Faceoff - QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Posted 6/19, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Not only was Tom Brady the #1 fantasy quarterback last year, he posted the highest fantasy point total and VBD of all time under FBG scoring. The next highest QB was Tony Romo (with over 4200 yards and 38 total TDs), who trailed by only 119 fantasy points, or roughly 7.5 points a game To put this in perspective: Brady could throw one less touchdown a game, and he would still have a comfortable lead over Romo's 2007 numbers, which themselves would have been only 7 points behind QB1 in 2006, and QB1 by over two points a game in 2005. In other words, Brady could drop precipitously from his 2007 numbers, and still be the clear #1 fantasy QB. That alone should make him an easy late first/early second round pick. If he comes anywhere near his 2007 production, he will be a massive value at that ADP, and there's reason to think he will.

Even when the Patriots went to their "conservative" game plan, giving Laurence Maroney 20+ carries in the AFC divisional playoff and conference championship games, Brady still threw five TDs and about 235 yards a game -- and that was with an uncharacteristic three interceptions vs. San Diego. Not to mention that Brady was clearly struggling with an ankle injury -- since the Pats are tight about injury information, we don't know how severe it was, but it was most definitely affecting his play. So, a banged Brady running a muted passing game would still contend for fantasy QB1.

Brady also absorbed one totally worthless game in the sludge and muck vs. the Jets in week 15 to the tune of only 140 yards passing and zero TDs. While this is little consolation to his owners that lost playoff games that week due to his weather-related dud (he was far from the only QB affected), it shows that Brady basically put up his record-breaking numbers in a 15 game season.

Would you believe that the Patriots were also in the NFL's top 10 in rushing attempts per game? Brady's numbers were not due to a Mike Martz-like over-commitment to the pass.

The Pats made a long-term commitment to Randy Moss, and the one piece of the passing attack that has gone, Donte Stallworth, wasn't even in three wide sets by the end of the year. Chad Jackson should provide just as much speed and ability to stretch the field, and another sure-handed TE, David Thomas, will be added to the mix. Brady will not miss a beat, and he's likely to lead fantasy teams to as many playoff runs and titles as he did last year.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

Tom Brady just completed the most prolific season for a QB in NFL history last year. He finished the regular season with an NFL record 50 TD passes and only 5 INTs - he scored two rushing TDs as well. Pretty impressive season isn't it? So why in the world should we downplay his production for 2008? A decline from those numbers would still be career years from nearly every other single starting QB in the league, give or take one or two. Having said that, the purpose of this write up is not to deter you away from selecting Tom Brady in your upcoming draft, but to inform you that what comes up must come down. At least so says NFL history. Perhaps he is not worthy of being drafted in the first or second round of your upcoming draft? Let me explain why.

I am of the belief that the Patriots passing game won't be anywhere near as volatile as it was last year. Don't get me wrong, it will still likely be one of the better, if not the best passing offense in the league, however I don't see them being 50 TD pass good. Being curious, I decided to take a look to see what history has to say about high TD pass seasons and how that QB fared the year after. This is what I found...

Out of the top eight TD-pass seasons in NFL history, only the immortal Brett Favre had more TD passes the next year (and it was only one TD pass more). On average, QBs from this select group had 16.2 fewer TD passes the following year.

Below are the stats for each of the top 8 TD passing seasons in NFL History, not including Brady's 50 last year.

• 2004 Peyton Manning, 49 TD passes. 2005, 28 TDs = 21 fewer the next year
• 1984 Dan Marino, 48 TD passes. 1985, 30 TD passes = 18 fewer the next year
• 1986 Dan Marino 44 TD passes. 1987, 26 TD passes = 18 fewer the next year
• 1999 Kurt Warner, 41 TD passes. 2000, 21 TD passes = 20 fewer the next year
• 2004 Daunte Culpepper 39 TD passes. 2005, 6 TD passes = 33 fewer the next year
• 1996 Brett Favre 39 TD passes. 1997, 35 TD passes = 4 fewer the next year
• 1995 Brett Favre 38 TD passes. 1996, 39 TD passes = 1 more the next year
• 1999 Steve Beuerlein 36 TD passes. 2000, 19 TD passes = 17 fewer the next year

So what does this mean? Not only does the phrase "what comes up must come down" apply in this historic trend, but it happens rather suddenly - the next season in fact. OK, let's just say Brady followed suit with the above statistical trend. It would suggest he would have 33.8 TD passes in 2008. If that's the case, is that worthy of being draft in the first round? The second round?

Not counting last year's 4806-yard season, Brady has averaged 3743 yards passing in his last five years with 25.8 TD passes. His monumental 2007 season was 1000 more yards and 25 more TD passes than his average. That's a tremendous variation from his average season. Is Randy Moss and Wes Welker that big of a difference?

Brady's average over his last five years, not including 2007 is equal to approximately 300 fantasy points. On average each of those seasons saw about seven other QBs with more fantasy points than Brady's average of 300. For those of you who subscribe to the 33.8 TD pass projection mentioned above and let's say 4000 yards passing, his fantasy points would be approximately 335 (4 points per TD pass, 1 pt per 20 yards). On average each of the last five seasons saw about 2.5 other QBs with more than 335 fantasy points.

It's very possible that Brady will not put up colossal numbers again this year? Prior to last year his average finish among QBs in the last five years was 7th. Could 2007 have just been a career year? Brady is a great QB, but he is usually not the best fantasy QB. If he reverts back to his five-year average, don't say you weren't warned.