-7, 109-1508-8).

While Martz may come in and retool the San Francisco offense to emulate the powerhouse Rams teams from 8-10 years ago, the strengths of the 49ers are different than those St. Louis teams. The Niners' best offense weapons are arguably Frank Gore and Vernon Davis, not their wide receivers. Extensive pounding of the ball and tight end usage have not been Martz' strong suits to date. Bruce will be 36 during the season and has lost a step or two and no longer has Torry Holt as his partner in crime to draw double coverage.

Beyond Bruce, the 49ers receivers are a bit inexperienced (Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, and Jason Hill). Ashley Lelie rounds out the receiving corps, but he's been mostly an afterthought since leaving Denver. Unless another receiver emerges, teams could easily devote more coverage to Bruce, and that could easily suppress his numbers.

Let's not forget that the 49ers have equally unproven quarterbacks. Alex Smith boasts a career 19 to 31 TD to INT ratio. He also ranks dead last in yards per attempt (5.85) out of the 22 quarterbacks with at least 800 total passing attempts over the past three seasons. Shaun Hill fared slightly better, but he averaged just 167 passing yards per start last season.

Another key concern is Martz' minimum pass protect blocking scheme. Sending out as many receivers as possible got Trent Green, Kurt Warner, and Marc Bulger hurt in St. Louis. Given that San Francisco tied for the league lead in most sacks allowed with 55 last season, whoever the QB may be could end up in intensive care or running for his life on a regular basis.

Mike Martz may have been the savior in St. Louis and Detroit, but there are no guarantees that he can cure all the ills of what's been a very stagnant 49ers offense. If San Francisco fails to absorb the complex Martz scheme and other players see significant playing time, Isaac Bruce could be in for some pedestrian production this year.