Faceoff - WR Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted 7/16, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

Based on current ADP, Reggie Brown is getting drafted as the 38th WR off fantasy draft boards - the same spot he ranked last year but below his 2007 ranking of WR20.

After Kevin Curtis put up better numbers than Brown last year, many feel that Brown has taken a step back. However, Curtis (106.9) and Brown (103.3) put up almost identical numbers in 15 games last year. The main scoring differentiating factor was the game against Detroit, where Brown saw only 2-23-0 to Curtis' career best game of 11-221-3.

Brown got off to a very slow start, but by the end of the year he was more productive than Curtis. Over the final month of the season, Brown bested Curtis 40.6 to 26.6 in fantasy points. Forgotten in all of this is the chance that Brown could actually have learned and adopted along the way and he could be in for even more production than in the past.

Compared to 2007, Brown actually saw more targets (111 vs. 91) and receptions (61 to 46). He scored fewer fantasy points because he scored half as many TD and averaged almost five fewer yards per catch. Both of those should see an increase if QB Donovan McNabb stays healthy all year. Brown's number of targets and receptions are trending in the right direction.

With the Eagles trying to limit the workload of RB Brian Westbrook, there may be some additional targets and receptions this year if Philadelphia is serious about keeping Westbrook fresh and not overusing him.

Brown stands an excellent chance to rank as a borderline WR2 or a solid WR3 in 12-team leagues this year.

Downside - by Chris Smith

I believe Reggie Brown does have some worth in fantasy leagues as my ranking for him displays (30th-best receiver). However, there are a number of reasons why his upside is limited going forward, and I'll illuminate on those reasons below.

Reasons to leave Brown outside of your top-32 in 2008

• Lack of progression through his first few seasons with the Eagles. Brown had a decent rookie season with the Eagles, hauling in 43 passes and 4 touchdowns but has struggled to become a legitimate top receiver in years two and three. He has had some highlights but the #1 stat that jumps out at you is his best reception total in one season is only 61 grabs which he set last year. He has struggled to create space on the field, resulting in less targets and receptions than you would like to see from a fantasy starting WR.
• Lack of touchdowns. Brown has scored just 4 touchdowns per year in two of his three seasons. The only exception was the 8 touchdowns he put up during the 2006 season
• Question marks in regards to QB Donovan McNabb's ability going forward. McNabb has been unable to stay healthy throughout the past three seasons and as a result, his skills may have begun eroding. Last year he only tossed 19 touchdowns in 473 passing attempts and struggled to put up points like in years past.
• He is not even the first or even the second read in most of the Eagles passing plays. Last season, Brown was delegated to the 3rd read in many situations, behind fellow WR Kevin Curtis who emerged as a strong threat and RB Brian Westbrook who was explosive as always in the passing attack. There just are not as many looks for a third read in an offense than the 1st or 2nd favorite will garner.

Final Thoughts

Reggie Brown is an unexciting receiver pick this season. He is unlikely to exceed his best numbers over the past three seasons, making his upside somewhere around 61 receptions and 8 touchdown grabs. However his lack of upside make a number of other receivers around the league more intriguing for fantasy football, really hurting his fantasy value for 2008. He'll be a marginal fantasy starter in leagues that start 3 receivers but don't expect too much from him going forward.