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Faceoff - QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Sigmund Bloom
It's hard to believe that Drew Brees will throw 655 passes again in 2008, but it's just as hard to believe that Brees will endure a four week stretch like the month of September 2007 this year. Brees has cemented his place among the elite fantasy QBs and should not be taken lower than QB4 in any format.Drew Brees threw an inordinate amount of passes in 2007, and at least some of that was due to losing chain moving RB Deuce McAllister early in the season, and his backfield partner, Reggie Bush, late in the season. The Saints also endured an embarrassing 0-4 start during which it seemed like no one could block for Brees -- who is one of the least effective QBs in the league outside of the pocket.
Seven out of Brees nine games with 40+ passing attempts happened in that opening stretch, or with Bush and McAllister out of the lineup. Forty passes a game is too many, and the Saints will aim to not repeat that kind of pass/run split in 2008. That is no reason to downgrade Brees. He produced the same yardages and only two less passing TDs in 2006 with almost 100 less attempts than he threw in 2007. In 2007, only three of his 10 games with more than one TD throw came in those 40+ attempt games. Brees doesn't need to throw a Martzian number of passes to be one of the most productive QBs in the league. In fact, having to lean on Brees is a bad thing for the offense. A more balanced offense should benefit Brees efficiency without hurting his overall production.
The Saints offense will get McAllister back in 2008, and they've also discovered a good backup in Pierre Thomas, so the running game should be revived. Robert Meachem will get a chance to redeem himself from his poor 2007 rookie campaign and should add playmaking ability to the WR corps. Remember, Brees was QB4 last year despite throwing only 1 TD in the first four weeks of the season. He will again be a top 5 QB and a no-brainer every week starter in 2008.
Downside - by Cecil Lammey
For many seasons Drew Brees has been one of the top QBs in the league. So why would 2008 be any different? Well, 2007 could have given us a glimpse into what could happen this year. In the first four games of last season Brees and the Saints offense was struggling. Brees had only one TD to go with nine interceptions! To his credit, Drew bounced back in a big way and finished the year with 28 TD passes and only 18 interceptions.The NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" league, and the New Orleans Saints already know that they can't challenge for a Super Bowl with a porous defense that puts them in shootouts every week. Brees' numbers will suffer because of the Saints playing in closer games. Most of his numbers in 2007 came when the Saints were behind, where they had to abandon the run and instead air it out.
The return of Deuce McAllister and the emergence of Pierre Thomas could also put a sizable dent in Brees' production. New Orleans wants to pound the ball in between the tackles and take more time off the clock (this also keeps their defense off the field more). However, that's not the only reason we could see a decrease in the passing games productivity. In 2007 Brees had 15 of his 28 TD passes come from inside the opponent's five-yard line. With McAllister and Thomas being relied on as the power-backs, it means that the Saints are far more likely to run when they get that close to the endzone. In the end Drew Brees will still be a solid fantasy starter, just don't expect him to light up the league.