Faceoff - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins

Posted 7/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Marc Levin

Admittedly, the Dolphins' ginger approach to Ronnie Brown's recovery has this Dolphan a bit worried. That said, Ronnie Brown carries a favorable ADP right now due to those concerns. As of this writing, Brown carries a RB18/34th overall ADP, and is being drafted behind Reggie Bush (non-PPR) and Laurence Maroney. All I have to say about that is . . . really? In a non-PPR league, you all feel more confident running those guys out there at RB2 every week?

The Dolphins were just as bad last year as they project to be this year -- and the offensive line should be an improved unit. Despite the pitiful state of the rest of the team, Ronnie Brown was tearing up the league before his injury (he had over 900 total yards in the first seven games and averaged over 18 fantasy points per game). While I expect him to be a bit tentative early in the year, the team has an early bye (week 4). That will give Brown a little bit of time to test the knee, gradually work more, and then carry the load from week 5 forward. If the recovery was smooth and Brown was projected to be 100 percent on day one, I think Brown would cost a mid-2nd round cost rather than a late 3rd. If you are confident with your round one and two pick, waiting for Brown to start tearing it up in week 5 is a smart move.

Okay, I admit the presence of Ricky Williams has me a little bit worried about Ronnie Brown's opportunities. But, I see Ricky working into the Miami offense in a similar way to how a middle reliever or a set-up man works in baseball. I believe Ronnie Brown will have more red zone opportunities, and will be fresher in the 4th quarter of games, thanks to Ricky Williams. Here's how I imagine it going: Ronnie starts, Ricky is worked in often as the team attempts to establish the run. Whether or not that is successful in the first half, Ronnie starts the second half and Ricky relieves him throughout the third quarter. Ronnie Brown is fresh in the 4th to carry the bulk of the load and finish the game.

Even if the running game struggles, Ronnie Brown still has a job. He is a phenomenal blocker and receiver. If the team trails (as they are expected to for most of their games), it will be Ronnie, not Ricky, who the team relies on during a comeback effort. In other words, I think Brown will average at least 20 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game.

Looking back on Brown's career so far, the kid racks up yardage. While he has not found the end zone as often as fantasy owners would like, the total yardage numbers are there. An owner can rely on double-digit fantasy scores from Brown almost every week. Those will occur even more frequently in PPR leagues. An owner receives good value at RB late in the 3rd round if that owner receives a player with that kind of consistent production, especially if the RB has the upside potential Brown showed to start the 2007 season.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

The last time we saw Ronnie Brown, he was leading the NFL in total yards and leading the entire fantasy world in points, despite playing on a team that struggled to notch one win in 2007. The last time we saw Ronnie Brown, he had just torn his ACL and he was the RB for a head coach who was known for turning backs into yardage machines. Chances are someone in your league with be thinking more along the lines of former than the latter, which means you will not end up with Brown on your team unless you overpay for him.

After fighting off Jesse Chatman in an RBBC, Ronnie Brown became Mr. Everything in the Miami offense, doing his best LaDainian Tomlinson impression for Cam Cameron, who helped turned LT into such a fantasy beast with his undying commitment to get his RB the ball in space. Brown caught at least five passes a game in addition to a feature back load of carries, and 150 total yards was quickly becoming his floor for a game instead of his ceiling. Then he tore his ACL playing defense after an interception, and the MVP of the Dolphins and fantasy teams around the world became worthless for the remainder of the 2007 season.

Fast forward to today, and the landscape surrounding Brown couldn't be more different. Cam Cameron has been evicted from the Dolphins brain trust and he's now trying to turn Willis McGahee (and Ray Rice?) into focal point of the offense in Baltimore. While Brown has been rehabbing his knee after ACL surgery (which by all accounts is going well), Ricky Williams has been putting on a show in OTAs. Williams has shown "an extra gear", and Dolphins beat writer Omar Kelly called him the most impressive player in the practices. The Bill Parcells regime welcomed the Texas legend into the fold with open arms, so you they are going to use him. The bottom line is that Ronnie Brown is going to share time with a running back who looked better than him when they shared time in 2005, which is not what you want in a 3rd round pick. Too bad you have to take Brown in the 3rd to land him in most leagues.